2014 mobile gaming market will exceed 20 billion yuan

Mobile games is the most explosive growth of mobile internet, the most powerful field, 2013 is the year of mobile game outbreak, the next 2 years will continue to benefit from the "Terminal + Network dividend" and in the outbreak of growth stage. 2015 mobile game market size is expected to 400~500 billion, but also the industry is optimistic about the expected 2015 mobile game market scale over the end of the tour.

Investment point of view, in the high-speed growth and capital combination of the field, the industry has a bubble, the existence of risk is the objective reality, both rational treatment and attention, but also to seize the huge investment opportunities. We judge next year a-share game plate investment will be differentiated, not limited to a-share, investment vision to more international, globalization, to "a-share + Hong Kong + U.S." Trinity, which will have a lot of investment opportunities. At this stage, looking at the mobile game market investment opportunities, we most value in the high-speed explosion-type growth industry with the ability to constantly seize market share of the company, for different mobile game industry chain links, we generalize for a strong quality platform, boutique research and Development Group, the first line of outstanding distributors; At the same time, the expected driving investment opportunities remain.

December 2013 ~2014 Year March This 4 months time, is the mobile game worth watching window, the focus is:

1, micro-letter: Micro-letter game monthly water is over 500 million, a single micro-trust game products are expected to impact the monthly flow of 200 million.

2, the travel Spring brings micro-letter user activity jumped and promote micro-credit game accelerated three or four-line city infiltration:

The annual spring Festival is a large-scale national population movement, from the east to the mainland, from the economically developed cities to the three or four-line city, the rural subsidence, in the flow of the Internet and mobile Internet applications also brought about the infiltration and promotion. This year's Spring Festival brings a wider range of micro-letter popularity and popularity: so that the micro-trust users in the beginning of the January 15 over 300 million, quickly break through 400 million, 500 million, the current micro-letter users have been 600 million; next year's Spring festival will promote the popularization of micro-credit, is expected to bring mobile games in the three or four-line city is poised and even popular: micro-letter users after 600 million, become a super large user-scale mobile platform, the future total number of users will continue to go higher and is expected to break through the 1 billion level, on the basis of more important indicators is to see the monthly active user size, will directly affect the commercialization of micro-letter performance, Tencent earnings report 2013 Q1~Q3 's micro-letter +wechat monthly active users of 194.4 million (+228%), 236 million (+177%), 271.9 million (+124%), we expect the micro-letter after the Spring Festival after the monthly active users will step up, It will also bring the promotion of micro-credit games. With the new round of 4G development and 3G, WiFi network coverage further optimization, the three or four-line city of the Internet environment further upgrade, as well as intelligent terminal hardware prices further lower, three or four-line City mobile gaming market potential will be further released.

First, the mobile game will continue to double the growth trend in the next 2 years

2014 Market size is expected to 200~250 billion, 2015 market size 400~500 billion. According to our continuous tracking of the industry, as well as with many of the industry and senior professionals in the exchange of discussions, we predict the 2014 mobile gaming market will be more than 20 billion, optimism is expected to impact 25 billion, compared with 2013 10 billion market size, the growth rate of more than 100%; The 2015 mobile gaming market will be over 40 billion and likely to hit 50 billion.

1, next year mobile game market will be the peak of the daily water over 100 million: this year we have seen from the beginning of the month water 10 million of products, to the current monthly flow 100 million products have 3 ("Run cool every Day", "Heroes" (expected), "Time Hunter"); One of the most promising is the first to appear on the micro-gaming platform;

2, mobile games There is a lot of room for development. Growth points include: 1, hand tour users are currently concentrated in the one or two-line city, there is a lot of development space, in the three or four-line city is also equivalent to Virgin land, 2, high school, college students, 40 years old, mobile game penetration is still very low, space is very large. 3, Millet mobile phone pricing is low, but for the group, including college students, pricing is still high, prices have to cut the space, the lower price of smartphones there are a large number of people need.

Second, 2014 was a year when micro-letters fully demonstrated their ability to absorb gold, micro-credit games 2014 is expected to do 80~100 billion, Tencent mobile gaming platform will be over 10 billion (Tencent mobile gaming platform covers the micro-letter, hand Q, Application treasure, mobile phone QQ game Hall and mobile phone qzone, such as Tencent main platform) , exceeding previous market expectations. Our overall judgment on the 2014-year micro-credit game is: At the beginning of the month to see micro-letter monthly water 600 million, the year saw the water rushing 1 billion, the end of the month to see the water over 12~15 billion, micro-trust game 2014 year over 6 billion is very easy, we forecast the 2014 micro-credit game market scale 80~100 billion is biased cautious forecast.

Tencent Mobile gaming platform currently accumulated 570 million registered users, about 40% of the users are previously in the PC game did not cover the user, meaning that more than 200 million gamers are new users, micro-letter in which play a very important training game users and the role of the user to guide the payment. The future of micro-letters will continue to moderate, heavy game, "national hero" is just the beginning.

1, micro-trust game in 2013 only 4-5 months on the line, August 5 micro-trust Game Center officially online, in the current 4-month cumulative online only 7 games, the average monthly new online 1~2, 2013 cumulative water is expected to be 1 billion, one-month water is expected to be 500 million. Single product has "run every day Cool" and "National hero" 2 months of water over billion products appear, while creating moonrise water over 200 million of the progress of products, which "national hero" has shown its potential.

We measure the micro-trust Game 2013 8 ~ December of the monthly water is 40 million, 80 million, 150 million, 2.6~3 billion, 4~5 billion (estimated): August-November Monthly New Game 2 ("Every day Love Eliminate", "every day Lianmong"), 2 ("Master of Rhythm", "Run cool every Day"), 2 (" Happy bucket landlord, "Plant vs Zombie 2 Tencent Social Edition"-only on Android's Tencent Market, 1 ("Heroes"), December is expected to be online 1~2 (which is more certain 1 is "Fruit Ninja Tencent Edition").

We predict the micro-letter November months water 2.6~3 billion composition: "Every day love Eliminate" + "every day Lianmong" + "Rhythm Master" + "Happy Dou the Landlord" + "The Plant vs Zombie 2 Tencent Social Edition", the month water in 100 million ~1.4 million; "Running cool every day" is expected to flow around 160 million, which "every day cool run" On November 15 After the release of a new version of the 12-day recharge breakthrough 100 million yuan (November 15 ~11 Month 26th), the release of the first week after the top-recharge breakthrough 70 million.

We predict the micro-letter December months water 4~5 billion composition: "Every day love to eliminate" + "every day Lianmong" + "Rhythm Master" + "Happy Dou the Landlord" + "The Plant vs Zombie 2 Tencent Social Edition", the month water in 120 million ~1.4 million; "Running cool every day" is expected to water 1.2~1.6 billion; Monthly water is expected in 1.2~1.5 billion, the product since November 29 on the line, the data performance is strong, November 29 ~12 month 2nd daily Water innovation is high, is expected to be 2 million, 3 million, 6 million and 8 million, "national hero" is a card game, emphasis on degrees, the life cycle is relatively long, is still at the beginning of the product, after a few months of grinding will be likely to become the domestic monthly water over 200 million of the product; "Fruit Ninja Tencent version" is expected to be on the line before Christmas micro-letter, expected monthly water 0.3~0.4 billion, on Friday December 6 in the Tencent application treasure to delete the test phase, is a micro-credit game 2nd overseas Products Subsequent Tencent games will also launch the "Temple Escape 2 Tencent version", the 2 products by the domestic fun agent distribution, we in May this year, the company conducted in-depth research.

2, micro-credit game follow-up is expected to be on line products include: Mainland China agent game "Fruit Ninja Tencent Edition", "Temple Escape 2 Social Edition" (the first 2 respectively by Halfbrick UBM and Imangi UBM Development, by the domestic music agent issued), "Swallow The Moon Wolf" ( South Korea Wemade Development), "God of the Devil Tower" (China, Hong Kong Madhead Development), the domestic Third-party game companies to develop "bubble gingerbread Man" (Crystal Think move), Tencent since the research "national Aircraft War", "every day rook" and so on.

(This article comes from 199IT)