Bank of exchange is expected to be August CPI up to 3.5% third quarter will be the year CPI peak

"Financial network," reporter Huang September 1, Bank of Communications (601328.SH/3328.HK) Development Research department released a study, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce monitoring data, since August 2010, domestic food prices overall in the process of continuous recovery, comprehensive judgment,　　The bank expected August CPI year-on-year growth between 3.3% to 3.7%, taking the number of digits of 3.5% or so, the increase will be more than July 3.3% again to create a new year, three quarter will be the year's CPI peak. The report shows that according to the Ministry of Agriculture's monitoring data estimates,　　Food prices rose by 5.7% on a month-on-month basis in August 2010; According to the survey of the Ministry of Commerce, the price of edible agricultural products rose by 2.2% in August; Given the recent general stability in non-food prices, we assume August non-food prices are up 1.6% per cent year-on-year. "On this basis, we think that August CPI year-on-year growth between 3.3%~3.7%, take the number of digits, we forecast August CPI year-on-year growth of 3.5% or so, the increase will be more than July 3.3% again to create a new Year's record."　　"said Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center. He also said structural upward pressure, including seasonal increases in food prices, wage increases for workers, and price adjustment for resource products, would remain in place for a long time.　　At the same time does not exclude structural upward pressure in some period of the year highlighted, which makes the second half of the price rise and fall in the range are limited, the CPI will be generally in a moderate rise. The report also argues that while CPI may still be rising in the short term, inflationary pressures will gradually ease in the second half of the year, as demand declines due to slowing economic growth, a lessening of liquidity pressures after a pullback in currency and credit growth, and lower international commodity prices, leading to a fall in domestic PPI growth.　　As a result, the report predicts that the annual CPI gain is 2.5-3%, with a forecast of 3% per cent of the year's price targets expected to be achieved. (Stock market Weekly feeds)