5 times times PE to win a good "impression" Lijiang tourism into "performing the first share"

The experience of "cheap, not good" is not necessarily true in capital markets. September 30, Lijiang Tourism (002033, closing price of 28.07 Yuan) announced the reorganization plan, intended to be no less than 21.69 yuan/share prices, directed additional purchase impression of tourism 51% equity. To the shock of the market, the asset, despite a 176% per cent surge in net profits last year, is only 5.4 times times more than the purchase price-earnings ratio.　　At the same time, the completion of the acquisition, but also make Lijiang tourism became the domestic "performing first share." What is the impression of tourism to achieve the high growth of its performance?　　How should investors grasp the logic of investment? The first half of the net Super Lijiang tourism 6 times times Jiangtaigong fishing, willing to take the bait.　　But for Lijiang tourism, the impression of tourism This "fish" is not only fresh meat, the price is also very affordable. Data show that the impression of tourism at present main "impression Lijiang" Snow Mountain performance, and impression Sanjie are subordinate to the impression of products.　　As a large-scale real performance, its entire part "the Trail Caravan", "on the Wine Snow Mountain" and so on 6 majority, the investment amounted to 130 million yuan. However, it is such an "alternative" asset, Lijiang tourism to the low price of income in the bag. According to the disclosure, the impression of tourism 51% equity value of 210 million yuan, compared with its book net worth of 282% per cent premium. Still, the purchase price-earnings ratio is only 5.4 times times the price, as measured by CITIC Securities. In this regard, a listed securities researcher believes that, although the impression of the proposed acquisition of tourism equity appreciation nearly 3 times times, but compared to the same year, the 20~30 of the Qing-China Brigade Holdings Wuzhen is still much cheaper than the P/E.　　In addition, the current valuation of tourism resources stocks are generally 30~40 times PE. Under the underestimated value, the performance growth of impression tourism is really astonishing. 2009, its ticket income of 157 million yuan, an increase of 155%, net profit of 75.8476 million yuan, up 176% year-on-year. By contrast, Lijiang's tourism net profit last year was only 38.2703 million yuan, down nearly 17% per cent. In addition, the first half of this year, the impression of tourism 51% equity corresponding net profit of 20.344 million yuan, for the same period of Lijiang tourism more than 3 times times, if the stock by 100%, the former profit is 6 times times the latter! In January-September this year, Lijiang tourism net profit of 14.8 million yuan, down 62% year-on-year. Net profit of this year is expected to drop 90%~100% year-on-year.　　The main reason for the ropeway shutdown will reduce the net profit of 42.5 million yuan this year.　　How do you feel about people who have really seen the impression of Lijiang? Kang Hui Travel Agency, a person to the reporter revealed that under normal circumstances, with a regiment to Lijiang before will recommend to the impression of Lijiang, and the project has been more popular. She and her friends visited the National Day of the year, when the average fare was $190 per ticket. During the peak season, 2 performances are arranged each day, at 9 o'clock in the morning and 11 o'clock respectively. In addition, if the purchase of Yulongxue Shan and impression of Lijiang package, can be more than the original price of 380 yuan has a certain range of discount.　　With the November Ropeway is expected to resume operation, the impression of Lijiang's passenger traffic will also increase. Three major factors contribute to performance growth 2007From 2009 to a short period of 3 years, the impression of tourism ticket revenue soared nearly 10 times times to 157 million yuan, and achieve a strong turnround. Net profit margins rose from the earliest 19.64% to 48.18%.　　In the first half of this year, the company's ticket revenue and net profit were 88.7072 million yuan and 39.8893 million yuan respectively.　　What are the factors underpinning high growth? "Impression tourism in recent years, the performance of the high growth, mainly related to three factors," in the country has 80 branches of a brokerage researcher that, "first of all, Lijiang tourist growth driven impression Lijiang ticket sales growth, followed by effective ticket prices to promote higher ticket income, and finally the expansion of the theater to stimulate attendance. These three factors complement each other and are indispensable. "The reporter observes, 2007, the impression travel ticket sales only 148,700, Lijiang tourist number is 5.31 million people, the ticket sales accounted for the Lijiang visitor proportion to be 3%; 2008, ticket sales increased by 269% to 549,100 per cent year-on-year, the number of Lijiang tourists increased 18% to 6.25 million people. At this time, ticket sales accounted for the tourist ratio has quietly risen to 9%, 2009, ticket sales reached 1.3841 million, an increase of 152%. Lijiang tourist number of 7.58 million people, an increase of 21%. Ticket sales accounted for more than 10% to 18% of visitors. This means that in 2007, only 3 of the 100 people who went to Lijiang to visit Lijiang were likely to see the impression. But it has risen to 18 by last year. In the first half of this year, due to the suspension of technical renovation and the impact of the Expo diversion, the proportion slipped to 17%.　　But according to statistics, from 2007 to 2009, the average growth rate of admission tickets in Lijiang is close to 11 times times the average growth rate of Lijiang tourists. In fact, the increase in ticket sales has benefited from a common rise in the number of performances and a single audience. The data show that during the ~2009 year of 2007, the number of games was raised from the initial 350 to 923. In 2008 and 2009, the number of matches increased 53% and 72% respectively. This means that the average number of times per day has risen from 0.96 to 1.47 and 2.53, and in 2007 ~2009, the number of individual spectators rose from the initial 424.9 to 1499.52, including 2008 and 2009, with a year-on-year increase in the number of viewers 141%, 47% In the first half of this year, the number of field and single audience was 353 and 1915.9 respectively.　　The average number of fields per day was reduced slightly to 1.95 times. In addition, the increase in the number of spectators is related to the change of the audience's total seat and attendance. From 2007 to 2008, the total number of seats in Lijiang was only 1500, but attendance rose from 28.33% to 68.16% in 2009, although the total seats increased by 200 to 1700, the attendance still increased by 20% to 88.21% over the previous year. This April, the impression Lijiang again expands, the performance theater seat from the original 1700Increased to 2,870.　　The first half of attendance dropped to 78.38%. It is worth mentioning that, because of the impression Lijiang needs to return to local travel agents, effective fares are often lower than the actual fare. In addition to ticket sales, effective fares are also an important factor in boosting revenue. The reporter learned that the impression of Lijiang's sales channels, including travel agencies and casual two parts, of which the travel agency team sales accounted for about 95%, only about 5% of the scattered guests. Tickets are divided into 190 yuan/Zhang's ordinary tickets and 260 yuan/Zhang VIP ticket. The Citic Securities report showed that from 2007 to 2009, effective fares rose from $99.79 to $113.74, a cumulative gain of 14%. In the same period, the per capita effective fare ratio increased from 53% to 60%. In the first half of this year, the effective fare per capita increased by 15% to $131.16.　　The per capita effective fare ratio is 69%. The tourist growth will be regarded as one of the best assets of Lijiang tourism, the impression that the future performance of tourism will maintain high growth?　　Where is the biggest bottleneck? A large brokerage tourism researcher told reporters that the impact of the impression of tourism in the future performance of the main factors are three points, that is, lijiang tourists increase, effective fares and ticket sales. As the first half of this year's ticket sales accounted for the number of Lijiang visitors 17%, so the future growth of Lijiang tourists will directly determine the impression of tourism ticket sales and performance. In the absence of natural disasters and other factors, it is expected that in the next few years Lijiang will maintain annual growth of more than 10% visitors. In this way, even if the proportion of ticket sales no longer increases, the annual growth rate of ticket sales can be maintained at more than 10%. It is noteworthy that the Expo diversion is likely to lead to Lijiang tourists this year low growth.　　But with the big Ropeway resuming work in November, it is expected to resume normal growth next year. The researcher then added that, in particular, the number of times and the number of individual audience changes will directly affect ticket sales. Because the performance team is fixed and each performance time is 1 hours, it is expected that the next few years will be difficult to break through the last 923 of this level. Whether or not a single audience increases, it depends on the attendance and the overall number of seats can increase. This April, impression travel increased by more than 1000 seats. The future expansion must be based on the level of attendance at least to close to 90%. Based on the future growth of Lijiang tourists forecast, the material attendance will gradually rebound to 2009 88% level.　　This means that even if the number of seats does not change, the number of individual spectators will increase a certain extent. Interestingly, according to a person in China Everbright travel to reporters, for security reasons, and so on, now with the regiment to Lijiang has been less and more free people travel will show an increasing trend.　　If the impression of Lijiang reception of the casual increase in the trend, does it mean that the effective fare will be increased year by year? In this respect, the researcher said, in theory, the majority of the purchase price of the ticket is positive, that is, the price does not contain the effective fare ratio. But in fact, there is not much room for effective fare increases. First of all, the current impression of Lijiang reception of the scattered passengers accounted for only 5%. Even if the bulk of the future is a major trend, but will not standThat is to change the status quo of the main group, secondly, the increase in effective fares must be based on the assumption that the program is in short supply, that attendance is very high. Because the travel agency competition is very intense now, once the company rises unilaterally, it is likely to lose some of the team customers; Finally, how many people are willing to choose to see the impression Lijiang is also a problem.　　The increase in the number of stray passengers in Lijiang may not necessarily mean that effective fares will rise. According to CITIC Securities forecast, from 2010 to 2012, the impression of tourism ticket income will reach 184 million yuan, 214 million yuan and 243 million yuan, net profit will reach 82.68 million yuan, 89.78 million yuan and 106 million yuan. In the same period, the estimated per capita effective fare rate will rise slightly from 69% to 70%, with attendance rising from 72% to 85%. In addition, the National Gold Securities Forecast 2010 ~2012 years, Lijiang passenger number will increase 15%, 11% and 12% year-on-year.　　Impression travel EPS contribution to 0.33 yuan, 0.38 yuan and 0.45 yuan respectively.　　Unfortunately, the daily economic news has been calling Lijiang many times recently, but the company's telephone has been in a state of no answer. It is worth mentioning that, Moringo, deputy dean of the School of Culture and Media at the Central University of Finance and Economics, pointed out to the daily economic news that the biggest bottleneck of impression tourism is the lack of innovation in its programs and the almost clone Sanjie of its content.　　Long-term growth will be a question mark because it relies heavily on passenger flow and even foreign customers. Guotai in its research paper, the impression of tourism earnings growth is a potential risk. First, the valuation of the asset to be acquired is based on its optimistic earnings outlook, and the impression of tourism income mainly from the local travel agents of the team of cultural performance tickets, and the local natural climate change on the travel agency business passenger flow has a greater impact; second, the impression of tourism industry is a single, growth from the number of tourists and ticket prices of natural growth, If the impression Lijiang performance can not innovate, its long-term attractiveness will also decline, affecting the growth of the company; again, impression tourism exists the possibility of paying income tax 19 million, which accounts for the 20%~25% of net profit this year.