April new credit or close to $700 billion

Reporters from a number of commercial banks learned that the April new credit although not set off tide, but still more than the March 510.7 billion yuan has a certain breakthrough, or close to 700 billion yuan.　　As the first month of the quarter, 700 billion of the launch scale is rational, in line with the regulatory level of the demand for balanced delivery. A banking source said that if April was able to control that level, it would doubtless release some space for the 5 June credit launch.　　If the "3:3:2:2" Rhythm, the 2-quarter new credit scale of about 2.25 trillion yuan, will be conducive to the smooth growth of credit. The new credit in April may be slightly below $700 billion, the senior economist Lu County of Societe Generale predicts.　　Wang Tao, UBS's China chief economist, is more conservative in predicting a net increase of 500 billion to 600 billion yuan in April.　　But there is also a view that the April loan data may be higher than market expectations, and higher than the regulatory scope of regulation, not excluding the possibility of more than 700 billion yuan.　　While there is still a difference in the expected April credit forecasts, it is consistent that the likelihood of a major reversal of the market is fading, even as institutions fear that the 7.5 trillion target will not be met. According to the State Securities analysis report, from the historical data, since the central bank in 1998 announced the target of the credit plan, 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2005, the actual scale of credit has been less than the planned target. GDP growth has rebounded markedly in the 1 quarters of the past few years, and the market is expecting a marked upturn in the economy, which the report argues is similar to the current economic growth characteristics.　　In addition, last year's credit crunch made corporate capital more plentiful, and the tightening of credit did not cause undue strain on corporate capital. In addition, facing some banks already up to 17% of the deposit reserve ratio, there is analysis that the large decline in commercial banks ' excess reserves will make it necessary to continue to increase the need for statutory reserve, and therefore reserve ratio to increase the space is limited. However, some analysts have pointed out that since the current economic situation and the 2008 deposit reserve ratio reached 17.5%, there are significant differences, and due to the central bank in recent years to increase the differential deposit reserve ratio, the large banks and small and medium-sized banks and rural financial institutions, the gap is greater, so there is still a further increase in reserve requirement ratio space.