Britain's economic chill is hard to eliminate

In emerging markets such as Asia, the pace of economic recovery, the "winter" after the "early shoots", the British economy is still in the "cold winter", but the "melting ice" is not far away.　　Britain's Bank of England, 13th, released its quarterly Inflation Report, which portrayed the British economy as a bleak winter scene, making people sigh at when the long winter was over and Britons who were not accustomed to tightening their belts were looking forward to a "well-off" life. The Bank of England, which was forced to implement an unprecedented "quantitative easing" monetary policy, expects the economy to shrink by 4.5% and 4.2% per cent in the two and three quarters of the year, if the current benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 0.5%, much higher than originally expected.　　By comparison, the UK Treasury is optimistic about the UK economy, predicting a contraction of 3.5% this year and a 1.25% increase next year. This is an economic crisis that is directly caused by the financial crisis, which is no doubt more serious than the crises that have been suffered in the past decades. For the UK economy, which relies heavily on the financial services sector, it is in the depths of the crisis, and it is naturally seen as a developed economy with the slowest recovery. In theory, sterling devaluation is good for British exports, and the British government does want exports to pull up the national economy, but it will require people to buy British goods and services.　　How can the United States and the European Union, the UK's largest trading partner, be able to take care of Britain now that they are in a state of concern? After the economic crisis, consumer spending usually bounced back sharply as the economy recovered, but the crisis was different.　　The reason is clear that people are busy rebuilding their balance sheets, paying their debts, and that it will become difficult to live on loan, and that distressed banks will lend more prudently. However, there are still some "buds" in the UK economy, such as house prices, purchasing managers ' indices and so on. As a result of these "buds", some economists worry that the Bank of England will then raise the benchmark interest rate. However, in releasing the inflation Report, the Bank of England made it clear that the central bank would keep interest rates at a very low level during 2009 and 2010.　　The reason is clear: the pace of recovery in the UK economy will be slow, and the central bank's low interest rates and the support of "quantitative easing" monetary policy are still needed. "We have good reason to assume that the UK economy will recover next year, but we have every reason to question whether the recovery will continue," Mervyn, Governor of the Bank of England, said at a press conference on the inflation Report. According to the financial balance sheet, the existence of various risks has led to a slow pace of recovery in the UK economy. "The economy is one thing to stop shrinking, and a weak recovery is another matter, not to mention that the British economy has not come out of the" winter "bottoming out. Li Jings, global chief economist at Standard Chartered, is also not optimistic about the UK economy, and he expects the UK economy toAutumn is expected to hit the bottom, even if the cessation of contraction, the number of unemployed will continue to rise until the end of next year.　　No wonder, Mervyn bluntly: "Britain will be dominated by a crisis recovery for the next ten years." Look back on the last few economic crises, the crisis in the early 90, when Britain took 14 quarters to restore its economy to pre-crisis levels; In the early 80, the UK struggled for 17 quarters to recover.　　So, in the midst of this financial crisis, Britain will have to struggle for a few more years, at least 3 years to return. At the same time, the Bank of England is worried about the rapid decline in inflation rates. Even if it keeps its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, the CPI could fall to 0.5% in the fourth quarter of this year, well below the government's 2% target level. It predicts that it will take about two years for the UK CPI to rebound to that target level. For Mervyn, no matter whether the CPI is above or below the target level, he has to write an open letter to the Chancellor to explain why.