Beijing Bank tests show affordable home prices down about 30%

The real estate control Policy's repeatedly attack makes the view of all walks of life to the bank real estate loan's ability to resist the risk. Reporters yesterday learned from the Beijing Banking Regulatory Bureau, as at the end of March, the Beijing Bank mortgage pressure test results have been released, is currently in the process of approval, or will soon be released.　　As has been revealed before, the test results are generally optimistic, the banks can withstand about 30% of the housing price decline. >> forecast Case house prices have gone up. The term "stress testing" has long been known, but few concrete forms can be uttered. Min, general manager of the risk management Department of Societe Generale, said that in fact, the CBRC deployed a pressure test involving two cases, one in the case of lower prices respectively 10%, 20%, 30%, the other is in the interest rate increase of 27, 54, 108 basis points,　　The influence of bank development loan and individual loan bad rate respectively. These two situations can be set up to three scenarios, in three scenarios, respectively, commercial bank personal housing loans, development loans, land reserve loans and real estate upstream and downstream loan quality of migration.　　Specifically divided into, mild pressure environment, that is, the rate of floating 27 basis points, house prices fell 10%; moderate pressure environment, that is, interest rates rose 54 basis points, house prices fell 20%; heavy pressure environment, interest rate jumped 108 basis, house price fell 30%. In the judgment of the result, the Commercial Bank stress test adopts the "expert judgment" method, the basic step is to set the pressure situation, analyze the borrower's cash flow, the first repayment source influence degree when the financial cost changes, and analyze the loan principal and interest situation of the mortgage realizable income;　　To judge the result of the classification of grade five. For real estate development loans, regulators have asked to predict the impact of falling real estate prices and a rise in benchmark interest rates on the solvency of companies.　　The CBRC asked the bank to analyse the decline in real estate prices and the full coverage of loan exposures. >> Stress test Results List Bank stress Test Status The pressure on the loan will be divided into three kinds of mild, moderate and severe. Among them, housing prices fell by 10%, with benchmark interest rates up 27 basis points, and median prices fell 20% per cent, with benchmark interest rates up 54 basis points, with prices down 30% per cent and benchmark interest rates up 108 basis points.　　Even under severe pressure, the non-performing rate of real estate loans will only rise by 1.2%, and the provision will increase by billions of.　　Bank of communications house prices fell 30%, development loan non-performing rate increased by 1.2%, personal mortgage non-performing rate increased by 0.9%.　　Construction Bank If house prices fall by 30%, the percentage of the impact on the bank's non-performing loans is roughly the same as that of the bank, even slightly more optimistic. ICBC's real estate loans, including real estate development loans, land reserve loans and personal housing mortgage loans, are of good quality and have a bad rate of only 0.72%. which，The non-performing rate of public loans is 0.82%, and the non-performing rate of personal housing mortgage loan is 0.58%.　　Based on the actual situation of the mortgage, the housing pressure test, the results of stress testing is reassuring.　　Industrial Bank If house prices fell 10%, real estate development loan non-performing rate will likely rise by 0.11%, non-performing rate of loans may rise by 0.07%; If house prices fall by 30%, the non-performing rate on public real estate loans increases by 0.99%, and the non-performing rate rises to no more than 0.3%.　　A 40% fall in housing prices has little impact on asset quality.　　Huaxia Bank If house prices fall by 10%, the non-performing rate of real estate loans will rise 0.46%; If house prices fall by 20%, up 1.73%, if house prices fall by 30%, up 3.25%.　　The 20% decline in the price of Everbright Bank has little impact on asset quality. (Note: The above information is based on the public position of the senior executives organized by the statement of the >> specific cases based on experience value to determine the security cordon a banker in the case of personal housing loan test, the commercial bank needs to be based on the housing revaluation Price, the borrower and the family income expenditure situation and other parameters value, By the branch according to the local property market changes, the borrower behavior characteristics and other specific factors to calculate.　　To consider the effect of the rising loan interest rate on the average monthly repayment amount of borrowers under three different pressure scenarios, to recalculate the solvency of the stock borrower in the presence of pressure, to determine the safety cordon according to the experience value, and to have the default risk of the loan exceeding the security line. Given that falling property prices will have an impact on borrowers ' willingness to repay, the bank also needs to reassess the value of the property, based on the initial assessment price of the property, to calculate the latest property prices, combined with the ability to cash in, to consider the impact of falling house prices on the rate of loans under three pressure changes,　　Whether the income of the mortgaged property can cover the loan principal and interest in full. >> experts interpret the risk of home loans mainly look at the income Eastern Securities and banking industry analyst Wang Yuefei said that the bank mortgage risk is mainly to look at personal income. Because personal income is the first source of repayment, housing is only collateral.　　Wang Yuefei pointed out that the risk of developing loans is slightly higher, in the economic downturn, the non-performing rate of such loans will rise more, but overall, the risk of housing loans controllable. Falling 30% is not a regulatory target. Yinjian, deputy researcher of the Research Institute of Structural Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the test results were different, except for the proportion of mortgage loans, a very important factor is the difference in bank lending time. The housing boom that was issued in 2009 will certainly have an impact on the stress test. The ability to withstand a decline in the price of a commercial bank is 30%, equivalent to a government-controlled target of falling house prices by 30%.　　Regulators do not take commercial banks as their sole consideration, and other factors such as real estate developers and consumer purchasing power are considered to be regulatory considerations. Yinjian tableShows that there are four factors affecting house prices, including local "land finance", the phenomenon of developers hoarding land, investment guest property speculation and the demand for rigid housing. (newspaper reporter Gaochenwu Ma Wenting)