Agency forecasts May CPI drop 1.4%ppi down 7.2%

May Economic Forecast: Investment ferocious industrial recovery the macro-economy is coming out of the crisis at an unexpected rate. Although the National Bureau of Statistics did not release the final data, some research institutions are looking forward to May year-on-year growth in industrial value may reach 8.9%, fixed asset investment year-on-year growth to 32.9%, social consumer goods retail growth will be more than 15%, and consumer price index (CPI) Year-on-year growth will be to 1.4%　　, but the factory-manufactured price index (PPI) is still relatively large, probably around 7.2%, while new loans will exceed previous forecasts, to 664.5 billion, while M1 up 18.69% per cent year-on-year.　　Real estate business investment ferocious if fixed asset investment rose 32.9% Year-on-year, slightly above 30.5% of the previous four months. In the first five months, the growth in fixed asset investment benefited from the increase in government infrastructure projects.　　Therefore, whether this growth is sustainable, the industry does not have a unified view. June 5, in the "2009 China Trust Summit Forum", the Development Research Center of the State Council under the Deputy Secretary-General, macro-economic research researcher Zhang Liqun in the speech made clear that the second quarter of the economic growth rate will be significantly higher than the first quarter, the important reason is that the investment pull effect will increase significantly. Now, infrastructure investment, upfront investment is mainly land development. Land development, investment volume, the formation of investment growth is more obvious, but the formation of fewer orders, the production of the pulling effect is limited.　　However, after the completion of land development, with the acceleration of construction activities, various orders will be significantly accelerated growth, investment in the entire industry and other industries, will be clearly shown. Guotai analyst Wang said: "Last year the central government proposed 4 trillion stimulus plan, local government matching, there is said to be 18 trillion plan." One problem at the moment is that the plan is difficult to complete. Local governments have had little surpluses over the years, and last year their incomes slipped and many of their investments failed to start. "Wang said, May 25, the State Council to reduce the capital ratio of fixed assets investment projects, reflecting a status quo: many investment in fixed assets investment projects lack of start-up funds, even if the loans from the bank, follow-up funds difficult to implement.　　This brings uncertainty to economic growth in the second half of the year.　　However, the real estate industry, in Merrill Lynch Asia-Pacific economist Lu View, real estate will become the financial crisis, the new growth point of the economy. "In May, there was no doubt that real estate manufacturers were overweight. "June 9, just returned to Hong Kong from the mainland Lu clearly told reporters:" From my survey, many huxing good houses have been sold almost, the market on a small supply. Next, in some places, the supply of new homes will be broken. For real estate developers, the most important and immediate thing is that the former shutdown of the resumption of work, the pace of construction, the new project started. "May, the real estate transaction recovery trend is obvious, real estate enterprises to seize the signs of the recurrence." May, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other cities,New house sold on the chain volume price rise. The average price of Beijing and Chengdu is also on the rise.　　In some cities, the average price rises by 10%. May 21, the real Estate (2777.HK) to 1.022 billion yuan high price will be Beijing's wide canal outside the 10th of the income sac, as Beijing to implement land recruitment system, the transaction price of the most expensive land.　　June 7, Vanke (000002.SZ) announced that May spent 2.3 billion, even take 6 land, are located in the second-tier cities. Lu expects the real estate industry to grow more than 10% in May. Last July, due to the Olympic factors and the financial crisis, real estate investment growth has fallen sharply, this July, the real estate industry will have a significant base effect, investment growth will rise sharply.　　From now until the end of this year, the real estate pull will be very obvious. Industrial excess expectations have been revived and some institutions have previously predicted a low growth in industrial value, almost no more than 8%.　　The industrial value added is precisely the focus of this series of macro data. Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Research, said: "The CPI decline is in line with our forecast, with PPI falling at 7.2 per cent, more than we expected, the recent rise in the price of mass goods, which we thought would be narrower than last month." The price situation is not particularly bad and deflation is not as serious as everyone expected. The focus is on the value added to the industry. If industrial growth returns quickly, the two-quarter economy will grow more than expected.　　Lu also said that if the industry added value of 8.9%, taking into account the base effect of the three or four quarter last year, according to the current momentum, this year's economic growth guaranteed eight, the problem is not big.　　Tang Jianwei and Lu all said that May compared with the same period last year, less than two working days, which contributed to the rise in consumption, but according to past experience, the value of industrial growth will have a negative impact. As a result, Lu's forecast of industrial value added was 7.1%, a bit lower than in April. He also mentioned another possibility: "But last year there was an earthquake, it was not so good to assess." It is also possible for the NBS to count the adjustment of the working day. After removing this factor, it was 8.9%. If so, the data is very close to the market forecast. "In addition, the May output was down 3.5% year-on-year, which is one of the reasons why people in the industry have doubts about this data." A macro analyst told reporters: "Last month, electricity output fell 4.3% per cent, while industry added a value of 7.3%, when some questioned the contradictions between the two figures." Historically, the correlation between power generation and industrial value added is high. May was two working days less than last year, the decline in electricity output narrowed by only 0.8%, and 8.9% per cent higher than last month's industrial increase of 1.6% per cent. "This year, companies have been doing a better job of inventory," said the macro analyst. But the industrial value added should be counted according to the production method. Companies selling inventories do not raise the value of industrial growth. "The M1 rose 18.69%, up from April year-on-year growth of 17.48%。 Lianping said the two-quarter rebound was decided, because industrial growth reached 8.9% such a high level, two quarters of GDP will be higher than the first quarter of 1%, to more than 7%, it is likely to be more than 7.5%, or higher. In this case, as the economic recovery is clear, there is a certain price rising expectations, the economy is favorable, after all, the immediate negative growth.　　I think it is advantageous in the short run to maintain the economic recovery and maintain a high economic growth rate. (This newspaper reporter Hu Yunwei, Liu Xiaodong also contributed to this article)