Analysts say policymakers are intensively investigating or preparing for policy fine-tuning

Xiangjian Sun Shubo in the face of economic recovery and possible inflationary risks, policymakers have recently been intensively surveyed.　　In the view of some analysts, the move may be a preparation for fine-tuning the second half of the macro-control policy. Inflationary pressures are an important basis for the likelihood of inflation later in the year, as the process of negative CPI growth since the second half may have bottomed out.　　This means that prices will end down and regain momentum, although the climb may be modest.　　In recent months, although the CPI is still negative compared with the same period last year, the chain has begun to show positive growth.　　Standard Chartered Bank economist Li Wei believes that the demand recovery has significantly affected prices, the CPI is expected to be positive in August, the annual CPI rise will be around 0.5%.　　Moreover, despite the pressure of overcapacity, there are still a number of factors that could lead to inflation. The first is excess liquidity, which will definitely exceed 6 trillion trillion yuan in the first half of the year, already exceeding its full-year target.　　Economist Shen Minggao that China's current easing of liquidity is the biggest since the Asian financial crisis of 1997.　　Shen Minggao that, with past experience, each easing of liquidity has been accompanied by high CPI inflation and high asset price inflation, with CPI generally rising by more than 5% per cent. Second, a quick rebound in commodity prices will put pressure on domestic input prices and push the CPI up.　　Recently, international oil prices hovered around 70 dollars/barrel, doubling about $30 from the end of last year, and the Reuters CRB index, a commodity index that reflects the overall trend in commodity prices, has risen by more than 60% per cent from its low this March. Moreover, inflationary expectations are likely to be self-fulfilling. If the market expects monetary authorities to "turn" in time when inflation rises, inflation expectations will be suppressed, whereas inflation expectations may be high.　　Chen Xingdong, chief economist at Paris Securities, said that in the asset market, for example, if market participants expected prices to rise, they would go home and that would push up prices. Historically, asset prices and CPI are strongly correlated and tend to lead the CPI.　　The Shanghai Composite Index has risen about 60% per cent since the start of the year, and prices in major cities have risen by nearly 30%.　　Shen Minggao that under inflation expectations, the price of two types of goods is likely to rise fastest: a supply-bound commodity, such as pork in the last round of inflation, and commodities with smaller demand elasticity, such as food.　　The cornerstone of the rebound is unstable although it may face inflationary pressures, some academics believe that the cornerstone of the current economic recovery and the pressure of growth will limit the likelihood of policy adjustments. "From the 3 April data, there is a notable correction, which clearly shows the underlying fragility of the recovery."　　Zhang Yansheng, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Foreign Economic Research Institute. Zhao Jinping, Vice Minister of Economic Affairs at the Development Research Center of the State Council, also said that from the domestic market, the CPI continuedLower, reflecting the objective situation of sluggish domestic demand, the economy has long been to good conditions is still immature, "in the short term, there is little likelihood of a drastic adjustment in policy." "And from May data, although the industrial growth and other data continue to drift red, but the power generation, corporate deposits and other data, but did not improve or even turn downward."　　It also shows that the cornerstone of the recovery is still precarious.　　Li Jianwei, Director of macro-economic Research center of the State Council, said in a recent forum that it is not easy to say that the economic recovery, the current warmer is a kind of policy rebound, the external need for a sustained downturn, to stimulate the strength of investment policies can be maintained, the high consumption growth of residents is not optimistic　　Stephen Green, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank, also believes only if senior policymakers have sufficient confidence in the recovery will the central bank normalize monetary policy and introduce a policy of restricting lending growth, which is expected to continue in the next three months-or even longer-because the momentum of economic growth is still being suppressed. The economic Situation analysis Meeting of the State Council in mid-June also made it clear that the policy of "double easing" should be maintained.　　Moreover, as the central government's new investment funds gradually allocated, fiscal policy stimulus gradually weakened, monetary policy will become the main hand for growth. Treasury data show that the first five months of the central government's public investment budget has been allocated more than 60%, of which 1.18 trillion yuan in two years the central new investment has been arranged more than half, this year has been all arranged.　　Li Jianwei That means that fiscal spending may weaken slowly.　　In addition, some scholars believe that maintaining a certain inflation expectations, to stimulate consumption and promote economic recovery. Policies can be fine-tuned from current data analysis, the two-quarter growth rate will show signs of a rebound. But whether it will face new difficulties in the three quarter is not yet predictable. If the impact of external demand factors and the weakening of investment momentum, resulting in the economic decline in the momentum, policy efforts may also increase.　　If the economy continues to be good in the three quarter, there should be no more big stimulus plans. Chen Dongki, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, said in a media interview that the next two quarters, from the control of the choice of measures, fiscal and monetary policy should still maintain the choice since October last year, spending will increase, tax reduction measures to continue.　　On the fiscal front, there are two areas of space, whether incremental or tax-cut.　　As for the issues that need to be concerned about at present, Zhang Yansheng thinks is: 4 trillion investment plan, the local fund in place rate is low, the social capital is not moved, the share of bank credit is small and the proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing is smaller; "The next step is to increase the number of targeted structural measures outside the overall expansionary policy," he said. "Zhang Yansheng said," including the increase in tax cuts, expand the market access of private enterprises, pay attention to SME credit system construction and policy financial support, and so on. "