5 years later, the "pollution gate" will be exposed to a factory in CICC

After Zijin mining (601899, closing price of 9.84 Yuan), the A-share market explosion pollution door. The protagonist of the event was yesterday's early emergency suspension of the gold Lingnan (000060, the former closing price of 23.00 yuan). This is the second time since the listing of the south of the Chinese south of the pollution incident, the source of pollution from the company's largest lead and zinc smelting plant-Shaoguan smelter.　　However, Fan Haibo Securities industry analyst, said that the matter has little impact on the company's performance, the plunge instead of buying opportunities.　　Shaoguan smelter leakage of thallium yesterday morning, the emergency suspension of Lingnan, the market speculation, about the largest smelting plant in the golden Lingnan-Shaoguan smelter comprehensive shutdown of the news also spread. Last night, the Gold Lingnan Bulletin said, the company's Shaoguan smelter thallium leakage, leading to the upstream of the North River Thallium phenomenon. According to the request of the provincial government of Guangdong province, the Shaoguan smelter was fully discontinued on October 21, 2010 and is actively cooperating with the relevant government investigation.　　At present, the water quality of the Beijiang main line is basically stable and the influence of thallium exceeding the standard is effectively controlled, and the Government and relevant departments are taking effective measures to ensure the safety of water supply. Fan Haibo told the Daily Economic news reporter, lead-zinc smelting enterprise pollution in 2009 has occurred, because smelting links will produce a large number of sources of pollution, lead and zinc industry is also seen as a heavy pollution industry.　　and Shaoguan smelter in 2005, there have been cadmium emission pollution incidents.　　"Daily economic news," the reporter found that Shaoguan smelter in the December 31, 2005 because of the relevant staff violations of operating procedures, resulting in waste water containing cadmium emissions exceeded, and was fully discontinued, rectification until February 21, 2006 to resume production.　　Interestingly, in the Golden Lingnan 2009 Annual report can be found, Shaoguan smelter was named the National Non-ferrous Smelting Enterprises "beautiful environment Factory", "National Environmental protection Advanced Units" and Shaoguan "Environmental Star Enterprise", but these honors did not prevent the Shaoguan smelter again pollution incident.　　Fan Haibo pointed out that the Asian Games will be held in Guangzhou, Shaoguan smelting plant rehabilitation at least after November.　　The monthly loss of 27 million yuan impact small Shaoguan smelter as the largest smelting company in the south, the total production will bring a large impact on the company's performance. Gold Lingnan Bulletin said that the 2010-year plan to produce 325,300 tons of lead-zinc concentrate metal, smelting products lead and zinc metal production of 420,000 tons (of which Shaoguan smelter 350,000 tons). As of September 30, 2010, the company has produced 232600 tons of lead-zinc concentrate metal, smelting products lead-zinc metal production 312,300 tons (of which Shaoguan smelter 256,200 tons).　　The production of Shaoguan smelter will directly reduce the production of lead and zinc metal and related operating income of smelting products this year. The preliminary estimate of the south of the south of the gold found that the Shaoguan smelter every 1 months of production will directly reduce the company's net profit of about 27 million yuan. This accounted for the first half of the South 300 million yuan net profit9%, if prolonged production will bring the company a lot of damage. However, Fan Haibo does not think so, he told the Daily Economic news reporter, Gold Lingnan lead-zinc mine is not fully self-sufficient, of which 50% is outsourcing, and the first half of 2010, the company's net profit of 300 million yuan, the bulk of the company's profits-the mining sector is not affected by this incident, mainly mining can Companies can store a large number of their own mines, in the future after the use of the recovery.　　Considering the profit margin of lead and zinc smelting at present, the loss of the production of Shaoguan smelter is less than that of the Lingnan. Gold Lingnan also said, will be fully organized production and operation of the work, and strive to reduce the loss of Shaoguan smelting plant production.　　Other operating companies under the normal operation of production units, the company will properly deal with accidents under the premise of the early resumption of Shaoguan smelter production.　　The stock price drops or can take a close look at the Zijin mining July 13 after the pollution door of the stock market trend, a continuous slump of more than 20%; far see the gold in the south of the Shaoguan smelter December 21, 2005 due to the production of the decline of the company's stock price continued to fall, can guess the price of Lingnan after the But a slump may be a chance to suck up, Fan Haibo thinks.　　Because in the long run, the Sino-Lingnan pollution incident is accidental, the company's performance impact is temporary, and the company's mining will continue to resume production is only a matter of time, so the stock price in the short fall correction too big, but will appear a sharp rebound. In 2005, the price of Lingnan, a continuous slump, including a number of funds to add wealth, such as the low buy, after the industry turned good, the stock price will soon rise; Zijin mining is the best example in the near future, after the pollution door by the market, the share price plummeted more than 20%, but then the international gold price continuously rose,　　Zijin mining valuations have been heavily undervalued and the market is in hot pursuit, with shares soaring.　　Gold Lingnan or difficult to reproduce the trend of the late boom, but a continuous plunge or the opportunity to raise.　　Related reports the price of lead and zinc is expected to rise the relevant shares worth concern in the gold Lingnan smelting capacity shutdown, yesterday international lead and zinc prices also reacted fiercely.　　Yesterday evening, LME lead, LME zinc prices have reacted, in other metals in the case of small gains, the above two varieties rose by more than 2%, all set a rebound of new highs. Xinda Securities industry analyst Fan Haibo told the Daily Economic news reporter, the Shaoguan smelter in south of the existing capacity of 350,000 tons, according to 1:2 calculation, the existing production capacity of about 120,000 tons of refined lead, refining zinc 240,000 tons. and October 11, 2010, the international lead and Zinc research Group (IIZSG) estimated that 2010 global demand for refined zinc 12.3 million tons, 2011 global demand of 13.07 million tons; 2010 global supply of refined zinc 12.51 million tons, 2011 global supplies 13.23 million tons　　2010 and 2011 Global Zinc Supply surplus of about 233,000 tons and 161,000 tons. Based on the estimated value of the international lead and Zinc research Group (IIZSG), the production capacity of Lingnan is higher than 2011The global surplus of lead and zinc, if discontinued, will likely change the global supply-and-demand balance between lead and zinc, from excess to shortage.　　2009 China lead pollution incident has caused international lead price to soar, domestic and foreign related stocks have good performance. Fan Haibo that at present, the world is facing excess liquidity, the basic metal is the hot spot of international investment, at this juncture, the smelting production of the gold Lingnan may lead to a similar 2009-year scene. and Fan Haibo proposal to pay attention to Western mining (601168, closing price 18.16 yuan), Henan Light Gold lead (600531, closing price of 31.66 yuan), CHI macro Zinc Germanium (600497, closing price 25.77 yuan), Hongda shares (600331, closing price 17.92 yuan), such as lead and zinc listed companies.