3,000 points mark the difference in liquidity still plays a key role

The reopening of the IPO seems to have failed to stop the index from further tapping.　　June 22, the Shanghai Composite Index continued last week's trend, in financial stocks and other large-blue chip pull, once climbed 2,900 point integer mark and set a new high of 2,923, afternoon as part of the plate began to recall the final closed at 2,896 points, a slight rise of 0.55%.　　The 3,000 point mark seems to be close at hand.　　Recently, a number of vendors to represent the many sellers research institutions have been announced in the second half of the strategy appeared in a certain degree of disagreement; Accordingly, as the leading market trend of the Fund and other institutions in the recent continuous rise in the index, for the future also began to appear a big disagreement.　　Fund positions under the 28 market last week, the Shanghai Composite Index set a 4.98% per cent gain, a gain of 5.98% per cent in the first week after "51" in nearly two months.　　In fact, since May, the 2007 bull market in the "28" pattern again presented, in the Bank and real estate and other weight shares led by turns, the Shanghai Composite index completed nearly 500 points of gains. There is no denying that institutions, including funds, social security funds and QFII, play a vital role.　　The results of an average position estimate for the recent 12-week Open-end fund sample showed that since the last week of April, the fund's positions began to climb from around 71% to around 75% and remained until last week.　　Although many vendor research institutions have been different in their calculations of fund positions, the vast majority believe that the fund's positions have edged up slightly since the week of June 15-19th, after a slight decrease in the previous week.　　The monitoring report from the Financial engineering and derivatives section of the Citic Securities Research department argues that "the market is continuing to dominate and the trend is coming to an end"; it believes that as of June 19, the average position of 230 open-end funds reached 78.21%, up 3.47% from the previous week. However, the Oriental securities view that, if the market itself to consider the rise of the Fund's position after the impact of the Fund is active to lighten.　　In the view of its analyst Hu Chuoven, the fund's average position for the third consecutive week of decline means that "the fund's differences again show, in combination, the fund in the market's rising atmosphere still choose to reduce the initiative, or to show their caution."　　From the reporter to understand the situation, the Fund's initiative to increase the position last week is not obvious, more options are financial and property stocks, and including Kerry, long letter and the East Wu Fund, including more than 30 funds have opted to take the initiative to lighten.　　The reporter obtains from the big wisdom Super WINS data to confirm this statement--the main fund already three weeks big buys the bank stock, in the first three weeks since June has bought the bank shares to reach 7.48 billion yuan, but last week 5 session "The main fund overall net outflow 5.74 billion yuan".　　The news of the three-gold drug industry in the near future means the IPO is about to restart, but the news is not good or bad in the eyes of the fund company. China Merchants prosperous Growth fund manager Liang Yongjian will IThe PO restart is likened to "the new firewood"-the fire may make the fuel more prosperous, but it may also put out the fire, which stresses the rhythm and skill of the firewood.　　Meanwhile, on June 19, the four ministerial committee announced the relevant policies for the transfer of state-owned shares. Requirements in the stock reform of the new and old after the domestic market IPO contains state-owned shares of listed companies, must be in accordance with the initial issue of the actual shares 10% to be held by the National Social Security Council, this part of the share will be the original ban on the basis of the expected extension for another 3 years. The move was understood by the market as the government's "care" for the stock index.　　Investment Securities analyst Chen Wen that the move is "through the expansion of Social Security Fund scale, in the solution of China's aging peak pension income gap, but also conducive to the Social Security Fund to maintain the stability of the role of the stock market."　　Liquidity remains the key if, in the long run, the main factor determining market trends is the performance and valuation of listed companies, the capital-or liquidity-has been the most critical factor in the recent six-month rally from 1664 to 2,896.　　"Liquidity is still the focus of attention for quite some time thereafter, and it may start to reverse when the government begins to shrink credit," said the investment director of a shanghai-based fund company.　　There is no denying that, in the 5 months since last November, the scale of credit continued to increase substantially while the performance of listed companies did not show a corresponding recovery, but the stock index is out of the unexpected sharp rebound trend.　　Last week, rumors from the market said that new loan data for June could again show more than 1 trillion yuan, but projections from most sellers ' research institutions suggest that June is expected to surpass May, meaning the total number of new loans will exceed 6.5 trillion yuan in the first half of the year. And the recent release of the real economic data, industrial enterprise profits did not occur in anticipation of the growth, but the real estate market indicators to make the real estate sector in the recent two months, one of the main driving force of the index rise; from the perspective of the entire national economy, as a guide to the real estate industry, including　　Engineering machinery and steel cement and other downstream sectors to bring recovery expectations.　　However, there are also concerns expressed by institutions. In its weekly macro strategy, released on 22nd, CICC said that "such rapid growth in lending is unsustainable, while the government will consider the cost of high growth in loans (i.e., rising non-performing assets, fiscal overload, etc.), and on the other hand, loans tend to fall naturally in the quarter." "Historically, there has been a strong correlation between stock market movements and loan growth," with the expected recovery in the first half of the real economy and the growing number of new loans prompting a flood of capital into the stock market, while the reaction to loan growth in the second half of the year could be in a dilemma. The natural decline in loans is worried about the sustainability of the economic recovery in the four quarter and next year, and the continued high growth in lending worries about a shift in government policy. But optimists, like the CNOOC, recognizeFor now, from the "overheated economy", "government shrink credit" time is still relatively distant.　　On the other hand, from the valuation point of view, according to the reporter is not complete statistics, as of the weekend, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock A shares of static earnings ratio of about 28 times times, the city net rate of about 3.2 times times. Guotai strategy analyst Wang that "the current valuation is a medium-risk medium-income", "in view of the full circulation impact, valuation levels have been very cheap, but the upward space still exists." On the whole, there is still no bubble, but the valuation structure is obviously different, some industries are overvalued.　　"It is noteworthy that this year, with the climbed of the stock index, as an important factor affecting the stock index trend of the size of the non-restricted period after the sale of the choice to reduce, in recent months reduce the number of maintenance in the monthly 1 billion shares." But Invesco, the fund manager of the Great Wall, thinks, "due to all the improvement in earnings expectations, the core varieties of the valuation level is relatively not too expensive", "at the same time, because the policy is still relatively loose, more abundant capital supply, market heat rising, kinetic energy, the new fund issue scale is also expanding, so the recent decline in the space is not large, It is expected that the future market will continue to show the pattern of vibration upward. ”