Brokerage: Slowdown slows stock market shocks

-China Securities Research Center Zhang Taixin Most of the agencies believe that the August PMI rally was mainly due to seasonal factors. Compared with previous years, the PMI rebound in August was only better than 2008, indicating that the economy is still in the process of decline, but the decline has stabilized.　　With the economic downturn and inflationary expectations, the stock market will maintain a pattern of adjustment. Seasonal factors push up PMI guotai that the elimination of seasonal factors after August PMI actually fell. From the point of view of the breakdown, the inventory went into the second phase in July, and August continued to accelerate. Among them, finished goods inventory fell 3%, and raw material inventory slipped slightly slower.　　The August Order index and the purchase price index both rebounded, unexpectedly, the sub-industry looks mainly is the ferrous metal industry order, the purchase price rises greatly, the future sustainability needs further observation. According to the PMI data can classify all industries, order stability, finished goods inventory has accelerated the decline of the industry prospects, such as pharmaceuticals, non-metallic manufacturing, chemical and other industries; food, beverage inventory decline slower, but the order index is very high.　　In addition, the textile and other orders decline, inventory continued upward industry need to be cautious. Galaxy Securities believes that different industries inventory differentiation is the early stage of the national industrial structure adjustment effect appears, because of the two high, surplus industry constraints, steel, coal and other inventory decline is more obvious, the excess capacity of digestion is underway, and the improvement of demand accelerated the electronics, communications industry to inventory.　　Overall, the level of economic activity is not as bad as it might be.　　In addition, it is expected that the September PMI index will be 53%, mainly due to seasonal increases, and that the economy is still in the process of accelerating the dip. Stock market to maintain volatility some institutions believe that PMI will have a direct impact on industrial value added, but for the industry as a whole, there are three major uncertainties in the coming months: September or October, as the supply of the housing market increases, housing prices are likely to adjust and real estate investment may slow　　, the world economy, after the first half of the replenishment of the inventory, again encounter a new round of growth uncertainty, China's export growth is under great pressure; In addition, from the August PMI production index, the rise in raw material prices will be directly driven by the rise in non-food prices.　　If inflation stays high, it will depress stock market movements. Changjiang Securities believes that, in view of the macroeconomic growth faced with many uncertainties and macro-policy regulation of price targets, the future stock market will continue to maintain the weak shocks downward pattern, in the second stage of control objectives have not yet reached, the trend of opportunity is difficult to show. At this stage, the industry recommended the allocation of passenger cars, home appliances, chemicals, textile and light industries, as well as to inventory of the leading steel, chemical industry;