2013-year auto market will break 20 million: self-breakthrough Next generation

"If there is no accident, China should be able to sell more than 20 million cars in 2013," he said. January 12, in the "2013 China Automotive Market Development Trend Summit Forum", the Chinese Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the Sch Jianhua) Deputy Secretary-General to make the above speculation. On the day before the Forum, the Chinese Automobile Association has released the latest statistics: 2012 China's auto production and sales of 19.2718 million vehicles and 19.3064 million vehicles respectively, the year-on-year growth of 4.6% and 4.3%. 　　This is China's auto market for the second consecutive year, production and sales growth of less than 5%, 2011, the number is 0.84% and 2.45% respectively. "This shows that China's auto market has entered a period of steady growth." 　　"Sch Jianhua believes that once the auto market year sales base of more than 19 million, it will be difficult to maintain rapid growth trend, but even so, the industry's eagerly awaited 20 million sales targets are expected to be achieved this year." "We have brought together a number of domestic car manufacturers in charge of the forecasts, we combine the trend of macroeconomic development, the 2013 Chinese car market demand for about 20.8 million vehicles, it is equivalent to China's total car sales minus exports and imports." 　　"Sch Jianhua that 2013 China's automobile exports will be about 1.3 million vehicles, imports of about 1.45 million vehicles, from this calculation, 2013 China's total sales of cars in the 20.65 million, the market growth rate of about 7%." 　　Will the SUV be the main driver? In the context of a gradual upturn in the macroeconomic environment, almost everyone in the industry believes it will be easy to achieve these three goals this year. The agreement given by the Chinese Automobile Association is that this year, the sales of new cars will be around 20.65 million, up about 7%; China Auto Circulation Association for used-car market estimates is that this year the market will be year-on-year 20%~25% growth, to 6 million ~650 million trading scale 　　And the state-owned motor vehicle (600335) Co. Ltd., which is responsible for statistics of imported vehicles, has been awarded the 2013 Import vehicle market will recover with a 10% growth weakness. 　　But regardless of the type of market, different forecasting agencies and car companies are pinning their hopes for next year's auto industry on the SUV model plate. According to the FIA data statistics, 2012 SUV sales completed 2.0004 million units, an increase of 25.5%, the contribution to passenger car growth of 39.7%, after the sedan. "This year, we believe that the SUV market demand is still strong, is expected to reach 2.46 million vehicles, the year-on-year growth rate of 23%, is the fastest growth in several major models of the plate." 　　"Sch Jianhua said. The heat of the SUV market is making it faster for different car companies to introduce SUVs. 　　Take the import car market as an example, 2012 SUV has become the market's leading models, the market share of 53.2%, Renault, Hyundai and other ranked not by the former import car dealers, because of SUV products, still in the field of imported vehicles occupy a place. "According to the data we know, 2012-2013, there will be 28 imports of new cars into the Chinese market, including SUV products up to 13, which does not include such as Peugeot 3008, Audi Q3 in 2013, such as domestic SUV models. 　　Wang Cun, senior manager of National Machinery Automotive Services Co., Ltd., judged that the market share of SUV in the imported car will continue to rise this year. None of the three goals has been achieved, despite a 2011-year slump, in the early 2012, the automotive industry is still looking forward to the market, that after the stimulus policy exit, the car will gradually return to the right track, and the three big car city has drawn a sprint target: New vehicle sales impact 20 million vehicles, the number of imported cars to sprint 1 million ; The second-hand car trade broke through 5 million. 　　But the end result is that none of the above three goals has been achieved. 　　According to Shen, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Auto Circulation Association, the sales figures for new vehicles in 2012 were 19.3064 million, and the number of imported vehicles was probably only 970,000, while the final turnover in the second-hand market was about 4.8 million. "Before, we have always believed that the Chinese auto market is driven by demand, as long as the energy requirements of the release, will affect the automotive industry, and thus the rapid expansion of capacity." But today we see that the production and marketing figures are still not more than 20 million vehicles, and the company's capacity planning has reached about 35 million, such a digital comparison has been shown that China's auto market supply and demand is reversing, consumer choice will become the decisive force in the market. 　　"Shen said. The formation of such a buyer's market, has decided that the new car market rapid growth of the sweet time will be gone, by its impact, second-hand market sales are also facing a variety of factors. 　　One of the most obvious features is that the restriction policy is accelerating the integration of new cars and used cars. "From the mature regional market performance, 2013 years later, our car market will be to a large extent to reflect the new car-used vehicles linkage such a mature car market rules and characteristics." "Shen said. 　　In Beijing, for example, Beijing Asian Games Village car Trading Market (hereinafter referred to as the Asian city) provided data show that 2012 replacement sales has become the capital of new car trade growth impetus, the old new way has accounted for 59% of the number of new car transactions, new car updates on the number of cards accounted for the total number of cards 60.36%. "This indicates that the future of the used car market will be the same as the new vehicle market, with very good prospects." "Shen has done a calculation: Now the domestic car ownership of 100 million vehicles, according to the average transaction price of 50,000 yuan, the average number of transactions per vehicle is three times, the current turnover of used cars can reach 15 trillion, and in the next decade, China's car ownership is likely to reach 300 million, the average price of used cars will be reduced to 40,000 yuan, 　　The number of transactions per car will be changed from three times to five times, according to this calculation, ten years after the total size of used cars will reach 60 trillion yuan, is a veritable "gold mine." Independent brands are still breaking out in January 11, the FIA held a press conference, the first Chinese brand outNow instead of the independent brand in the statistical Nomenclature, the association's executive vice president and secretary General Dongyan said the change was aimed at boosting consumer awareness of the brand in domestic cars. This may be the Chinese Auto Association's efforts to change the dilemma of their own brands. 　　According to its statistics, although last year 9, October, the sharp decline in Japanese cars, gave the market share of independent brands to the opportunity to rebound, but from the development situation throughout the year, the independent brand market share is not only lower than the joint venture brand, but also lower than the performance of previous years. 2012, the independent brand passenger car sales 6.485 million units, an increase of 6.1% per cent, the market accounted for 41.9%, down 0.4% year-on-year. "If the export factor is deducted, the domestic sales growth rate of the self-owned brand is only 3.9%." 　　"Sch Jianhua believes that the development of independent brands in the coming period is grim." Euyangminggao, director of the State Key Laboratory of Automotive safety and energy conservation, said that this year, the survival status of the independent brand is still in commercial vehicles, micro-vehicle field "two breakthroughs" in the mainstream intermediate sedan, "breakthrough in the middle." "For some time to come, the main problem of independent brand development is still the price of joint-venture brands and the challenges of the high-end market in their own research and development capacity constraints." According to Lei, president of Xinhua consulting Company, at present, some independent brand models have formed a rising foundation, consumers to some high-end independent brand models also formed a preliminary brand understanding, but the problem is that some autonomous vehicle companies always want to pass a car or a generation of cars to complete the brand premium ability to upgrade, but in fact, It takes time after the second or third generation models.