Analysis: Only goods will be single quarter 880 million dollars behind

Remember at the beginning of 2014, our side of an analyst and I said that electricity Shangte sell website only product will share price breakthrough 100 of dollars, this time may not be too late, I did not start. Later, only a few months later, only the stock price soared to 230 U.S. dollars, already regret.

Only in the near future after the stock price split, released its 2014 third quarter earnings. Earnings showed that the total net revenue for the third quarter was $882.6 million trillion, up 130% from 383.7 million trillion in the same period last year, with a net profit of $27.7 million for the sole shareholder, and 12 million per cent for the same period last year.

From 380 million dollars to 880 million of dollars in growth, in less than 1 years, this may only be the Chinese electric business environment to appear such a miracle. According to the only 8 consecutive quarters of rapid growth in the pace of the fourth quarter of 2014, the net revenue of the goods will be very likely to exceed 1 billion U.S. dollars.

The Chinese market is big enough to stop

China has a network of internet people and e-commerce shoppers who are envious of any internet company in the world, which we call the demographic dividend. With China's demographic dividend, a large number of excellent internet companies have emerged in China's land.

We put the vision back to the only goods will come up, the only thing will do is special sellers, Q3 active users less than 10 million, but created a single quarter of 880 million U.S. dollars of revenue. In other words, China has more than 300 million of the online consumer groups, only the active users of the product will occupy only about 3% of the future 97% of the space can be developed to grow. In accordance with the rapid development of e-commerce in China every year, TJV (Taobao, Beijing-east, only goods will) three of the growth of electric dealers will not meet the ceiling in the short term, unless that day is really like Ma Yun said the electricity business to occupy China's 50% retail sales.

"Thousand people Thousand Faces" the mobile client exerting force

In the past year or two, one of the things our internet giants have done is to move users from their PCs to the mobile end. Youku and other video sites, the PC to watch the video needs to load 1 minutes of advertising, while the phone end of almost no advertising, or mobile phone clients can see the updated video in advance; NET and other local life service website, if through mobile phone rental house, there will be more preferential subsidies; Alipay and so on through the PC transfer will be charged, through the mobile phone is free ...

The advent of mobile internet has already become a consensus. It is clear that the only product will be aware of this, and do a series of "the user to the mobile phone" action. From 2009 Shenya and other people to start the product will begin to move the end of the layout, after not only set up a separate mobile division, now more in the United States to establish research and development center in Silicon Valley, focusing on large data research and development, and this large data research and development is mainly for the follow-up of the "Thousand people face" personalized shopping experience to do accumulation. In the author's opinion, the so-called thousand Faces is "each of us see the page is not the same, this is not the same as the use of large data algorithms, analysis of your past behavior to do after the".

In the Q3 earnings after the investors conference call, only the product will chairman and CEO Shenya further said: "Only products will ' thousand-face ' service has begun testing use, especially on the mobile end." The thousand faces are still in the testing and accumulating experience stage, so sometimes open 50% of the flow to test, and sometimes open 30% of the flow to test, this service on the customer unit price and conversion rate of the promotion of a great help, so "thousand thousand noodles" service should be fully open in the fourth quarter. “

It is understood that the mobile end of the three quarter contributed to only 57% of the turnover, only 15% in the third quarter of last year, the number of October this year is 65%. In China, the more than half of the mobile end of the electricity quotient is often similar to the only product of the New Years of the establishment of enterprises. If true as Shenya said, only the fourth quarter of the total release of the "Thousand people Thousand Faces", the fourth quarter only will move performance will continue to go higher, and customer stickiness will be further enhanced.

Logistics, logistics, or logistics

Whether it is China, or the United States, E-commerce has developed to a certain extent, in the information level of every home is very high, the core competitiveness is the construction of logistics system. We found a very interesting phenomenon, China is lagging behind the United States, but in China E-commerce development is better than the United States, a big reason is that China's electricity business logistics system is more cost-effective than the United States.

In the United States, a large number of electric operators are basically the consumption of dozens of to 100 dollars above free shipping, the general standard distribution is 5-7 days to send, if the need for expedited or even the next day, the need to pay a few dollars to dozens of dollars in cost. And China's netizens to be happy many, within 3 days of arrival is a big express, most of the area can be achieved, and the freight is much lower than the United States.

China to do the best electric business, must be in the logistics of a successful enterprise, including Jingdong, Suning easy to buy, and even millet. Only goods will be the same, only the goods will be invested mainly in the logistics infrastructure, including the "last kilometer" of the construction. Data show that at present only goods will be the national storage area of 700,000 square meters, now at the same time in the construction of the area of 600,000 square meters, at the same time only the goods will be actively invested and shares a number of High-quality Express enterprises (I estimate, millet future will also focus on this matter), together to build a good logistics system.

Summary: In my opinion, a power company to achieve great success, should meet the following two factors-external factors and intrinsic factors. External factors stable situation, the enterprise cultivation of internal strength is very critical, the strength of team building, information system support, logistics system construction is the most important work. Only goods will be in both internal and external favorable situation, the scale effect is gradually obvious, the future growth prospects are still expected.