April foreign Exchange account innovation high experts warn hot money flow risk

BEIJING, May 26 (Xinhua): China's April foreign exchange accounted for a new record of new experts warning hot money to flow risk reporter Wang Yu, Yiu Junfang, the People's Bank of China recently released data show that　　By the end of April, China's foreign exchange accounted for the total of 20,345,370,000,000 yuan, more than March 286.31 billion yuan, the increase to create a recent new highs.　　Data show that in the first 4 months of this year, China's foreign exchange accounted for a total of about 1.0341 trillion yuan, compared to the February 179.5 billion yuan, March 270.1 billion yuan, the April increase further expansion. Foreign exchange accounts for the bank's acquisition of foreign exchange assets corresponding to the national currency. Generally speaking, the trade surplus, the use of foreign capital and foreign hot money inflow and other factors are the main driving force for the sharp rise in foreign exchange accounts.　　According to the data published by the Ministry of Commerce, China's trade surplus and the amount of foreign capital used in April is not large, foreign exchange accounted for the increase in the number of more than 200 billion yuan can not explain the part, some experts believe that a considerable part of the foreign short-term capital changes caused. The State administration of foreign exchange said that China's Cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange revenue and expenditure in general legal compliance, has not yet found foreign hot money organized, large-scale inflow into the territory.　　And the illegal inflow of hot money to take "ant move" way, presenting a more point type, infiltration characteristics. At present, the pressure of foreign hot money inflow in the short term is still relatively big.　　Zhang Ming, deputy director of the international financial Room of the China Academy of Social Sciences, who has long followed the study of hot money, said that from the second quarter of 2009, short-term international capital flows back into China, driven by the delay in China's central bank interest rate hike and the expected increase in the appreciation of the renminbi, expected to The central bank's report on China's monetary policy in the first quarter of 2010 also pointed out that, although the likelihood of a relapse into recession in the major economies is small, the risks in the financial sector have not been completely eliminated, the global economic recovery is difficult to smooth and the cross-border flows of international capital may fluctuate considerably.　　Affected by this, China's balance of payments will still face a complex international environment in the coming period, and foreign exchange net inflow trend will continue.　　The impact of the continued inflow of short-term international capital into our country is self-evident, on the one hand, the central bank will bring greater liquidity reversal pressure, on the other hand, domestic prices and asset prices will also create upward pressure. However, some experts believe that the current international economic and financial environment is extremely complex, Cross-border funds flow order may be more chaotic.　　On the one hand, the European sovereign-debt crisis could spark a new wave of capital reflux, and the possibility of a reverse flow of cross-border funds, given that the rich world's policy of low interest rates will not continue, and if stimulus policies start to exit globally. Emerging markets are showing signs of a reversal of capital in recent years, affected by the eurozone debt crisis. Hong Kong, which has historically been regarded as a border outpost of hot money, has seen an anomaly of hot money outflows in May. Overseas hot money has ceased to flow into Hong Kong in the first quarter of this year and has accelerated since May, according to a report by the Hong Kong Gold AuthorityThe trend of net outflow. Meanwhile, a recent report by Epfrglobal, a global fund tracker, also showed a 3-week net outflow of emerging-market equity funds in the period from April to May, in which the redemption of Indian equity funds reached its highest level since the end of the third quarter of 2008.　　Russian equity funds have remained stagnant for 12 consecutive weeks of capital inflows. "For some time to come, emerging countries should be prepared for the possible reversal of international capital flows," he said. "In the long run, loose monetary policy will not continue in developed countries," said Wu Qing, deputy director of the Department of Finance at the State Council's Development Research Center.　　When the world's leading central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, open the door to exit policy, if asset prices in emerging countries are pushed to outrageous levels, it could trigger a rapid exodus of international capital and trigger financial turmoil and crisis in individual emerging countries. Experts believe that the regulatory authorities should establish international capital flow risk early warning system, strengthen the real-time monitoring of capital flow risk, prevent international capital great quantities risk.