August economic data released early today or on new austerity policy

BCC, Beijing, September 11 (reporter Tisuping) according to the Chinese voice of "news in the vertical and horizontal" report, the National Bureau of Statistics will convene a press conference in a few hours, published August main macroeconomic data.　　In response to the much-watched consumer price index for August, experts and industry forecasts range between 3.3% and 3.7%, and the market's fears of higher interest rates have suddenly increased. In addition, according to the original plan, the NBS's press conference was scheduled for the next Monday, September 13, and this is the first time the bureau released economic data on the weekend.　　What kind of mystery is this? The consumer price index, in short, is the price index, which, in general, exceeds 3% indicates an inflationary trend in the economy. This year, China's target for price control is 3%, if again more than 3% in August, first of all means that prices after July again than the full year of control targets, which will aggravate the expectations of inflation, and thus affect people's expectations of higher interest rates.　　Because interest rates are the strongest means of controlling inflation, the National Bureau of Statistics, in addition to the consumer price index, will release data on the extent to which economic activity has been shown in August, including fixed asset investment in industrial production and total retail sales of consumer goods. In the past few months, China's economic growth has slowed down, some people began to worry that the Chinese economy may have two dip, so today's data will have a good performance, it is worth looking forward to.　　But judging by the rally in the August Manufacturing Purchasing index, released 1st this month, perhaps the slowdown in China's economy is weakening and entering a steady growth trend. The National Bureau of Statistics was scheduled to release August economic data in Monday, and now it's suddenly up to today, which undoubtedly adds to the market's doubts.　　In response to this issue, the reporter also called the National Bureau of Statistics related officials, they said the original schedule announced a date is a preliminary plan, the Bureau on this basis can be adjusted. Since last August, the National Bureau of Statistics, in addition to the quarterly Economic Indicators Conference, released last month's economic data on 11th, and continued until this month.　　However, the market speculation that the sudden rescheduling of data is likely to be linked to the weekend's new austerity policy, because many of the austerity measures introduced this year, such as the increase in reserve requirements and regulation of property markets 10 and other policy rules are announced on the weekend. What is the reason for the continued high of the price index forecast for August?　　If the August price level were to exceed 3.5%, or even higher, as the market had expected, would the country introduce new austerity measures to deal with inflationary expectations, and the reporters interviewed financial commentators Ma Guangyuan.　　Ma Guangyuan that the rise in food prices was an important reason for the continued high of the consumer price index in August, and that the price index could continue to move higher in the months ahead. Ma Guangyuan: In October It is actually possible to reach the highest point of the year, by AugustSeptember has been going up. If the July 3.3, then the tail factor contributed more than 60% of such a factor, in August if the CPI reached between 3.5 to 4, the most important factor may be the new price factors, rather than the tail factor.　　At least 50% of the above should be attributed to the new, such as food prices rise and so on, not the tail factor caused. So there's an essential difference between this and July, because July itself should say that the new price factor, it accounted for a small, only one-third, at least we can no longer be the current price rise, still think it is in a moderate inflation in such a state, I think even August may not be a historical high,　　Not this year's highs.　　If the price level rises sharply in the data released today, the new monetary tightening may follow, and Ma Guangyuan analysis means that monetary measures such as raising reserve reserves and increasing interest rates may come sooner. Ma Guangyuan: If we look at the data itself, as we have predicted, on the one hand, the other data of the real economy has fallen steadily, on the other hand, the price trend is not optimistic, I think there may be some action of monetary policy. I think it is possible to raise the interest rate in advance, whether it will increase the reserve requirement further.