April Credit basic steady launch strategy unchanged

After 3 months of running, the credit finally slowly gasped. After 51, the market is widely expected to have a "high dive" in credit growth in April, with even a forecast of only 400 billion yuan.　　If so, the rapid slide from March to 1.89 trillion would be tantamount to a "slam-landing".　　This reporter May 5 to a number of commercial banking sector to conduct a survey, these people's judgment is that the April new credit is indeed more than the first three months significantly down, a single month of new loans should be 500 billion yuan-600 billion yuan.　　Although this size is equivalent to about 1/3 of the March Peak, many commercial bankers think it is not a "big drop", but a "intermittent callback" under a combination of factors.　　They also expect that, in the future, the commercial banks will not sharply shrink credit by the grim earnings pressures of the year, but will enter a rational period of credit restructuring while moderately growing, with High-yield credit assets crowding out of low-yielding bills.　　"500 billion-600 billion" according to the monitoring data of a state-owned bank, April Credit will reach a maximum of 600 billion yuan, more likely in the 500 billion-600 billion-yuan range. According to a number of commercial banks comprehensive statistics, the April credit growth characteristics and the first three months, still appear "before the high" situation, even in the first half of the month once the balance "negative growth."　　This is actually a process of extruding the March credit "moisture".　　What is different is that, after three months of "trillion", credit did not hit a new high in the last week or even the last two days, but showed weakness. "April Although also appeared at the end of the inertia, but this inertia is much smaller than March."　　"A credit department person at CCB said. The people said that his bank's last two days of new loans in the "20.03 trillion yuan." and March, due to quarterly assessment pressure, grassroots banks more control rhythm at the end of the month concentrated lending.　　Among them, ICBC, BOC, Agricultural Bank of China at the end of the two-day delivery are close to or even more than hundred billion.　　According to the previous four lines occupy half of the total credit scale forecast, a number of commercial bankers predicted that the national banking institutions of new loans of about 5000.6 trillion yuan.　　This data compared to January of 1.62 trillion, February 1.07 trillion, March 1.89 trillion, it can be said that the decline is obvious.　　Early payments and "customers are hard to find" these commercial bankers predicted that, despite the drop in the new credit is obvious, but the April pullback may only be a phased correction, the extent of such a correction, on the one hand by the Commercial Bank's quarterly assessment Baton, on the other hand, also subject to strict supervision, the real　　A Beijing branch of CCB, who declined to be named, said the fall in April was mainly due to the early overdraft of April credit demand in March, and advance lending. "Commercial banks particularly value the quarterly data,Especially the quarter-ending data.　　"In order to complete the assessment, banks have an impulse to lend ahead of time, and some customers and banks will seek advance lending because of concerns about a shift in credit policy," the person said. A bank of the grassroots credit manager told reporters that the bank in order to encourage lending in the first quarter, deliberately launched a "peak season marketing" strategy, that is, the first quarter of credit, in accordance with the loan target extraction 10,000 to tens of thousands of yuan reward.　　New loans for the two quarter and beyond are no longer rewarded. The reward of real gold and silver, stimulated the marketing impulse of the bank.　　Many bank-level account managers will try to persuade clients to withdraw their loans in advance in March. The bank's global financial market analyst, Shiller, predicts that the scale of early payments could account for about 1/3 of the credit scale in March, about 600 billion yuan.　　If this part of the credit that was supposed to be released in April was evenly spread to April, the actual demand in March would probably be about $1.3 trillion trillion, while April would be expected to adjust to more than 1 trillion yuan.　　A local branch of the central bank believes that this is a more rational analysis, "April fall back to contact before and after look, can not only see the month or the increase or decrease."　　Another reason for the credit slump of April was the effect of rigorous scrutiny.　　Since April, a number of regulatory and macro-policy-making departments have launched a commercial bank's credit structure, investment, bills and other inspection, its density is unprecedented.　　In addition, a number of commercial bankers believe that the real economic recovery is not obvious, the investment will be reduced, the lack of credit demand and so on, is also leading to credit Kao Jen in the April to unsustainable important reasons. The credit demand released by the real economy did not become a new pillar of credit in April, following the frantic looting of infrastructure projects in 1 and March.　　The commercial banks in Beijing, Shanghai, Ningbo and Shenzhen all reflect the "customer is hard to find". Many enterprises not only increase the demand for new loans, but also strive to advance the old loans to reduce financial pressure.　　Among them, a lot of direct financing capacity of large enterprises to repay the loan, no longer new loans, but to bond, Bill financing. "Many wanted to repay the loan in advance, the bank did not let customers in the first quarter, and in April released."　　"Even though some banks have had a lot of new loans in April, the increase in loans after the gap is still growing badly," said a bank governor, who declined to be named. A joint-stock Bank Ningbo Branch, an unnamed person told reporters: "April credit growth and March basically flat." "A joint-stock bank Beijing branch executives described is:" basically stable. "Companies are not getting out of trouble and credit growth is not good," said a shanghai-based branch of a state-owned bank. "In the absence of real economic demand, the bank's marketing strategy is not significantly adjusted for the first quarter," he said. "Now the strategy is focused on marketing national, provincial and municipal key infrastructure projects."　　"A grassroots credit manager at ICBC said.　　Therefore, state-owned enterprises at all levels are still the protagonist of the April loans, and infrastructure construction is still the main direction of credit. Infrastructure, state-owned enterprises remain major clients despite 4The month of credit drop is obvious, but commercial bankers forecast that May will be higher than April, June under the pressure of quarterly assessment, will again rush a small climax. In contrast to the first quarter, commercial banks will pay more attention to the restructuring of stocks and new loans in the future, after the early credit spike and the banks have basically completed more than 80% of the year's credit plan.　　That is to reduce the low income business such as bills, and focus on increasing the proportion of credit.　　Shandong Weifang Rural Credit Union bills business traders told reporters that since April the major commercial banks have significantly reduced the strength of the ticket, the bill business as "chicken ribs", "not much meaning." An anomalous change is that, in the case of bank paper trading is light, the bill market appears a rare "price to fall" landscape. Interest rates fell sharply in April, whether outright or repo, according to data released by China's paper network.　　Among them, the buyout-weighted average discount rate monthly 1.22, compared to the last month 0.06个千 points. In this respect, a bank of BOC declined to be named to confirm the change of the bill business strategy. He told reporters that the head office in April raised the price of special funds, and no longer encouraged to do more paper, directly led to lower business initiatives below.　　And some joint-stock banks such as Everbright began to control bills discounting and acceptance business in March and even February. But because the bill financing is still low cost compared with the loan, and the situation that the deposit interest rate hangs upside down with the same period, the demand of Enterprise Bill financing is growing rigid.　　Many banks in order to retain customers, there is a decline in the discount rate and acceptance of the surge situation.　　This also leads directly to the bank credit business "the form of outward".　　A joint-stock bank in Zhejiang Province, an unnamed person told reporters that the branch of the first four months of new acceptance of 2.2 billion yuan, and the increase in loans only 1.2 billion yuan.　　From Bank of China, CCB and other banks, the April Bill business in the new loans accounted for will continue to decline.　　However, another problem that cannot be neglected is that although commercial banks are completing the transformation of loan structure of "reducing bills" and "increasing loans" from the perspective of profits and shareholder returns, they have not changed the investment structure and customer structure of infrastructure investment and state-owned enterprises.　　A bank account manager says banks are wary of economic fundamentals and loans to small and medium-sized businesses, as corporate orders have not improved and product prices have fallen. In Ningbo, Shanxi and other fields, some small and medium-sized enterprises lending rate reached 12-14%, is twice times the benchmark interest rate, and the low is basically on the basis of the benchmark lending rate of 50% floating. This led to a sharp increase in SME operating pressure.