ABC to unveil a A-share market trend puzzle

Today, the Agricultural Bank (601288), which is responsible for the historical task of the state-owned commercial bank's share reform, will be on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.　　In the recent trend of the market is not good, more than the first day of the IPO is a break in the bad luck, the Agricultural Bank can achieve the "not to make it" commitment and lead the stock market out of bear market dilemma, become the focus of attention.　　According to a notice released yesterday by ABC, the 10.31 billion shares that the bank's initial public offering will be issued on the Internet have been traded today. In the first half of this year, a share market overall decline more than 26%, the second half of the rebound probability of more and more the pattern, AgBank by some analysts gave the "bear market Terminator" and "Capital market stabilizer" image.　　Kangchongli, an analyst at the Great Wall Securities, said the short-term market under pressure under the form of support, the Agricultural Bank will be listed as a turning point, is expected in the first half of the macroeconomic data is still optimistic background, the Agricultural Bank to form a flap the opportunity to increase the weight. However, there are also market participants believe that the IPO is highly likely to drag down the market.　　Shandong God Light Analyst pointed out that the opening of the first day of Agricultural Bank of the market for the medium-term selection direction is more important, assuming the opening of Agricultural Bank in more than 3.50 yuan, the Agricultural bank opened low, led the market below 2,400 points, two times the possibility of a large dip. It is noteworthy that, because today is the Agricultural Bank of China, this day is the date of the economic data and export tax rebate cancellation.　　From tomorrow, the stock index futures IF1007 contract delivery is close at hand, the superposition effect of many factors for today's market and Agricultural Bank trend more add variables. In 15 of the reporter's statistics, CITIC investment in the reasonable price range of Agricultural Bank of China gave 3.89 yuan/share of the ceiling, the capital securities gave 2.45 yuan/share price limit. The average price given by the 15 brokerages is about 2.93 yuan/share, in order to calculate the first day of AgBank's rise should be 9%.　　After the listing of the three major lines, the construction bank on the first day of the IPO rose 33%, the Bank of China is 23%, ICBC is only 5%. In contrast to the generally optimistic view of the organization, retail investors seem to have no cold on the "super carrier". In a poll of a large portal, more than 40% per cent of participants said AgBank would suffer a break.　　In this respect, Agricultural Bank Dong Li Zhenjiang told reporters, "ABC is showing the trend of accelerated growth, the first quarter of this year, net profit of 24.979 billion yuan, an increase of 38.5% per cent." Other analysts believe that AgBank's IPO is expected to be a boost for banks with low valuations. According to the Shanghai stock index, the IPO will be counted into the Shanghai index on the 11th trading day, which will increase the market weight of the bank plate to some extent, and push the bank shares to embark on the value return process.