Bank stress test results: House prices fall 30%

Real estate New Deal if the price falls, Bank mortgage asset quality will be affected?　　The latest round of commercial bank stress tests results give the answer-even if house prices fall by 30%, the non-performing rate of mortgages will not rise significantly. The bank said, "Hold on" in Thursday, Qian, Vice president of Bank of Communications, said in a performance briefing that the bank had conducted a stress test under the CBRC's requirements. The results showed that the real estate price fell 30%, the non-performing rate of development loans increased by 1.2%, and the personal mortgage non-performing rate increased by 0.9%. Qian said, because the bank of real estate loans accounted for relatively low, fully grasp the digestion and absorption of this part of the problem. "Of course, the impact is likely to be greater if prices fall more sharply or if there is systemic risk." "The above test result of the bank of CCB to deal with the bank said, the effect of the 30% falling house price on the non-performing loan of CCB" is roughly equal to the bank, may be slightly optimistic.　　Hong Qi, President of Minsheng Bank, said more optimistically that even if house prices fell by 40%, it would not affect the quality of the bank's assets. The report, issued by CICC yesterday, also gave the same estimate: House prices fell 30% per cent, and banks ' non-performing loans for property development and mortgages did not rise significantly.　　This, according to CICC analysts, is the result of the information they have learned from the banks, not their projections. The risk of a leveraged house purchase the head of the risk department of a joint-stock bank pointed out that the conclusion of the stress test is closely related to the bank loan portfolio and portfolio.　　Take mortgage loans as an example, test the impact of housing prices on the quality of mortgages, depends on the overall mortgage portfolio, the proportion of speculative or leveraged housing demand, the decline in housing demand for rigid loans has little impact. "The results of the various stress tests are at a relatively modest level and if the test conclusions are set up, it is entirely possible to withstand a 30% per cent drop in housing prices at the current level of profitability and availability of banks." Said the head of the risk department of the joint-stock bank.　　But he also said that the pressure test should pay close attention to the cost of interest rates, the increase in interest rates will lead to a relatively rapid increase in the proportion of home buyers income, mortgage loans and delinquency rate may rise, and then the bank's asset quality and profitability has a greater negative impact. A number of banking industry people in the interview with this newspaper, said that the mortgage is still a commercial loan portfolio of relatively high quality assets. According to a statistic of Societe Generale Securities, as of the end of 2009, the proportion of individual real estate mortgage loans in listed banks accounted for 16.36% of total loans.　　Previous rating companies have been so worried: after the reform of the domestic banking industry has not experienced a complete economic cycle, can really, as the respective expression of the risk of resistance, still need time to test.　　Qian that the real estate industry now and in the future will be a very important pillar of China's economy, although now the real estate market overheating and part of the bubble, but in the long term there is still prospects, so to maintain a certain real estate business ratio. "The fall in house prices is not aAn immediate process, there is little likelihood of a 30%~40%.　　"In the next 3-5 years, the rigid demand for urban housing in China remains strong," he said. According to the first financial Daily News