Beijing Housing One-fifth is a bubble, Cass

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Housing Green Paper forecast next year house prices after the news this morning, by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Financial Research Institute and Real Estate Economics research Office released the first housing Green Paper, "China's Housing Development Report (2009-2010)."　　The Green Paper predicts that next year's housing price trend will be first yang and then suppress. Next year house prices first after the experts believe that the fourth quarter of this year, the housing market may have a drop in sales and price adjustment of a small process.　　Housing sales are likely to slow down in the first quarter of next year, the price is basically stable; second-quarter inflation expectations or the government may introduce new policies, the impact of a rebound in sales, price increases and development investment is more likely to rise, the third to fourth quarter price and sales may be stable or decline, development investment rose or remained stable. 1/5 of Beijing's housing prices are bubble-high prices, experts say the property market is hidden bubble risk, on the one hand, because of the long-term high domestic savings rate, capital abundant, and property become a few investment options, a large number of funds into the property market, the formation of false demand, pushing up prices, a serious housing bubble.　　On the other hand, the trade surplus grew too fast, leading to a rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves, international hot money hit the Chinese property market, the formation of false demand, fuelled the real estate bubble. The Green Paper estimates the housing bubble index in 35 cities nationwide, and the results show that Beijing's housing bubble exceeds those in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with real prices up 1/4 of the benchmark price. The price bubble index is equal to the actual price divided by the benchmark price, the average price per square metre of Beijing's January-August this year is 12205 yuan, and the benchmark calculated by the evaluation is 9640 yuan, the bubble index is 1.266, the actual price is higher than the benchmark price 26%.　　By this calculation, this part of the "bubble" accounted for about one-fifth of the current price. Don't snap up a house for inflation expectations the young people who buy houses now tend to spend two generations or even three generations of money, and the newly married families are concentrating all the financial resources of the two families, which does not reflect the real reasonable purchasing power of the market. Statistics show that in the survey of the 35 cities, Beijing People's housing ability to pay the lowest, the number of residents to pay a monthly loan is far higher than the experts believe that the proportion of reasonable family payments. Experts believe that monthly mortgage payments should not exceed 25% of household income. A reasonable housing capacity index of 1, Beijing residents of the housing payment index of 2008 only 0.34.