Analysis of the housing market in Hong Kong more than the price of next year or down 30%

April 6 Afternoon News According to the new budget released by the Hong Kong government, the number of residential units planned for this year will reach 30,000 to 40,000.　　Today, a market personage said to Sina Finance, the government provides a large number of units, oversupply will lead to a fall in property prices, and more investment banks expect that by the end of next year, Hong Kong property prices will fall by 30%. In the latest budget released at the end of February, the Hong Kong government plans to launch a total of 52 residential sites in the new fiscal year, which will provide about 16,000 flats, up from about 9,000 flats in the previous fiscal year, by more than 70%.　　Together with a number of tenders and redevelopment projects, the estimated private residential land supply in the new fiscal year will be 30,000 to 40,000 flats, well above the annual average of 20,000 units. The Financial Secretary, Mr Tsang Chun-wah, said that the risk of asset bubbles was a major challenge for the coming year and that the government should tackle the problem of the medium and long term property market by introducing more land and fundamentally ensuring adequate housing and land supply, so that the property market would not overheat.　　This idea is reflected in the number of units that the Government has introduced in the new fiscal year over the past few years. However, market participants do not quite agree with the government's idea of "more and better supply of residential units". From April 1 to 6th, the group visited more than 500 fund managers and analysts worldwide through an electronic questionnaire and telephone survey to find out their views on the Hong Kong property market, one of which is the survey on the supply of residential units in Hong Kong.　　According to the questionnaire, about 65.9% of the respondents said that it was sufficient for Hong Kong to provide about 20,000 flats a year. Huang, vice chairman of the United States Union, said to Sina finance that according to the information provided by the rating and valuation Department, the average number of residential units in Hong Kong in each of the past 20 years was about 20,000 units.　　It is understandable that the Government has substantially increased the supply of land this year to fill the shortfall of supply in the past two years. A study by Barclays Capital said the rise in mortgage rates in Hong Kong's property market would cut buyers ' purchasing power and create a negative climate for investors.　　The bank expects mortgage rates in Hong Kong to rise from 2.5% at the end of this year to about 4% per cent at the end of next year, while Hong Kong property prices will adjust from 25% to 30% by 2012. In this connection, Huang said that the Hong Kong property market is mainly determined by supply and demand, interest rates will have an impact on property prices, but the impact is not significant. He said he hoped that the Government would carefully consider increasing the supply of residential flats, and if the scheme for the introduction of 30,000 to 40,000 units would be implemented this year, the Hong Kong property market would have the opportunity to repeat the fate of 97 years later, and the property prices would fall to the bottom of the economy, which would be a (Xiao Ying from Hong Kong)