An analysis of the causes of "fluctuation" in online education encounters LSC

Sohu Science and Technology article/Mao

the "farce" of the online education capital market. March 26, the A-share online education sector fell more than 6.5%, at least more than 5 stocks touched the plate, but also created a a-share market, the biggest decline since 2015. and the creation of a-share market biography of the total education (up to 348 yuan) fell by more than 15% two days. Why is online education met with "LSC"? The newsletter daily (micro-letter: maoqiying2008) communicates with online education barons and capital analysts. On the surface, a a-share is the policy market, the SFC named the full pass education is the fuse, and the deeper reason is related to online education companies are still only in the story-telling stage, homogenization, lack of profit model and performance support, when many bubbles burst, surfaced.


on the reason of "fluctuation" in online education capital market


1, the big guy clarifies the relations with the whole pass education


Survey found that online education in the early days of "crazy trading tide" behind the driving force for "acquisitions, mergers." The acquisition frenzy of online education covers a wide range of areas, ranging from early childhood education, K12, vocational education to art matching. For example, full-pass education, to 1.13 billion of the acquisition of online education Network, Xi ' an acquisition Yue, and then rose from 96.7 to 348 yuan, and rumors behind the rumours stood Yu, Jiangnan Spring, Ying, Guisonglei and Ding five famous guys. However, the day before yesterday, New Oriental Chairman Yu Hong Weibo clear and full-pass education relations, said "does not occupy any shares."


In addition, the new Nanyang issued through the acquisition of Ngong Li Technology to complete the online education layout, the controlling shareholder cast 5 million shares, set now 232 million.


2, policy, the SFC named


said the CSRC would crack down on price manipulation, naming all education. Despite the fact that the company has not received any investigation orders about the SFC's alleged manipulation of the stock price, it is best for most people who do not know the truth.


3, overvalued "Internet +" the Pig on the tuyere.


well-known financial commentator Shupi wrote: "The whole education more and more like that only standing in the Tuyere pig, the tuyere is of course the so-called Internet +." Full-pass education is not a bubble, this question does not need to answer, only from the market value, the total value of more than 30 billion yuan has not only long surpassed the new Oriental, but also a considerable number of real internet companies of the total market value. ”


Analysis by institutional researchers, full-pass education revenue less than 200 million a year, profit from the current forecast from 40 million to 50 million, annual growth of not more than 20%; although there is an online education concept, growth is not good. In addition to the full education, playing online education under the banner of Crazy "wild horse" may need to be vigilant, do not rule out the main players to take the opportunity to leave, leaving the retail and silly households left behind sentry duty.


4, online Education International listed companies poor performance


In addition to the A-share listed companies, the performance of listed companies in foreign countries are also questioned. According to the relevant channel statistics, China has a total of 11 local education and training institutions listed overseas, the force of the online education of several mediocre performance, and even did not achieve profitability.


New Oriental 2015 fiscal year, the second fiscal quarter earnings showed that the profit was down 44%;


School was founded in 2009, is a good future of the seven major brands. Financial reports disclosed that 2013-year study and thought school accounted for about 3% of the group's income, about 50 million yuan, and brought a loss of 1 million dollars;


Education released in the 2014 fiscal year the last quarter and the year without the audit results showed that the total net revenue of education in the quarter of 59.7 million U.S. dollars, than the same period last year, 69.1 million U.S. dollars down 13.6%, net loss of 16.7 million U.S. dollars, compared with the same period last year, the net loss of 4.3 million U.S.


New Oriental also fried online education, the U.S. stock price of 21.98 U.S. dollars, the market value of 3.4 billion U.S. dollars, 2015 fiscal year second quarter earnings, net profit of 2.4 million U.S. dollars, down 44%.


In addition to these direct reasons, there is a deeper reason behind, is the current online education "soft rib."


1, heavy concept hype, lack of online education core competitiveness Products


"Capital chasing online education itself is a good thing, I don't think the online education capital market is in a bubble", who study CEO Chen Xiangdong that the capital market is very concerned about education financing, even the educational institutions have a low profit, but the capital market valuation is very high. No matter how hot the capital, the company to go farther, or first to do a good product.


public data show that the full-pass education at the beginning of the listing, the main income from the mobile "school communications" business, a primary and secondary schools (kindergartens) and parents to provide instant, convenient, efficient communication and interactive services "information Service platform." As local authorities on the "school communication" has been stopped, the whole-pass education began to lay online education, looking for new profit growth drive, the total of 1.13 billion yuan to acquire two online education companies in the network and Xi ' an acquisition Yue, only to officially enter the online education market.


New South Nanyang recently the stock price also appeared to soar, since last year put into the Shanghai Ang state Technology, the new Nanyang only became pure education shares. But the science and technology business scope mainly covers children's education, middle school students ' extracurricular interest training, language training, adult education and so on, and there is no online education business. A broker in Shanghai said the new Nanyang may set up its own company this year or enter the online education field through mergers and acquisitions.


, an online education official interviewed by the newsletter, said that mobile early "school communication" is also counted as online education products, you can send text messages to parents through this platform. Now, the popular app is also an online education product that can interact with parents. However, in many online education platforms, educational products rely mainly on the collection of course fees, only the traditional offline education sales channels and use of the scene moved to the line, this is the so-called online education products, and did not fundamentally achieve the essence of online education.


In addition, there is a class of listed companies, only provide technical support, but also the "Online Education" banner. The newsletter notes that the online education sector has been classified as the Enlightenment message, a few days ago announced that "the company currently has no online education services and products." ”


Internet trends and marketing expert Shoming said that teaching content is the core of online education, ensuring the quality of content, differentiation and scarcity is the direction of future online education development.


2, Internet + or + Internet, still in groping stage


on the eve of the "plunge" in all-pass education, the micro-trust Circle of friends circulated two pictures of the full pass education, the entire education headquarters in a dilapidated office building. A netizen message: "So high market value of a company, headquarters in a dilapidated office building, can not help but surprising." ”


an online education official said that in the past three years, the concept of "online education" more than the actual, most users will also "online learning" and "video teaching" to draw an equal sign, and most institutions brain drain phenomenon is serious. Online education needs to understand the Internet educators and educated Internet integration, and now many so-called online education institutions, or "+ Internet", a group of educators do not understand the Internet, or is a simple app, and the real meaning of the online education is far from the difference.

Yi Dinghong, chairman of
Education, said in an interview with the communications daily that the capital had entered the pure Internet education, and 99% would have failed.


3, the profit model is uncertain


Guotai released 2013-2014 China online education Trends report shows that the mobile end in learning progress, voice interaction, no need for networking, interface design, such as better than the PC endpoint education: 56% users have the willingness to pay for mobile online education app, reflecting the user has to pay for high-quality content. However, among those who are willing to pay, more than 50% of the users can accept the price of products within 10 yuan, which is close to the price range of most mobile phone applications.


at present, the domestic online education profit mainly depends on content charge, service charge, software charge, platform Commission and advertisement five charge mode. Chi Yanming, chairman of Beijing Li Chen said that from the business model, the current platform's profit point is mainly divided into and advertising costs, and education products are mainly based on the charge of course fees, but the traditional offline education sales channels and use of the scene moved to the line.


Yu believes that online education has a variety of patterns, one of the characteristics is that most of the free, but free for the sustainable development of enterprises does not make sense. The possible future profit point is through the Internet platform for parents, students to provide a truly personalized service, but also irreplaceable, so that it has paid value.


2015, is destined to be online education "Shuffle Year"

According to
, an online educational institution was born almost daily on average in 2014. Some institutions predict that the 2015 online education users are expected to break billion, market size will be headed to 150 billion yuan, to maintain the growth of about 25%.


can not be ignored, in 2014, online education in the field of more than 30 failed cases, some companies have been financing after the announcement of dissolution, the industry cooked gong online education business setbacks, ladder nets spend light financing, announced the dissolution. 21st Century Institute of Macro research researcher Wang Pengshan wrote that according to incomplete statistics, 2014 online Education in the field of investment and financing mainly involved in foreign language (curriculum) education, K12 Education, early education, it education, study abroad (curriculum), vocational education, platform class, such as seven categories, total investment in the amount of more than 4.4 billion yuan However, in the capital of the hot entry, while the online education bubble has emerged, many star entrepreneurs to the collapse of the online education sector sounded the alarm, in the next year, the online education industry will usher in a larger shuffle.


to this, Chen Xiangdong in the "Communication Life" exclusive interview, said that most of the online education companies in the second half of 2013 to the first half of 2014 to get financing, the estimated 2015 20–30% institutions will be eliminated. Chen Xiangdong believes that bat into online education, and ultimately the industry to a large-scale monopoly, while the online education market segments may be 1-2 monopoly platform, other platforms may be eliminated.


Chi Yanming also said that "the entire online education industry in the 2014 showed a big hot trend, many companies have layout, the two-tier market is also high." With the disappearance of the industry bubble, many online education companies have failed because of excessive burning of money but unable to find a way to profit. ”


Therefore, 2015 is destined to be an extraordinary year of online education, "Shuffle" may run through the always.  After a a-share online plate encounters a bubble, whether can rationally promote online education forward, wait and see.