"28" handover bar to determine the market continuity of the conversion in high valuation areas

Into the June, the market has been rising blue chips. Pu FA Bank, China Petroleum, Vanke A and other weights index shares strong rise, pushing the index to conquer 2,700 points of the integer pass. And the earlier theme stocks, poor performance shares mostly flat, or even fell, "28" conversion phenomenon caused wide market concern.　　In my opinion, it will directly determine the continuity of the future market. The transformation appears in the high valuation region from the "28" phenomenon transformation to look, has its inevitability.　　Observe market weight stock performance, since 1664 point rebound has also seen this phenomenon, but whether from the performance of varieties, or price increases, this conversion is more than ever. By the depreciation of the United States dollar, international commodity prices rebound and inflation expectations, the share market in the financial, real estate, resources and other varieties of strong performance. In addition to the external factors, the author believes that, from internal analysis, mainly reflected in the following reasons: First, the broad-market valuation advantages of blue chips relatively obvious. Since the market rebounded from 1664 points, a lot of theme stocks, poor performance shares, restructuring stocks, but the slow performance of large stocks, the increase is small. From the valuation point of view, the current market more than 100 times times PE shares accounted for more than 50%. When IPO market is about to be issued, such stocks are facing greater investment risk. And from the Shenzhen-Shanghai A-share average PE, has been close to 30 times times, but the stock market valuation is relatively in a reasonable area; second, the new fund positions led to market stocks. Since this year, the new fund issued 1000多亿份, and the big fund, such as the celebration, Hui-Fu Index fund, etc. just entered the period or the establishment period, choose to have the valuation advantage of the large stocks are the most important investment strategy; third, the IPO market issue will bring the risk　　The choice of a reasonable valuation of the large stocks is also in the risk factor consideration. The main focus of the three major plates from the "28" conversion characteristics, the performance of varieties mainly concentrated in real estate, finance and resources. Take real estate stocks as an example, the strong market in Wednesday, innovation high, real estate stocks start work. On that day, the real estate Sector index volume rose, refreshing rebound high. 132 stocks in the plate only 5 small fall, including the pan-Hai construction, Asahi Fei investment, billion city shares, such as 9 stocks sealed in the trading, "million gold recruit" rose in more than 5.65%, of which poly real estate rose to 8.99%.　　Trading a stock of the first four units of the day to buy a seat, the total purchase of 133 million yuan, accounting for the same day the total turnover of 52%. Not only this, the bank shares in the Pudong Bank, Societe Generale, China Merchants Bank's rising power also mainly from the buying of institutional funds. The weight shares of the two major plates constitute the main force pushing the market upward.　　It can be foreseen that as the institutional funds are deeply involved, they will still show more investment opportunities in the future market fluctuations. Focus on follow-up capacity and leading varieties I think the "28" conversion can be successful, we need to pay close attention to the market follow-up capacity changes and leading varieties of the continuation of power. From a A-share historical trajectory, the most successful conversion is after May 30, 2007, the market BlueRaising shares took over the theme, oversold shares of the banner, led the stock index washed up 6,000 points, but the current market situation is not the same.　　First of all, GDP has been difficult to appear double-digit rise, although the economy is stable, but the signs of recovery is still not obvious, the weight of the lifting of the release of the stock of substantial circulation, the uncertainty of the performance of the stock, dividend return flat all show that even if the conversion success, the stock index space is Second, from the recent a-share institutional positions, showing successful conversion is more difficult. According to statistics, the average position of the 254 biased open-end funds included in the statistical range at the end of May was 79.32%, down 2.46% from the end of April. Among them, the average position of the stock fund is 84.52%.　　With the volume of the first week of June magnified, the fund's position is now at a very high level, and it shows that the funds available to the old funds in equity funds are already very limited. Market research found that the new fund since the beginning of the year has reached about 106.7 billion yuan, the current market volume amplification, indicating that the new fund to intervene in the busy period of the market is facing the end, and push up the index is mostly the same old fund varieties. At the same time, gem listing rules issued, the IPO will be opened, a large number of lifting stocks and substantial total circulation, etc., have increased the "28" conversion difficulty. Therefore, if the successful conversion, the stock index is expected to expand the rebound space, on the contrary, it may form a medium-term top, resulting in a large range of adjustments.