3rd quarter should be kept from attacking more than eight reduction and other large adjustments

Source: Internet
Author: User
Keywords Banking banking
Jiangzongren will do it in the second quarter, with the new quarter starting on Wednesday. In recent days, markets like equities, dollars, gold and oil have all been shocks, and seem to be waiting for new directions in the new quarter.  Overall, the monetary policy of the world will continue to be loose, still more hot money, the key is the 2nd quarter has been a lot of growth, valuation is not low, the banking system in Europe and the United States is still lurking in crisis, the strategy of the early season should wait and see prudence. Past experience, the end of the quarter, is often the decline of old trends, the emergence of new trends.  After the end of last year, the dollar has been strong, oil prices and resource prices have greatly reversed the first half of the trend, this year into the 2nd quarter, the economic "bud" of the popular, Global stock market rally. Step into the 3rd quarter, good profit and light factors have.  The good part is that the global capital is abundant, the interest rate is very low, the U.S. Monetary Fund market is still parked a lot of idle money, waiting for the opportunity to find a better return on investment, China and even Asia's overall economic growth forecasts have been increased by the World Bank and the OECD, the United States economic data are  Is this the shortest bearish market? However, there are a lot of factors that make investors afraid to invest in the whole situation, many people have a question in their hearts: the financial tsunami in a century is really over?  The financial tsunami, which took only about 17-18 months to appear at the bottom, was shorter than the network bubble burst and the 1973 oil crisis, but only half of the time during the 1929 depression. British Central bank: Bank leverage is still high doubt 2 is global banking, especially European banks, seems to still lurk a lot of problems. The Bank of England's latest financial stability report last week reminded us that while the financial assets of the banking sector improved in the 2nd quarter, Market losses were reduced from $24.7 trillion trillion in March to $15 trillion in June, the stock market rally alone has reduced the bank's share loss by 7.9 trillion of billions of dollars, but the global banking balance sheet remains tense, with a high leverage, although it has repeatedly raised funds in the capital markets, but the improvement is still insufficient.  In the event of a financial market turmoil or a downturn in asset quality, the bank's credit capacity will weaken further, jeopardizing the pace of economic recovery. What is more, it may also be difficult for the Government to fund further funding, as financial markets have scruples about the risk of debt-laden government credit, and if the government is to borrow heavily to bail out the banking sector, the sovereign rating will decline, the ability to guarantee bank bonds will be weakened and the cost of raising funds for banks  Using ordinary people's FA, the conclusion of the Bank of England report: The banking sector is still weak and fragile. Japan's deflationary grim central bank has no strategy, though, regulators tend to be siane, must be calculated for the worst, investors should not believe that the problem will inevitably occur, but the view of the control (0005) and the European and American international banking stocks since the beginning of May to May has been in the run-up to the stage, how much reflects the market has some doubts about the bank stocks  , do not want to raise at the current level. Question 3 is the spread of deflation, Japan's MayThe consumer price index (CPI), which has fallen by 1.1%, has historically been the lowest, with the interest rate at zero, and what solutions are there? Recently, it has been reported that the Government and the economic circles are discussing whether to introduce a negative interest rate policy to drive money into the consumption and investment market, which will inevitably cause the Japanese society to stir up and shake the international financial market.  Hong Kong is also likely to reproduce deflation, and Leung, HSBC economic adviser, expects the CPI to fall 1% to 2% in the second half of the year. These points are worth noting. But Asia also has its advantages, is that the banking system is far more robust than in Europe and the United States, the impact of monetary policy is more effective, the mainland since last November, the monthly increase in renminbi loans unusually large, in contrast, the UK's corporate credit balance is almost zero growth, both sides adopt a loose monetary policy, China's banks will lend,  Enterprises also dare to borrow, to have the growth of investment, driving economic growth, the situation in the United Kingdom, not only banks do not want to borrow, enterprises may not too dare to borrow, the economic downturn is inevitable. In general, the 3rd quarter should be kept, in the eight points on the reduction, waiting for a larger adjustment to appear, the Hang Seng index may be in the six to nine points between the fall. Capital is still abundant, the week before the Asian stock market outflow, last week in South Korea and Taiwan stock market also saw a net inflow, good light is still favoured.
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