In April this year, China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded $2 trillion trillion, at $2.09 trillion trillion. Liu Mapping intern Chen Shijun China's faster economic growth and a possible future appreciation of the renminbi, pushing China's foreign exchange reserves to break through the 2 trillion dollar mark in the two quarter and continue to be the world's leading leader. The total amount of foreign exchange reserves reached a record high of $2.132 trillion at the end of June, up 17.84% from a year earlier, according to the central bank's data released yesterday. Among them, the first half of the foreign exchange reserves increased 185.6 billion U.S. dollars, only two quarters added 177.8 billion U.S. dollars. Zhang Ming, deputy director of the International Finance Office of the Institute of World Economics and Political Sciences, China, said yesterday that relying solely on trade surpluses and FDI (foreign direct investment) could not explain the significant increase in foreign exchange reserves in the two quarter. Zhang Ming analysis, two quarters, foreign exchange reserves a net increase of 177.8 billion U.S. dollars. The trade surplus can only account for 34.8 billion of dollars in the growth of foreign reserves, FDI can only explain 21.3 billion U.S. dollars, the value of the euro against the dollar appreciation of the effect can explain 33.9 billion U.S. dollars. In the second quarter, he reckons, there were about 87.8 billion dollars of unexplained capital inflows. Recalling the recent short-term international capital flows to and from China, Zhang said that the short-term international capital outflow in the second half of last year reached its highest peak in November to January this year, with a total outflow of $122.6 billion in three months. The scale of short-term international capital outflows has slowed sharply since February this year. According to Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green, the first quarter has 60 billion dollars outflow. At the end of the quarter, the total size of the reserves was $1.95 trillion trillion and only 7.7 billion dollars in the quarter, the data showed. Zhang Ming stressed that, given the first half of the new renminbi credit supply 7.37 trillion yuan, once the second half of the international capital continued to pour in, then domestic capital market in the internal and external liquidity of the attack, it is difficult to avoid the emergence of a new round of asset price bubbles. It is noteworthy that Citigroup's latest study, released yesterday, said the surge in external reserves could lead to a rebound in the stock and property markets, raising the risk of future policy tightening. Citi notes that the renminbi has depreciated against the dollar and the real effective exchange rate since the end of last year, but after the latest data on the reserves, a further effective devaluation of the renminbi would be unlikely, but could be renewed, given China's relatively strong economic strength. To curb a new round of asset price bubbles, Zhang advised: first, we should quickly change the current excessively loose credit policy, restart the credit line management of commercial banks, raise the statutory deposit reserve, and restart the three-year central vote issue; second, to strictly check the bank credit funds illegally into the stock market and the phenomenon of housing; third, strengthen the management of capital inflow. Zhang Bin, deputy director of the International Finance Research Institute of the World Economic and Political Academy of Cass, pointed out that encouraging enterprises to go out is becoming a way for the government to dissolve the risk of foreign exchange reserves. In response to the above, some experts pointed out that the solution to the high risk of foreign exchange reserves, these methods are only "symptoms" rather than "radical" strategy.Yu Yu, director of the Institute of Social Sciences, said that this may solve the stock problem in foreign exchange reserves, but it cannot solve the problem of traffic growth. He believes that the key to solve the problem is to take measures to achieve the transformation of economic growth mode as soon as possible.
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