Big City perspective: deepening the medium-term adjustment of Hong Kong stocks

First Shanghai securities market strategist Ye Shangzhi June 23. In Europe and the United States and the decline of the stock market, the expansion of Hong Kong equities to adjust the trend, the Hang Seng index fell through the 17,600-point level of medium and short term support, we believe that Hong Kong stocks from March launched the medium-term wave of the possibility of a change, the market has the opportunity to 　　At present, the European and American countries have implemented a six-month quantitative easing monetary policy, there seems to be a chance of inflection, and the national government and central Bank have continued to test their exports to the market in order to control the issuance of debt, causing the market to worry about the gradual exit of the national government and worrying about the uncertainties in the process of economic recovery. In Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index, which was the target of internal silver stocks, fell in a rift, opening almost 500 points and losing 17,600 points. Although the decline in the plate has not been further expanded, but the enthusiasm of the bottom of the funds is not small, the elasticity of the plate is relatively weak. The Hang Seng index closed at 17,538 points, falling 521 points throughout the day, with a turnover of more than 66.2 billion yuan. Capital flow is still in the downward trend, indicating that the support of the disk has not been enhanced. On the other hand, there are signs of rising short positions, yesterday recorded a 4.91 billion-yuan short selling amount, accounting for the total volume of the city's proportion reached 7.4%, looming 10% of the cordon. And recently became the main support of the Bank of the stock, because the stock price is still standing in a relatively high, in turn, the goal of short pursuit. ICBC (1398), Merchants Bank (3968) and BOC (3988) recorded a total of 540 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 330 million yuan, respectively, accounting for the amount of their turnover 21.2%, 36.9% and 13.8%. 　　In the protection of the main force under the background, I believe that the elasticity of the market will constitute a further negative impact. Currently, the Hang Seng index has broken 17,600 point level of key support position, the medium-term adjustment weakness has deepened. In fact, the Hang Seng index has slipped through the top 17,686 points of the previous wave (the middle of the May 11 high), and has fallen from the beginning of the March low point extension of the medium-term rise rail support, we believe that Hong Kong stock over three months of the medium-term rise and fall of the cycle has changed, into the The Hang Seng Index, which is 11,345 points from the March 9 lows, was pushed back to the June 12 high of 19,162, with a cumulative increase of 7,817 points, and the Hang Seng index could be lowered to 16,176 if the adjustment was calculated at 0.382 times times the gold ratio. Therefore, Hong Kong stocks in the current level of the value Bo rate is not large, coupled with the flow of funds are still declining trend, in the background of not strong elasticity, short-term copy of the bottom Bo rebound will have considerable difficulty, the trader should pay more attention to risk.