A perspective of five uncertainties in China's economic recovery

BEIJING, November 9 (Xinhua): A Perspective on the five uncertainties in China's economic recovery reporter Ching, hanbing, China's "Xinhua point of view" journalist, China's new "package plan" to deal with the international financial crisis since last November 5, has received remarkable results, the Chinese economy has recovered steadily, and the economic growth season has increased　　But the road to recovery is not smooth, China's economic development still has some problems and difficulties, the foundation of economic recovery is not stable, not consolidated, unbalanced. What uncertainties are facing China's economic recovery?　　On the first anniversary of the implementation of the package, authorities analyzed it. The risk of W-type double dip recession in the world economy under the action of economic rescue and economic stimulus policy, there are some signs of warming up in the world's major developed countries.　　However, the finance minister, Xuren, said that the current global economic recovery is still facing many uncertainties, countries should continue to maintain macroeconomic policy continuity and stability, timely and effective measures to deal with and prevent the potential risks including inflation, and to oppose all forms of protectionism. The foundation of the World economic recovery is not stable, which is very unfavorable to the external environment of our country's economic development. A total of 115 banks collapsed in the United States this year, October 30, when the US financial regulator announced the closure of 9 banks, a record of the biggest bank failures since the onset of the financial crisis.　　However, just one day, the 101-year-old U.S. SME business Lending Agency ――CIT Group November 1 filed for bankruptcy protection application, this is the fifth largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. "The collapse of this round of financial institutions is an ominous sign that the financial system is still not recovering." "I'm not too optimistic about the prospects for a recovery in the world economy," said Qianliwei, an associate researcher at the Institute of Contemporary International Relations in China, who still cannot rule out the possibility of two dip. "Zuo, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, argues that the principal and institutional causes of the crisis have not been completely resolved, and that the negative factors such as high unemployment in major economies, increased inflation expectations and runaway public finances cannot be alleviated in the short term." Unemployment in the United States reached 9.8% per cent in September, the highest in 26 years; some countries have started to raise interest rates, the dollar continues to depreciate and inflation expectations are worsening; there are huge deficits all over the world. "If these problems are not well resolved, the world economy will inevitably be two of a dip." "There is uncertainty about the price trend of the next year. Since last year, our country adopts" moderately loose "monetary policy, which plays a vital role in" keeping growth ".　　As the economy picks up, expectations of market inflation are heating up, raising concerns about rising prices next year. Statistics show that China's consumer prices (CPI) July chain from the decline to flat, August, September Rose 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.　　Ex-factory price of manufactured goods (PPI) rose 0.6% in September, and has risen for 6 consecutive months. National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Li said there is no inflation problem, but there areInflation expectations, "pay high attention to inflation expectations." "In fact, the world now faces the problem of rising inflation expectations," Qianliwei said. The price of global equities, gold, oil and commodities has rebounded strongly in the last six months.　　International oil prices also rose from the lowest point of more than 30 dollars to about 80 dollars.　　"2010 Macroeconomic and Policy Trends analysis", issued by the Strategic Development Department of Bank of China's macro-economic research group, said that the possibility of moderate inflation in China next year would be cautious. The group believes that there are four main factors affecting the price trend in China: first, the economic recovery, the total demand is booming; the second is the global and domestic liquidity is abundant, the price rise exists the monetary basis; third, the reform of the public utilities, water, electricity, gas and other measures for price adjustment, four is the meat, poultry, eggs, etc. as the representative of the prices of agricultural "Under these factors, the CPI is expected to remain within 3% in the first half of next year, but it is likely to break through 3% in the two quarter and grow at 3%-4% a year." "The uncertain factors of foreign trade exports as one of the" troika "driving economic growth, China's export situation has been positive changes, the decline in foreign trade can be further reduced.　　But China's foreign trade development in the uncertain factors are still more, external need to recover slowly, trade protection friction constantly. According to statistics, the first three-quarter total imports and exports 1.5578 trillion U.S. dollars, down 20.9%.　　Which exports 846.6 billion of dollars, down 21.3%. "At present, China's import and export year-on-year negative growth is a trend, is expected to November and December exports year-on-year growth may achieve positive growth." Jianfang, chief macroeconomic analyst at Citic Securities, said: "But now the external demand for international markets is not strong enough, which is the biggest problem facing our country's exports." "In addition to the slow recovery of external demand, trade protection also adversely affects our export situation."　　The Ministry of Commerce October 30 issued the "China Foreign Trade Situation Report" pointed out that, looking forward to 2010, under domestic pressure, the major economies will continue to introduce trade restrictions and protection measures, protectionism will increase. A total of 19 countries and regions launched 88 trade relief surveys on Chinese products in the first three quarters of this year, involving about $10.2 billion trillion, said Yang Yi, director of the Department of Industry Damage investigation.　　In January-August this year, G20 members of China launched a total of 73 trade relief surveys, an increase of 27%.　　Jian Fang said that these trade relief investigations, although the amount of money involved is small, but to the export environment caused by interference, may trigger the "follow" in other areas, the expected impact on our exporters. Whether private investment can follow up is very uncertain the relevant personage analysis, with the central and local large-scale investment plan completes, our country fixed asset investment growth rate will appear to fall.　　Whether private investment, which is weakened by government investment, can be followed up in time, becomes an uncertain factor of our country's economic development. Since the second half of last year, in the external demand has been severely shrinking, enterprise investment confidence and investment ItalyWilling to generally depressed circumstances, China launched the expansion of domestic demand to promote economic growth of the 10 measures, large-scale increase in central investment, the introduction of a 4 trillion yuan investment plan, which has become China's response to the international financial crisis, to make up for the lack of effective demand is the most direct, most powerful and effective means.　　Laid-off, director of the Economic Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the Chinese economy has always been a problem of over-reliance on investment, and now the proportion of society investment is still relatively low, to consider the sustainability of development, should take measures to stimulate the vitality of private investment.　　Statistics show that in the first three quarters of this year, China's non-state investment growth rate of 27.7%, compared to the social fixed asset investment growth of 5.7%, than the state-owned enterprises lagged behind 20.3%, private investment will not be enough. "It is vital to maintain the sustainability and stability of investment-driven economic growth." Zuo said: "China's investment structure should be considered to stimulate private investment, otherwise China's economic growth will encounter bottlenecks." "Jianfang that to stimulate private investment, the need to relax the access restrictions of private capital, to break the monopoly of industry, to allow and encourage private capital to enter the infrastructure, utilities, financial services and social undertakings, such as monopolistic, public welfare areas."　　At the same time, we should improve the financing environment of SME development and individual entrepreneurship, and increase the financing and credit support of private enterprises. Excess capacity "swelling" has uncertainty October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission and other ten departments to jointly release some industries to curb overcapacity and repeat construction, guide the healthy development of the industry policy information, steel, cement, flat glass, coal chemical industry, polysilicon and wind power equipment, such as the six major overcapacity industry has become the focus of future regulation.　　Prior to this, the State Council executive meeting has studied this issue, requiring that "in the growth of insurance to pay more attention to the promotion of structural adjustment, resolutely curb the overcapacity in some industries and repeat construction." Analysis of the relevant persons,　　At present, the national steel production capacity has reached 660 million tons, at the same time there are 58 million tons of construction projects, add up capacity of more than 700 million tons, has been very obvious excess; the national wind turbine manufacturing enterprises have more than 80, there are many enterprises ready to enter, next year wind power equipment capacity will exceed 20 Million-kilowatt, and the annual installed size of about 10 Million-kilowatt.　　For these industries, the state authorities have decided in principle no longer approve its expansion of capacity projects, while the relevant industries will further improve the energy consumption, environmental protection, resource utilization and other aspects of access threshold. According to the analysis, the six large overcapacity industry can smooth "swelling", it is related to China's industrial restructuring and upgrading and completion of energy-saving emission reduction task, but there is uncertainty. At present, all countries in the world are adjusting their economic structure to prepare for the economic development in the post-crisis era. If we remain in the original economic structure and development model, will be in the future of international competition in a disadvantageous position.