Analysis says there will be no monopoly in the Smartphone OS field

Beijing time September 14 morning news, according to foreign media reports, Google's Andorid operating system development momentum is very rapid, Gaterner is expected to say that Android to 2014 will occupy 29.6% of the market share, It was inferred that Android might monopolize the smartphone operating system like the Windows Monopoly PC industry. And recently, American investment company Needham analyst Charlie　　(Charlie Wolf) thinks this is impossible because the smartphone market lacks the conditions to form a "winner-all" outcome. The first reason, he argues, is that the smartphone market does not currently have a so-called "killer" application.　　It would be possible to move to a single platform if it were true that the "killer" level applied to IBM's once Lotus 1-2-3 form Office software would be available. The second reason is that the application of viscous is not enough. Most smartphone applications have a short learning curve and are inexpensive to lock users on a single platform.　　There is no high price like the Microsoft Office or Adobe Creative Suite to ensure user loyalty to a particular platform. The last reason is that mobile operators will try to stop the winners from happening because it lowers the operator's grip on the market.　　At present, mobile operators are almost the only sales channels for smartphones worldwide.　　Now that the smartphone market doesn't have a monopoly on Android, how does it evolve? "We believe that Google's enclosure strategy will allow Android to eventually occupy more than 40% per cent of the market, and as the number of operators increases, the iphone will have a market share of 25%," Woolf said. "Nokia's market share will drop to 20%, or even lower, from 39% now."　　BlackBerry's market share will fall to around 10%, while Windows Phone's share will linger around 5%. The most uncertain of our predictions is Windows Phone, which is likely to have a much larger market share than expected. The likely increase in market share for Windows phone will come largely from the lost share of Andorid, as both Microsoft and Google are trying to win the support of the same group of smartphone makers, most notably HTC, Samsung, LG and Motorola. "(slides)