Banks are busy at the end of the year to prepare for next

-This edition of the author information Times reporter Chowa to the end of the year, the Bank of the reserve war staged again, the suction is also a variety of tricks, including the deposit to send points, deposit return point, improve the profitability of financial products. The move is mainly for commercial banks to meet the regulatory level of the 75% per-loan ratio of regulatory requirements, but also for next year's credit reserves. Bankers said banks would rush to lend ahead of policy regulation as the increase in reserve requirements and expectations of higher interest rates increased, making loans or a blowout next January.　　According to market forecasts, new loans next year will be around 7 trillion, a bit tighter than this year, but not too much tightening. Deposit-taking means a wide variety of past year-end bank funds will be more nervous, deposit pressure began to appear, this year is no exception, a large state-owned bankers told reporters that the end of deposit pressure is indeed very large, if according to the 75% ratio of savings and loan index, not only some small and medium-sized banks have exceeded the red line, and some large state-owned banks, even if not super,　　has been basically in place. In November, the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio 2 times in a row, freezing bank funds by about 700 billion yuan, which made banks unprepared. "If there is no deposit, the loan will naturally be less, and the interest income of the loan is still the main source of income." Some small banks can be held by ' buying deposits ', such as gifts, shopping cards, or even cash, which, of course, may be privately traded, and banks will be in trouble once they are checked.　　"These people told reporters that although the deposit gift is a regulatory red line, but the bank is also very helpless, in the case of tightening policy, it is difficult to survive without a bank." It is reported that many banks to save another important means is the sale of financial products. At present, many banks will finance products as the focus of sales, price war is increasingly fierce. "The so-called price war, is to improve wealth management products, the current wealth management products are more serious, if there is no difference, it is difficult to cause customer attention, can only rely on improving wealth management products to attract customers."　　said the person. Reporter found that the recent bank issues more intensive financial products, such as ICBC in November 25, 29th, 30th, the latest financial products issued continuously, the shortest period of 91 days, the annual return of 2.8%.　　December 2, a second issue of financial products, starting point 50,000, 51 days of the annual return of 2.6%, 112 days of the annual income of 2.8%; the second day of issue, starting 50,000, 30 days of income of 2.4%, 109 days of the annual income of 2.8%. Loan or blowout in January next year according to the above personage analysis, next January bank loan may appear blowout.　　First, at the start of the year, when banks concentrated on lending, credit was tight at the end of the decade, and some of the quotas could only wait until next year; second, the market is expected to shrink liquidity by raising reserve requirements and raising interest rates next year, before banks rush to make loans ahead of the policy. Data show that in the previous October, the total amount of credit in China has reached 6.9 trillion yuan, and the November market expected credit will be more than 500 billion yuan, DecemberThe amount of available can be stretched. As a result, the market expects the total credit volume this year to exceed the 7.5 trillion target.　　Standard Chartered analysts expect credit to hit 8 trillion trillion yuan this year. "This year 7.5 trillion of the credit line is almost full, banks have a lot of loans, the loan will be concentrated in January, in the credit crunch situation, it is impossible to drag."　　"The above state-owned big line related Personage says.　　There are expectations that bank pressure will still be greater next year. Next year, the bank will continue to hold more strength, because the central bank's monetary and credit policy will return to normal next year, and the market liquidity is still relatively well-off, hot money inflows, if prices remain high, the extent of monetary tightening will be very large, otherwise it is difficult to see the effect. Recently, central bank officials have repeatedly said that next year's monetary policy to the expected.　　December 3, the CPC Politburo meeting tone, to implement a positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, enhance the pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness of macro-control. Based on monetary policy shifts, the market is expected to take a variety of measures next year to curb inflation, Standard Chartered's latest report said that to change inflation expectations, the real interest rate will need to be raised to positive interest rate, is expected to raise interest rates 4 times next year, 25 points each time.　　At the same time, in response to the continued inflow of funds, the deposit reserve ratio will be raised 4~5 times, 50 basis points each time. And once the reserve requirement ratio rises again, bank funds will be more strained, limited by the ratio of deposit and loan ratios, and the pressure on banks to absorb deposits is not negligible.　　According to the bank's semi-annual report, small and medium banks have greater pressure on loan-to-deposit ratio, as at the end of June, investment, Societe Generale, Everbright, deep development of loan-to-deposit ratio of 74.07%, 73.76%, 74.39%, 73.88%, are close to 75% of the regulatory red Line.　　According to the news, in order to effectively control the scale of credit, the CBRC is brewing to meet the daily average ratio of loans to the standard requirements, instead of the month before the end of the loan ratio requirements, the CBRC will require commercial banks to report the daily average loan-to-deposit ratio data, but the news has not been confirmed by commercial banks　　Credit forecast for new loans next year about 7 trillion of Guangzhou Securities said in terms of credit size, whether from the bank's own lending potential or regulatory demands on the banking sector will spur the growth of credit scale from the rapid growth in the past two years to the normal level, so the size of new loans in 2011 is expected to be difficult to exceed the previous two years.　　Standard Chartered Bank estimates that the 2011 loan limit will be 60,000 ~ 7 trillion yuan, if the first half of the inflation rate breakthrough 5%~6%, credit guidance will be more use, increase control. Lianping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that at present, the enterprise capital demand is more vigorous, next year is "Twelve-Five" planning of the start of the year, if the money is too tight, so that there is a large gap between the demand for funds and supply, may lead to the break of corporate capital chain, so Next year's new loan size should be between 7 trillion and 7.4 trillion more appropriate. Next year's credit growth will fall to 15%, which will be below the historical average of 16%~17% level.　　Credit adjustment is expected to remain under pressure next year in the case of credit contraction, the market expects credit policy will still have pressure, especially next year is "Twelve-Five" planning start year, for speeding up the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries will have greater policy support. Under the influence of policy, developers will be more pressure next year, and the bank is still the main source of financing of real estate business, therefore, it is expected to have funds to the real estate, "or by changing the form of loan projects to the real estate business loans."　　"But it depends more on real estate policy," said a large state-owned bank. For SME loans, the banking industry revealed that the SME financing difficult objective problems remain, "some large banks do not want to do, but dare not to do, and large banks larger enterprises customers, in the case of limited credit, will give priority to ensure large enterprise loans." "Small and medium banks will have a greater breakthrough in SME lending compared to big banks."　　According to the head of Ping An bank headquarters said that next year will compress the size of large client loans, and the loan balance for small and medium-sized enterprises will double. Next report Chinese-style inflation is inevitable from the second half of this year, credit policy despite tightening, but the market is still strong inflation expectations. New York Bank fund manager Shu pointed out that the central bank's recent rise in reserve requirements, the November CPI, PPI and other economic data of high operation, so that monetary policy to curb inflation began to gradually tighten, changing market liquidity expectations, increase short-term volatility.　　But Chinese-style inflation is still inevitable, and the Fed's announcement of a second round of quantitative easing will largely trigger capital flows to emerging markets, with China facing higher asset price pressures. Li Kunyuan, an Australian Silver Essence configuration fund manager, said due to the tail factor, the first quarter of next year CPI may be again high, the basis of this year's driving, the next year should be the annual CPI should be high after the low trend, with the state to curb price measures, price increases are expected to slow down in the next two or three months, There will also be some easing in the market's expectations of inflation, which can be said to be the most intense in the storm. Shu points out that inflationary pressures will exist over a longer period of time. The use of administrative means can also be a preventive measure to adjust inflation expectations, but monetary policy is never the killer of inflation, economic efficiency is the ultimate solution to the root causes of inflation.