BDI a August-high global economic first-mover index warmer

Into the June, the world's economic leading indicators began to win "good luck." The Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI), which has been seen as the leading indicator of international trade yesterday, hit a 8-month high, rising 4.51% to 4,291 points. A series of economic leading indicators, represented by BDI, began to enter the rising channel.　　The Chinese factor may be playing a key role.　　National leading indicators have warmed up in addition to BDI, the world's PMI (purchasing Managers index), the service Industry index, and consumer confidence index and other economic indicators, such as to maintain the upward trend. PMI, which reflects the trend of real-world economic manufacturing, has warmed up globally. In May, the European PMI index began to move to the 50 "Bear Bull Line", with the eurozone May PMI rising from 41.1 in April to 44.　　U.S. factory orders increased by 0.7% in April, although slightly below the market's 0.9% forecast, the US Department of Commerce released yesterday showed a modest rebound. The service sector, which accounts for more than 70% of U.S. GDP, is warming. The May non-manufacturing index rose to 44 from 43.7 in April, according to the US Supply Management Association (ISM) yesterday.　　In addition, the UK's May service purchasing managers index was 51.7, a higher than expected 49.2. In addition, the US consumer confidence index rose from 40.8 in April to 54.9.　　At the same time, eurozone data show that the consumer confidence index in France, Germany and Italy has reached a new high of 12 months, 16 months and 27 months respectively. Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley China, told the Daily Economic news: "The rebound in these indicators is reflected in the global economic recovery, on the one hand, and the global abundance of liquidity on the other, and the resulting systemic risk of the financial system has been reduced." "He believes that this warmer trend will continue." "BDI is closely related to global GDP. As a leading indicator of global trade and economic growth, BDI has signalled a strong recovery. "It can be found that the recent rebound in indicators does not include employment." Unemployment is expected to expand further to 9.2% in May, with unemployment likely to reach 532,000, according to new U.S. employment forecasts.　　Wang Qing said unemployment was a lagging indicator and that its recovery tended to lag behind the real economy. Guotai chief economist Li Thunderbolt to the daily economic news reporter said: "The first indicator of recovery has a certain stage." He points out that the recovery cycle of the data will continue into 2010 years.　　"Then there will be a small dip in the global economy, but not too much volatility."　　The Chinese factor pulls high BDI? Some market analysts point out that BDI's recent surge has largely benefited from the "Chinese factor".　　China's large number of iron ore imports, led to the BDI warmer. "In April this year, there was a huge pile of iron ore in China's main ports," said Jing Ulrich, chairman of JPMorgan's China securities market.It appears that China's steel industry is producing a serious surplus. "But China's iron ore imports remain high for the third consecutive month." Iron ore imports 57 million tonnes in April, up 9.5% from last month, up 33% per cent year-on-year.　　China's imports amounted to 188.5 million tonnes in 1 to April, up 22.9% from a year earlier. Ms Ulrich believes that while the increase in iron ore imports is a long-term trend, such rapid growth is unsustainable.　　Imports of iron ore will begin to fall in recent months. Wang Qing believes that the "Chinese factor" is normal. "While it cannot be said that the Chinese economy will drive the global economy to start, China will indeed become one of the first economies to recover from the world." "China's import surge does not reflect a single show of China's economy, but an increasingly rich global manifestation of liquidity," Wang said. ”