A A-share market value approaching strong resistance

National Securities Xu Yi Nail Market deep adjustment of the possibility of not less than May 15, all A-shares, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 sub-unit static P/E ratio is 26.46 times times, 22.58 times times. According to the circulation market value, accounting for a share of the total market value of 42.95% has been circulated.　　The author expects that the net profit of the listed companies in 2009 is zero or a slight decline year-on-year, for a full circulation of the stock market, the current share price has exceeded the limit of reasonable valuation, many companies share prices have appeared "bubble". In the first quarter of 2009, although the performance of listed companies rebounded, but the domestic and foreign macroeconomic remains a great uncertainty.　　China's trade outlook remains grim, and in early May, the average nationwide call fell to 4.3% per cent. During the 16 years from 1993 to 2008, the share market rose from January to December, "Three and a half", i.e., 2000, 2006, 2007 and 1996. Among them, December 16, 1996, in order to curb speculation "began to implement price limit", triggering 1258 to 855 points of drastic adjustment, counted half times. In addition, the rally continued from January to April, 3, 1995, 1997 and 1998.　　The subsequent mid-term adjustments occurred in May, May and June, with adjustments of 34.13%, 32.12% and 26.65%. "Three and a half" from the beginning of the year to the end of the rise, to have two basic conditions: first, the listed company's net profit appeared upward inflection point; second, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market hot spots clear, and sustainable. At this stage, no matter whether China's economy has bottomed out, its recovery process inevitably twists and turns, 2009 difficult to emerge from the beginning of the year to the end of the rally. But interestingly, the A-share market before the mid-term adjustment, are accompanied by a relatively rapid IPO issuance, and the current a-share IPO is still at a standstill. At least from this point of view, the current a-share market is not the possibility of a sharp adjustment. According to statistics, in the next one months will be set up 29 securities brokers collection, public offering funds, securities investment class private, a-share market funds face no problems.　　At the same time, the public offering partial-stock funds, brokerage collection of rapid distribution, from a side also reflects the management of the current point of recognition. May 15, a-share market value of 7.759 trillion yuan, has been approaching 7.95 trillion yuan in the market value of strong resistance. 7.95 trillion yuan circulation market value of about 2,690 points, the current point up space is not large, technical adjustment may appear at any time. In addition, London copper futures prices on the global stock market has a leading role, the medium-term rebound in London seems to end at 4929 dollars/ton. If so, once the U.S. and European stock market re-enter the adjustment, the A-share market will have a certain drag.