A traditional model of buying and selling that relies on American consumerism

If a drone can travel 60 kilometers to San Francisco, it will have to fly 120 miles an hour to complete the promised 30-minute delivery time, which is not the time to fill in the warehouse order. Compared to the trucks that hold 120 combined parcels, 120 unmanned aircraft fly to San Francisco at 120 miles an hour, looking too inefficient. And don't forget, they have to come back with the little plastic cassette that's loaded.

Amazon is currently experimenting with the use of unmanned aerial vehicles to deliver goods, Amazon CEO Bezos said in a 60 minute show on December 1. The news is a source of intense concern, which many see as a revolutionary breakthrough. But Marcus Wolsen, author of Wired magazine, wrote that the use of unmanned aerial vehicles in the past few years is unlikely to become a reality, because the cost is too high, there is no corresponding logistics model and matching, but also not enough to dispel people's security concerns.

The following is the compilation of Marcus Wolsen articles by the Chinese entrepreneur Network:

In fact, no one needs to be shipped by drones today to buy discounted goods on Amazon, and in recent years such deliveries will not happen. This is not just because the technology does not work, nor does federal regulations prohibit such aircraft from flying in densely populated areas, but because the way drones are delivered is not economically meaningful to Amazon. Unless Amazon changes its operations completely, it will never make sense.

Before the drone, Amazon had a business that was delivered on that day, called Amazon Fresh. It took five years to make the plan and put it into practice, and its content was just to bring food and other items--with ordinary vintage trucks.

Bezos told presenter Charlie, 60 Minutes, that the company spent so much time expanding the program because it racked its brains for "How to make distribution more cost-effective."

There is no doubt that the use of unmanned aerial vehicles on the day to deliver goods is certainly more expensive than old-fashioned trucks. In the face of the excited Charlie, Bezos seemed calmer, he admits, "it's very expensive." ”

To make the drone delivery a reality, Amazon needs a new logistics model.

Amazon, like all other large retailers, relies heavily on the "hub-and-spoke" distribution pattern: a large central warehouse as a hub, and orders gush out in different directions like spokes. A typical Amazon order will be sorted from a distribution center--a hub--to a union Parcel Service center or FedEx, where they are divided into different trucks for local delivery.

On the other hand, a point-to-point model is needed for delivery on the same day. In the radiological model, some additional steps and contact Day shippers take up too much time. and goods from the source must be directly to their customers, which makes the distribution distance regardless of proximity, its delivery has become inefficient.

In San Francisco, for example, the nearest Amazon distribution center is about 60 miles east. Compared to a truck that delivers an average of 120 combined packages, a truck with a single order is significantly more expensive. By relying on mixed point-to-point mode, Amazon Fresh reduces this cost: some groceries come from local stores, and Amazon reduces this by 299 dollars a year.

In Marcas Wolsen's view, an unmanned drone that carries a single order is essentially the same as a truck that only delivers a single order. It is not necessarily more fuel-efficient than a large truck carrying 120 packages, and other costs will increase rapidly.

Bezos himself said the drones could cover about 10 miles. He claims that most of the urban population will be in the area of coverage. But most of the Amazon's warehouses are built in suburbs, where shipments can be quicker, cheaper, and less expensive to store. In built-up urban areas, the construction of unmanned aerial Vehicle distribution Center for unmanned aircraft delivery, will require a huge cost, this and Amazon's current operating strategy is contrary.

Even if Amazon expands the scope of drone coverage, the marketing proposition behind it still doesn't make much sense. For example, if an unmanned aerial vehicle could travel 60 kilometers to San Francisco, it would have to fly 120 miles an hour to complete the promised 30-minute delivery time, which would not be counted as the time to fill out an order at the warehouse. Compared to the trucks that hold 120 combined parcels, 120 unmanned aircraft fly to San Francisco at 120 miles an hour, looking too inefficient. And don't forget, they have to come back with the little plastic cassette that's loaded.

For retailers, another cost that needs to be counted is those that have been messed up. The time spent on the drone's return or on a customer service phone can cause money losses for retailers. Because they are outside the basic order and shipping business. Although the map has become finer than ever, Amazon must design some very precise software to guide its drones to avoid screwing up an order.

I do believe that Amazon can teach a drone to put my parcel in my yard instead of leaving it outside. But the drivers of the union parcel Service also knew that. The more areas that receive delivery, the more problems there will be, unless Amazon can work out a way to get the drone to fly directly to the doorman's desk.

The delivery of drones may also pose a security problem, and a child who is hit by an Amazon drone could shrink Bezos's wealth. In such a fiercely competitive field, will people be deterred by the charm of drones?

There is no doubt that Amazon is aware of all the problems. If a company can find a solution, it must be Amazon. In fact, the company already owns the drone Corps. In 2012, Amazon bought the Kiva system for 775 million dollars. Kiva allows unmanned aircraft in warehouses to be transferred to the ground. Theoretically, they are more efficient than the way their competitors are.

But, as the 60 Minutes show, the bigger problem is that most Amazon warehouses are still manipulated by old-fashioned people.

I am not a person who fears new technology. I like the idea that the idea of making the truck on the road to a zero-emission drone. It also saves me time. Otherwise, I would spend a lot of time driving to the store or waiting for the delivery of online orders. Besides, it's cool. Sam Liesin, a Facebook product director, predicts that the network of drones in the air and on the ground will begin to erode consumers ' cash economy because it makes it more appealing to get orders than the order itself.

"Drones and self-driving are key to sharing the economy because people don't have to have anything," Liesin wrote on Facebook, "when they're needed, they can do things directly when they're done." They can return immediately. ”

But Amazon is the antithesis of a shared economy. It is a highly concentrated whole that relies on the traditional buying and selling model of American consumerism. At least today, drones are not enough to prop up Amazon's future.