Across the trillion-dollar mark, where does E-commerce go?

Newspaper reporter Zhing Mahai

November 30 9:50 P.M., time and figures fixed at this moment, Taobao, the cat's turnover exceeded 1 trillion yuan. At this point, one months from the end of 2012.

According to Statistics of National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the provinces in 2011 amounted to 18.39 trillion yuan, and 1 trillion to 5.4% of this data. In the 1999, e-commerce was sprouting in China. But 13 years ago, people must not imagine, one day, China's e-commerce transactions in less than a year time, the breakthrough of 1 trillion yuan, because the whole of China's online shopping market in 1999 only a small amount of 400 million yuan.

13 years ago, someone had a "network survival" game, the result most participants can only buy instant noodles online to fill the belly, 13 years later, online shopping has not only solved the survival problem, there are many unexpected surprises waiting for buyers to explore. Optimists believe that China's e-commerce across the million-dollar mark, from the order of magnitude of 10 trillion yuan will not be far away, can not be avoided is that E-commerce is suffering from "growing pains." Where will China's e-commerce go in the future?

"Virtual economy" has been rewritten

As a domestic e-commerce "crab eating", Alibaba Group in the disclosure of the latest results of 1 trillion, but also stressed that E-commerce as the representative of the new business model is to exceed the speed of imagination, accelerate the upgrading of traditional business models and changes. This background is that China's E-commerce "big Frame" has been set.

Compared with 13 years ago, China's e-commerce environment has changed dramatically. Used to be regarded as "three mountains," the credit, payment, logistics problems, with Taobao as the representative of the online credit system, to pay Bao as the representative of the online payment system, as well as the formation of socialized large logistics system to be resolved. The future of E-commerce is no longer a "virtual economy", but a real new economy (310358, fund bar).

Jack Ma, chairman of Alibaba Group's board of Directors, explained that E-commerce is a real new economy because it is a novel economic model that is perfectly integrated by Internet information technology and traditional real economy. On the one hand, tens of millions of network operators, and every consumer under the Internet environment, are the first "immigrants" in the new economic era, which will guide the transformation of China's economy and rewrite the business model from two aspects of supply and consumption.

On the other hand, online payments have become an emerging industry from the original means of trading. In the beginning of E-commerce, less than 1% of the customers with a limited number of consumer websites chose to pay online. But offline payment methods are also difficult to solve the mutual trust between buyers and sellers, because the buyer is worried that the money will not be received, the seller worried that after the shipment will not receive money. From October 2003, Alipay was established as a department of Taobao, launched the "Secured transaction" model which has now become the mainstream model of third party payment, and eventually turned online payment into an emerging industry. In 2011, the People's Bank of China issued Third-party electronic payment licences to 101 companies, and the entire payment transaction exceeded the 2 trillion-yuan mark, with a five-year growth rate approaching more than 100%, far exceeding the growth of other business models.

In addition, the modern logistics system has also become a huge industry. 2007 ago, Shen Tong Express less than 100,000 per day, by the beginning of 2009, Shentong only Taobao on a daily basis can receive 600,000 single express business; to 2011, Taobao and Taobao Mall (cat predecessor) day parcels more than 8 million, accounting for the Chinese Express industry 60%. As of 2011, China's express business outlets reached 64,000, the number of practitioners more than 700,000 people, the courier market ranked third in the world, reached more than 70 billion yuan.

Third party services in the ascendant

For China's e-commerce across the threshold of 1 trillion yuan, the third party service for online shopping is in the ascendant. However, in the face of the order of magnitude of 10 trillion yuan in the future, the types and levels of third-party services need to be improved.

In recent years, with the extensive application and penetration of e-commerce in the social and economic life, the traditional business of finance, IT, data, consulting and other services industry has gradually come to the Internet, they and e-commerce applications to promote each other, mutual development. Specifically, the traditional enterprise "net" is not smooth sailing, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, often trapped in their own funds and professional personnel constraints. Third-party services in E-commerce can solve these problems. However, it is necessary to note that the current Third-party service providers of E-commerce in the "net" SME services, there is still a single service category, the high threshold of service.

It is noteworthy that with the implementation of the open strategy of Taobao, Cat and other electric platform, the third party service has also appeared the transition trend, and the third party service is becoming the new market and new competition field in the field of electronic commerce. For example, in addition to Taobao, Cat, Suning and other emerging electric dealers have transformed into an open platform to attract more merchants to stay. Gome, which owns both the company's online mall and the Bowser network, announced on December 3 that it would integrate the functions of the Third-party service providers on the online platform and formally renamed Gome Online. Gome Online CEO Handepeng said that the integration of Gome online will be divided into two business units, of which gome online positioning for the business of the Trans-category comprehensive electrical Merchants shopping site, Independent brand operation of the Bowser network is mainly responsible for platform operations, expansion and prosperity of the integrated category online market. He stressed: "We are not only as a product sales channels, but through integration to promote the evolution of a real capture of user needs, interaction with users of a large community platform." ”

Industry Analysis, these open platform for Third-party services to provide a suitable foothold, will further release the traditional enterprises to carry out the demand for business. On the one hand, the Third-party service providers can greatly improve the speed of e-commerce operation development and maintenance, so that the development of e-commerce for small and medium-sized enterprises to bring a rare opportunity for development. Third-party services, on the other hand, can create value and contribute to China's e-commerce. According to Iris consultation, by 2014, only the third party market size will reach 268.4 billion yuan, while the entire E-commerce services will account for about 5% of E-commerce turnover.

Future development cannot rely on "burning money"

Boston Consulting Group has previously judged that China's online retail turnover will increase to 360 billion U.S. dollars in 2015, but from Taobao and the size of the cat, this estimate is somewhat conservative.

"Structural shifts in Chinese consumption will change China's economic growth model and global consumer outlook, and we expect China to overtake the US as the world's largest consumer market by 2020," Credit Suisse said. "There are indications that E-commerce has given SMEs a complete set of online retail solutions to help them develop domestic market with the lowest cost and maximum efficiency." At the same time, e-commerce has also helped traditional industries move from simple transformation to upgrading, including manufacturing, branding and trade flows. Some of the dozens of-year work of SMEs, not only in a few years through the network of retail to create their own brand, but also with the international brand of the same Taiwan competition, become a popular online shopping.

However, although beautiful figures can attract more manufacturing enterprises "net" and more traditional business enterprise transformation, but how to change e-commerce in the initial stage by "burning money" mode of development, still need to think. Where the founder, CEO aged frankly, is the Internet achievements where the goods, so that a young Chinese brand with a strong international competition. At present, where the customer has 20 million users, the average consumption of 4 to 5 times a year, the first-tier city consumption accounted for 60%, customer single average price of 150 yuan to 200 yuan; product sales have surpassed from Japan's well-known fast fashion brand Uniqlo. In his view, where the success of customers to benefit from E-commerce, but also inseparable from the efforts of the enterprise itself: seemingly single but in fact, professional product line, always the pursuit of cost-effective, so that a lot of people's consumption concept to change, clothing this durable goods into a fast, so as to promote long-term development of enterprises.

Aging pointed out that the development of electric business is not enough to rely solely on investment, we must rely on the healthy development of enterprises. Therefore, the customer is now more concerned about the first three quarters after the adjustment of the fourth-quarter sales, as well as the second quarter of next year. At present, where the first three quarters of customer sales growth of nearly 30%, the fourth quarter is the peak season, the entire site's profit target is approaching: "Only to burn money, do not make money e-commerce is no way out." Qiping, Secretary general of the China Academy of Social Sciences Information Research Center, said the future of E-commerce should be the electricity business to create demand. The success of online shopping carnival reflects the power of the electric business in stimulating domestic demand and creating domestic demand. In the future, e-commerce needs to learn how to activate market demand, provide more products for the market, and realize the benign interaction between the net purchase and economic development.