2-3 brands will face elimination by the end of 2015?

2015 is a crucial year for Chinese handset makers, according to the Taiwan Science and technology news. In China alone, there are dozens of big brands called names that are waiting to carve out the world's largest mobile phone market, and in fact because China's mobile phone penetration rate has reached a very high level, the decline in shipments, the market saturation is a difficult place manufacturers can not avoid. In a word, "gruel".

Among them, Huawei, Lenovo, ZTE and Millet are still the leaders of the domestic market, believing that their power reserves will allow them to pass through 2015 years of competition. But for some of the new generation of independent brand small manufacturers (especially in the smartphone industry), I am afraid the days will not be so good, some people predict that the end of 2015 will be 2-3 brands will be eliminated.

Next, look at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Institute of Telecommunications published the latest authoritative information:

China's existing 800 million mobile phone users, the penetration rate of about 95%;

2014, the Chinese mobile phone market cumulative shipments of 5.2 billion, a decline of about 21.9% from 2013;

Among them, the smartphone market share reached 86%, shipments of 8.9 billion, the same period fell 8.2%;

Android phones shipments of 4.9 billion, down 12.4% year-on-year;

2G mobile phone shipments accounted for the total market share of 4%, 60.497 million, the same period decreased 64.4%;

3G mobile phone shipments accounted for the total market share of 7%, 220 million, the same period decreased 46%;

4G mobile phone shipments accounted for 9% of the total market share, 171 million.

But instead of looking at these rigid information, it is better to go to the mobile phone market to go a lap (such as Shenzhen Huaqiang North, Wuhan Guang Bu Tun). Smartphone total annual shipments of up to 389 million, and how much "water" it? Perhaps 20%-30% are still in the warehouse of the dealers, or in the shelves of the direct store, affixed with the "price for Sale" label. After all, how many people will continue to buy mobile phones in the saturated Chinese market?

In other words, after 2014 years of price war, manufacturers will now focus on "clear inventory", which will further cause the Chinese mobile phone market continues to shrink, the handset is even more difficult to sell. By the end of this year's inventory, the market share will even continue to fall by 10%.

For big brands such as Huawei, Lenovo and Millet, they will be able to support the company's revenues by expanding in the international market in the face of shrinking Chinese markets. For example, Huawei's annual report shows that its global sales revenue in 2014 is expected to exceed 287 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% per cent year-on-year, with smartphone business becoming the main force supporting Huawei's revenue and a 32% growth in consumer business.

Huawei now bets smartphones on the Glory series, which begins in the middle but gradually sinks. And the recent series of glory to enter the U.S. market High-profile, re-built for the high-end brand positioning to avoid price competition.

This approach seems to be feasible. But from the mobile phone industry for many years the law of development, if the brand hit the cheap low end of the label, to return to the high-end market is not easy.