American consumption habits push China's economic restructuring

If America really abandons its excessive preference for "financial wizardry" and adjusts its economic policy focus to focus on the real industry and export orientation, the first test is the current "American consumption-Chinese production" model.　　Yesterday, the data from the Customs administration showed that the United States in the final destination of our exports this year (the ground) is still in the first place, and our foreign trade dependence of up to 70%, which means to us? "Old America" doesn't work. The popular "Old America" story a few years ago used to boast about the benefits Americans used to consume ahead of time, but after the baptism of the financial crisis, American consumers seem to be starting to review the consumption patterns that represent the American way of life to some extent.　　When discussing the source of the financial crisis, many experts blunt, the root cause of the financial crisis is the excessive consumption of American consumers.　　Ms. Gu, who has been studying in a university in Wisconsin for two years, has described her experience of the past year to reporters, and her biggest feelings about the spending habits of American students are ——— they become "stingy". Ms. Gu told reporters that when she first arrived in the United States two years ago, she noticed that the students around her were very accustomed to credit card consumption, and a person with several credit cards was very common. "Many American students are not used to bringing cash, and most of the spending is using credit cards," he said. "The habit of pinching and scraping with international students is different," Ms. Gu said, "The U.S. university student economy is relatively independent," they dare to spend money, and through independent support of their own economic spending shows personal achievements. "And because of this, American college students are particularly sensitive to the financial crisis," when many friends in the country do not know what the financial crisis is, American students are already starting to find ways to cope with the pressure of the crisis. Ms. Gu said that the most intuitive performance is the frequency of use of credit cards are significantly lower, and even some American friends specifically to have thrifty habits of Chinese students to "learn from".　　Ms. Gu also found that more than 8 dollars of work per hour has been getting smaller. This may just be a microcosm of the change in American spending habits, and the fact is that Americans who have never saved, in addition to reducing their consumption, are starting to save. The rise in the willingness to save reflects, in another way, that the willingness to consume is gradually falling.　　So, from the other side of the ocean, "made in China" products, what kind of situation will be faced?　　Macro-American transition China exports face demand pressure vs. structural adjustment as one of China's main trade target countries, the reduction of US consumer demand will undoubtedly bring new pressure to China's newly improved foreign trade situation.　　China's exports have exceeded hundreds of billions of dollars for three consecutive months, especially in September, with exports amounting to $115.94 billion trillion, a single monthly high since the year. Shanxi Securities Macro-analyst Ile that in the September export three major trading methods, processing trade continued to better than general trade, indicating that external demand recovery pull more obvious. From the export through the seasonal adjustment of the changes, the year-on-year decline narrowed, the chain followingcontinued to rise, reflecting the real recovery of exports.　　Ile estimates that the four-quarter export recovery is more certain, and that labour-intensive products may still be smaller in terms of major trade products. But it is noteworthy that in China's export structure, processing trade and labor-intensive products are mostly textile clothing and other daily necessities.　　This means that exports have largely benefited from a pick-up in short-term demand. For September, the reason for the sharp decline in exports, the bank reported that, in addition to the world economy continued to rebound, "Western Thanksgiving, Christmas and other consumption season concentrated in the four quarter, and the three quarter has always been the export season." And the National day of the Mid-Autumn Festival 8 days long holiday, leading to some foreign trade enterprises in advance shipments.　　"What is worrying is that the export of holiday demand will continue to be supported by what?" Data from the Customs Administration yesterday showed that the United States is still the first country to export to China this year.　　The month of September, the total exports of U.S. products amounted to 21.16 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for the month's total exports more than 18%. Recent U.S.-China trade is not a smooth sailing, not only the lack of long-term U.S. demand for China's export support, and from the recent series of US actions, seems to have a significant weakening of China's economic advantages of strategic considerations. Zhang Yuqui, deputy director of the Oriental Management Research Center at Shanghai Foreign Studies University, is worried that if the United States is to restructure the competitive advantage of the real industry and successfully export fast growth through the depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of the renminbi, it is not only possible to break the division pattern of "American consumption-Chinese production"　　And will greatly squeeze China's core interests in the global value chain.　　Zhaofeng, deputy director of the Bank Schroeder Investment, said that this year, China's economic rebound mainly from the government-driven fixed asset investment, while the impetus for the economic independent recovery is still not enough, in the credit-fuelled investment growth is unsustainable and export growth is facing a decline, China's economic restructuring has become increasingly urgent. Fortunately, the "structure" has become a central economic policy throughout the core.　　　　And 21st, the State Council executive meeting in the study of the deployment of the next few months of economic work, made clear that the next few months of this year, should be properly handled to maintain stable and rapid economic development, adjustment of economic structure and management of inflation expectations of the relationship as the focus of macro-control.　　What is the true intention of the United States to restructure the real economy by throwing away financial hegemony? ——— interview with PhD in Finance, renowned macroeconomic analyst Cheng The United States will not immediately withdraw from the reconstruction of the financial system, but the follow-up policy to promote the overall recovery of the real economy is also being implemented, and will be more developed.　　The financial crisis is not the fuse of America's withdrawal from the traditional industry, but the need for the traditional industry to raise the concentration of the industry and to be reborn again in the forefront of the world.　　The US will not abandon the recovery of the financial system Reporter: Has the United States given a signal to the real economy in a series of policies that have been taken to revive the economy? Cheng: Now the U.S. is starting to focus on the real economy. I agree with this view, which showsis a long-term direction. But long-term trends do not imply short-term evolution. I personally think: the policy on the virtual economy and the real economy, this is somewhat similar to the market said a lot of "exit problem", a consensus is "before the economic stabilisation, easing policy will continue."　　I would like to imitate the phrase: "Before the economic cycle, the recovery policy on the financial system will continue to emphasize."　　Tilt to the real economy should be "policy follow-up" Reporter: The United States will readjust its financial and other virtual economic components and the development of real economic components of the proportion?　　Cheng: In fact, "policy to the real economy tilt", this is a "policy follow-up" problem.　　In the short term, financial risks have not been clear, the financial system has only survived the survival crisis, the current recovery policy is to promote the ability of the financial system to restore the priority, after the completion of this goal to focus on long-term real estate industry.　　Interviewer: So what do you think of the current set of policies in the United States?　　Cheng: According to the analysis just now, it is not difficult to understand one of the characteristics embodied in many American policies: Financial policy objectives are clear and informative, and the real economy policy, in addition to temporary stimulus policy, the real medium and long-term structural adjustment policy, more vague, more like the G20 on the "Long Live Free trade" slogan.　　Reporter: The recent U.S. attention to the new energy industry will become its restructuring of the real economy new fingers?　　Cheng: Of course, the new energy policy is relatively informative, but this trend is universal, not the United States, we are engaged in, it is only possible that the new energy industry in the United States itself has advantages, the development of a more detailed place can focus. US adjusts industrial structure to increase industry concentration journalist: Will the pattern of Chinese production-American consumption change?　　What impact will the US adjust its industrial structure on its position in the global Division of labor? Cheng: The next question is how we view the industrial restructuring of the United States and the change in the global division of labor. The general view is that the United States has a high production rate of industries, China is still addicted to traditional industries, we should improve the status of the global division of labor and so on.　　Of course, this is certainly true.　　Reporter: The U.S. auto industry has been under great pressure since the financial crisis, then they will put aside these traditional advantages of the industry? Cheng: There are opportunities in the new industry.　　But that does not mean that there is no competition in traditional industries, and I think that traditional industries are the most stable source of economic interest, and the United States has never thought of withdrawing from the global Division of labor in the industry. We can further from the recent U.S. policy to see its traditional industries, traditional profit points do not abandon the characteristics of not abandoning. For example, the car, the state aid will not say, I found an important place, that is, after the crisis bottomed, that is, in the last three or four months, the recovery of U.S. car production lags far behind the recovery of car consumption, the production gap in fact to other countries in the automotive industry exports have brought positive. America does not want to see this temporary loss of demand become a permanent streamLost, so it began to engage in "old car for a new car" program, reversing the international level of the American traditional automobile industry to erode. The United States in the short term this kind of indirect protection behavior more, if combined with the trade protectionism we often see and the depreciation of the dollar, then the United States in the short term to the international community to protect traditional industries through crisis recovery in the transition phase of the potential demand is clear.