Analysts say a tipping point for refined oil prices may be lowered by end of month

Wang Kanpeng "Keep up with the fall!"　　"The cycle of China's oil product adjustment is expected to be broken by the end of this month. Yesterday, international oil prices were still hovering at the 60 dollar/barrel pass. International oil prices have fallen by more than 10% since June 30 when the National Development and Reform Commission raised oil prices.　　According to the new refined oil pricing mechanism "international oil prices 22 consecutive business days moving average price changes more than 4%", the domestic Product price adjustment time window has been opened. The month of 27th will be the deadline for another valuation period.　　Yesterday, a CBN reporter interviewed the industry experts expected, according to the current trend to judge, if no "super reversal", the international oil price rate of change negative to below 4% has become a foregone conclusion, the domestic product price is expected to achieve the second cut since this year. Price Adjustment Time window open International crude oil prices continue to linger in the doldrums. As of yesterday's close, WTI and OPEC crude oil prices fell by 0.20 and 0.72 dollars per barrel respectively, closing at 60 USD/barrel.　　Brent crude prices rose slightly by 0.17 dollars and closed at $60.69/barrel. It is noteworthy that since June 30 the national Development and Reform Commission announced a rise in oil prices of 600 yuan/ton, the international oil price has continued the overall decline of several trading days.　　In the case of Brent crude, yesterday's closing price fell by 14.51% compared with the 70.99 dollars/barrel closed on June 30. Since the actual implementation of the oil fuel tax reform in the beginning of this year, China has formally begun to implement a new pricing mechanism for refined oil products.　　According to Jian, chief analyst of Oriental Oil and gas network, entering July, the international benchmark crude oil average (WTI) is about $65 per barrel, down by about $3.7 per barrel compared to the previous monthly average, and to July 13, three crude oil averaged about $64 a barrel, compared with the base period, where the rate of change has been negative below 4% per cent. "On July 27, the deadline of another valuation period, the average price of three kinds of international crude oil (Brent, Dubai, Sinta) as long as below 64 U.S. dollars per barrel and stay at this price, the conditions for domestic product price adjustment is satisfied." According to the current trend of international crude oil prices, there will be no big problems, the international oil price rate of change negative to below 4% has become a foregone conclusion. If not unexpected, domestic oil prices should be reduced at the end of the month.　　"Jian said. On the domestic oil prices, the community has always been "keep up with the fall" of the blame voice. Since the beginning of the international oil price rebound, the national Development and Reform Commission in March this year, early June and the end of June three times up the price of refined oil, steam, diesel prices are cumulative increase of 1290 yuan per ton and 1180 yuan.　　If the end of the month to achieve downward, domestic finished oil prices continue to rise will draw a full stop. Am or again lower in the strong downward expectations, the domestic product prices have begun to loose a wide range. CBN reporter in Beijing Chaoyang District Sinopec a gas station to see the interview, oil station roof hanging out a long red banner, wrote: "93#汽油由6.37/Liter to 6.25 yuan/liter.　　"For Sinopec, which has been keeping the price stable, it is rare to take the initiative to reduce prices." According to the market monitoring report of Zhuo Chuang information, sensitive to market reaction in Shandong Province, the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel has been the first to fall to June 30 before the price adjustment, north China, east China, South China and the southwest of the decline is also more rapid, the current price and before the adjustment of profit only hundred yuan difference, and there is no stop falling phenomenon,　　It is expected that the late River market will continue to decline. Bin, an analyst at the Changjiang Securities market, said the possibility of domestic product prices to be lowered at the end of the month was increasing under the current trend of international oil prices.　　If the international oil price in 60 dollars/barrel below the level, reference to the experience of the previous adjustment, the domestic product price reduction should be in the range of 400 to 500 yuan/ton.　　However, Jian said that the state authorities, in addition to considering three crude oil change rate broken 4% of the basic conditions, will also consider the profitability of the main refining enterprises, the need to measure the affordability of consumer terminals, the need to take into account the social pressure of public opinion and other related factors, the actual amplitude modulation should not be strictly in accordance with the decline in international oil prices to carry out. "June 30 to increase oil prices, in accordance with the cost of crude oil, taxes, processing and sales profits of enterprises, the increase in the fulfilment should be 900 yuan/ton above, but was deliberately reduced to 600 yuan/ton." In view of this factor, this reduction is more likely in 200 yuan/ton. "Jian said.