Academy of Social Sciences: expected next year national property market Spring warm Autumn

This morning, the "housing Green Paper" and the 2009-2010 housing situation and policy seminar, jointly sponsored by the Institute of Financial and Trade Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the social science Literature Press, were held in Beijing,　　The meeting released the first housing Green Paper by the Research Institute of Urban and Real estate economics of the Chinese Academy of Finance and Trade of Cass: China Housing Development Report (2009-2010). Next year the housing market before the high and low volatility growth "housing green book" pointed out that 2009 the fourth quarter to 2010, the fourth quarter housing growth market and housing stock market will show the spring warm autumn, increase the price stability of the development trend. In the fourth quarter of 2009, the housing market may have a decline in sales and a small price adjustment process, investment development will continue to keep up.　　Specifically, sales are likely to slow down in the first quarter of next year, the prices are basically stable; in the second quarter, with inflation expectations or the government's possible new policy, sales rebound, price increases and development investments are more likely to rise; third to fourth-quarter prices and sales may stabilize or fall, and development investment will rise or remain stable Housing financial market mortgage or will fine-tune the "Housing Green Book" forecast, the future of the decision-making level of the Bank loan strategy will be "tight outside the loose." To prevent a rapid rise in real estate prices and even bubbles, credit rates in the housing sector are likely to be fine-tuned.　　First, the interest rate on housing development loans, on the basis of the general commercial loan interest rate of financial institutions, has been adjusted to varying degrees, especially for the development of luxury housing will increase the rate of increase; second, the strict implementation of the banking regulator established by the various mortgage interest rate requirements. Land value Shanghai Beijing-Hangzhou potential in the top three "housing Green book" selected 35 large and medium-sized cities nationwide to study the land value potential, according to the index system and the weight of indicators, to calculate the value of land after 5 years of potential.　　Among them, the top ten are: Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Ningbo, Qingdao, Dalian, Xiamen. There are five major problems in housing security The Green Paper on housing pointed out that the construction of 2008 and 2009 has increased the level of affordable housing, but in the face of general income families, low-income families, low-income families, the housing security system is not meticulous, supporting policies and measures are not in place. At present, the housing market system in China still has the following five major problems: first, the Construction of Provident Fund system has not been perfected, the scope of protection is small and the degree of protection deviation is large. Second, the housing system supervision and exit mechanism is imperfect. Third, the low-rent housing system construction is slow, the protection scope is small, the fund gap is big. The form of housing security is single and does not match the distribution of per capita income. The lack of census data and the lack of long-term planning of housing security.