5 years of new energy vehicles "weaning" enterprises can self-reliance?

2014, new energy vehicles ushered in a burst of growth, year-on-year growth of more than 300%. However, in the two months to 2015 years ago, the domestic new energy vehicle market, while still maintaining a relatively rapid growth, but compared to last year's pomp, it appears to be a weak successor. Data show that February new energy vehicle production and sales reached 6190 and 6,045 respectively, but November 2014 and December, the new energy vehicle sales have reached 6,677 and 14,000 vehicles.

In this regard, there is a point of view, the reason for this, on the one hand, due to the February Spring Festival factors, and on the other hand, after years of new energy vehicle subsidies Xianpo (compared with the 2013 reduction of 10%) caused by the "anticipates", the market overdraft.

"No industry can sustain itself over the long term, and if it has not sprung up after such a long period of subsidy, it doesn't work." "National 863" energy-saving and new energy vehicles "major Project supervision Advisory Expert Group Team leader Wang Binggang has publicly expressed to the media.

Under the background of imperfect infrastructure facilities, product performance and cost that have not yet been able to meet consumption expectations, the policy-driven market is the path that all countries in the world are experiencing in promoting new energy vehicles, but the maturity of a market is clearly not dependent on policies and subsidies. Recently, some industry insiders said that, outside the existing Xianpo mechanism, the state may cancel the subsidy to new energy vehicles in 2020. So, in a short span of 5 years, the existing new energy production enterprises can scale up as soon as possible, in order to achieve effective cost-sharing, and ultimately in 2020 to leave the support of the policy to fly alone?

How much will the cost drop in 5 years?

This is a question that may not be answered accurately by all industry members. Although from the bike's view, the high cost of new energy vehicles is more due to its carrying power batteries. Prior to this, the head of a new energy vehicle manufacturer had told the first financial daily reporter that the general hybrid car, battery cost can occupy about 30% of the total cost of the proportion, and pure electric maximum can be accounted for half. In other words, if the cost of the battery is effectively controlled, then the cost of the whole vehicle will be reduced year round. This is why, before this, Japan's new Energy Industry Technology Development Agency (NEDO), and strive to reduce the average cost of lithium batteries in 2015 to 30,000 yen/kwh, 2020 to 20,000 yen/kwh, 2030 to 10,000 yen/kwh.

In China, third party statistics show that from 2010 until now, the price of power batteries have also been reduced, but the whole car prices have not been so large year-on-year decline. This is for the new energy production enterprise leaders told reporters, fundamentally or not the scale of effective cost-sharing. To develop new energy vehicles, in recent years, domestic mainstream production enterprises have invested huge sums of money, to SAIC, for example, in the "Twelve-Five" period, its research and development of new energy vehicles to reach tens of billions, and in the near future, Changan Automobile also said that in the next 10 years to invest 18 billion yuan into the field of new energy vehicles To protect the production and sale of new energy vehicles, both human and equipment costs will increase. At billions of and tens of billions of dollars, it is clear that not thousands of sales can be effectively apportioned.

Therefore, in his view, the cost of new energy vehicles in 5 years will be reduced by how much, depending on the overall size of the market can achieve what level. "Without saying millions, the cost of new energy vehicles could fall to half the current if we were to meet our initial 2015-year target of 500,000 units." This person estimates.

Why is the scale difficult to ascend?

In the promotion of new energy vehicles, the relevant State departments do not work less. With both central and local double subsidies up to $100,000, policies including preferential access, free parking and free licences are being developed and implemented, so why is it hard to increase the size of new energy vehicles?

The imperfections in infrastructure are the most important reasons the industry believes. In addition, however, many other reasons cannot be overlooked. "Prior to this, national policies on new energy vehicles are not as strong as it is now, and mainstream production companies do not have much investment and research and development enthusiasm." "An independent brand of the head of southern Jiangsu (alias) that in his view, for the vast number of joint-venture brands, it has a relatively solid share in the traditional market, from the market level it is difficult to have the power to do the development and investment of new energy vehicles, so the market has been" wait and see "attitude. And the independent brand has been encountering the market cold busy, and policy has been unclear, so also dare not rashly large-scale investment.

"The uncertainty and sustainability of the policy is one of the major reasons for the slow development of new energy vehicles," he said. "said Zhang, a car analyst. Suzhou Jinlong Automobile Wang (alias) had previously told reporters that in the area of bus, the country's new energy support policy has swung, "before the subsidy of traditional hybrids, followed by the elimination of hybrid subsidies and the reduction of plug-in hybrid power subsidies and turn the focus to pure electric", which allows manufacturers to follow suit, Not only difficult to achieve the accumulation of technology, but also caused the waste of resources.

In addition, in the National Union deputy Secretary-General Tri Dongshu, the reason for the long push for new energy vehicles is not widespread because of the country's subsidy policy is biased, "commercial vehicles such as bus and other subsidies are too high, and the relative shortage of passenger cars." He cited an example, before the state for plug-in hybrid bus subsidy once as much as 400,000 yuan, and pure electric bus central and local double subsidy can reach millions of dollars. In his view, millions of subsidies not only effectively offset the increase in the cost of new energy and traditional power, but also "free" for businesses to amortize some of the rest of the costs, so the former part of the business is "lying on the subsidy to sleep." In support of this, the state's subsidy to this category of cars has been reduced to 250,000 yuan, but companies are still able to afford it, and public-sector outreach targets can still be completed. "It's worth thinking, is there too much subsidy in this area that needs no adjustment?" Tri Dongshu that.

In his view, the idea of promoting new energy vehicles from the public domain is correct, but the demand for the whole public sector is not large, and to do large-scale, or should focus on the support of passenger cars, to increase the subsidies for passenger car bicycles.

The hope lies in the pattern breakout?

Simply relying on policy adjustments, in practice, is extremely limited in terms of the rapid increase in size. Therefore, Zhang that the development of new energy vehicles should be broadened, the real market problems to be completely returned to the market, such as whether the country can cancel the "pilot promotion" model, so that all urban consumers have access to new energy vehicles, expand market base; In addition, Low-speed electric vehicles can also be strengthened to monitor and consider its inclusion in the new energy promotion, there are management, many routes at the same time to advance.

In addition, and June Consulting partner Haibin, to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles, in the promotion of ideas should also be innovative, rather than cling to the previous marketing ideas. Indeed, in the eyes of the industry, new energy vehicles are not only the traditional manufacturing field of innovation, but also shoulder the whole reform of the automotive circulation. Under the background of the internet thinking and the rising of the young consumer groups, how to decompose the cost of the new energy vehicles through the sharing mode is also the problem that the whole industry should consider. "A few years ago, when some enterprises in the field of new energy vehicles to carry out time-sharing leasing, the industry is not particularly optimistic, but now, timesharing model has begun to bear fruit, and Hangzhou's implementation of the micro-bus mode is gradually accepted and optimistic." Wang Jiahong, an analyst at the automotive industry, told the first financial daily.

In his view, the current new energy industry is in the barges "brutal growth", in the future, the new energy vehicle market can take the leading position of enterprises, not necessarily in the production and manufacturing lead, but the business model of innovative enterprises. As a result, new energy vehicle manufacturers, including SAIC, Baic, BYD and the rest of the car industry, are making "model" breakthroughs.

In conjunction with the car rental industry giants a car rental business to expand the new energy car leasing, SAIC is also trying to work with schools to carry out the new energy vehicle time-sharing Leasing, and in addition, the joint enterprise for Cross-border Marketing is its current promotion of the important way. Just a few days ago, SAIC Hand Green Holdings Cloud Peak group affiliated Enterprises Shanghai Yun Feng Group Automotive Industry Development Co., Ltd. held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony, reached 2000 SAIC-Rong 550plug-in, including the Model Procurement Agreement. It is understood that this batch of new energy vehicles will be mainly used in the Green Group's real estate company's official vehicles, financing rental vehicles. Through "garage cooperation", SAIC hopes to further enhance its visibility in various sectors, while at the same time, the two sides also in the automotive finance, second-hand car trading and financial services, car rental, car networking and its related internet finance and other areas to reach strategic cooperation intentions. At the same time, SAIC will further upgrade the capacity of new energy vehicles this year, from the previous monthly production of 1000 to 5,000 vehicles, easing market demand.

In addition to the adoption of leasing and other modes of promotion, BAIC also tried to join forces battery manufacturers and private charging facilities, integration and layout of the entire industrial chain, to create systems and comprehensive advantages, and comprehensively promote the new Energy vehicle products market. It is understood that Baic's new energy will challenge 20,000 sales targets this year, and in order to achieve this goal, its nationwide distributor network system is also fast implementation, before long, baic in Shanghai, the second new energy car experience shop in Shanghai, the official opening, to take a free experience of the model to increase contact with consumers and acceptance. According to the plan, the store in the year's new energy vehicle sales will reach 2000 vehicles, and Shanghai region's overall sales target will reach 5,000 vehicles.

BYD, which achieved good results last year, will also launch a variety of models to enrich its product line in addition to further boosting battery capacity this year, in addition to the positive layout of the domestic market, BYD will also join hands with Uber and other car rental companies to expand the overseas market for new energy vehicles.