Bullish macroeconomic steel price bottomed rebound

Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry to strictly tighten production capacity too fast growth Ministry of an urgent notice, the iron and steel industries placed in the forefront of public opinion.　　April 24, the Ministry of Industry issued the "to curb the rapid increase in steel production of the Emergency Bulletin" (hereinafter referred to as "Bulletin"), require local governments to cooperate with the implementation of the elimination of obsolete iron, steel, steel rolling production line to stop production, and with local commercial banks to reduce or stop lending to backward steel companies and blind expansion of steel enterprises.　　May 3 and 4th, the NDRC issued a series of two documents, announced that will increase the steel industry backward production capacity of the elimination of strength. Citic Securities researcher Zhou Xizhan May 14 in an interview with the Huaxia Times, said: "Oversupply is exaggerated, compared with the past overload, the current capacity is normal level." "The so-called excess is just structural excess," said Sun Yong, analyst at the Galactic Securities and steel industry.　　"For the limit order, all parties said that this is conducive to state-owned enterprises policy, private enterprises is the object of its restrictions." Limiting the limit to who to protect the steel industry overcapacity is the reason for the introduction of production restrictions. "2009 production needs to maintain a balance of supply and demand with only 4.7 billion tonnes of output, which is about 25% to 30% more than the actual demand for domestic consumption and exports," according to the Ministry of Information. In addition, under normal circumstances, China's one-month import demand for iron ore is about 30 million tonnes, but in April 57 million tonnes of imports exceeded normal demand by nearly one times.　　CISA believes iron ore and steel markets are now "the illusion of prosperity". Behind the "illusion of Prosperity", who in the loss who is benefiting? According to the Ministry of Industry data, January-February, the focus of large and medium-sized steel enterprises losses accumulated 15.1 billion yuan, for 5 consecutive months since last October, losses, more than 5 million tons of corporate losses face up to 50%.　　Compared with the loss of large steel mills, small steel mills are not only booming, but also increasing production. Although the "circular" that the large and medium-sized steel enterprises to take the lead in the production of the production capacity of the cut-off, but the "limited order mainly for private enterprises."　　Sun Yong that. Shanxi Securities and steel analyst Liu Junqing also told reporters: "For large steel listed companies, this is a good news, to increase the backward capacity elimination efforts, the collapse of a group of small and medium-sized enterprises, the indirect expansion of the market share of large companies." "But she also said:" The production of construction steel for small and medium-sized manufacturers also included in the scope of the fight, and market supply and demand will be contradictory. "This view is" my steel Net "consulting director Xu Xiangchun, he said:" The board should not play in the small and medium-sized enterprises, the current long material, construction steel market demand is relatively strong, this part of the product corresponding to the manufacturer is small and medium-sized steel mills. " "The rational rebound in steel prices before, including the Bank of China's global financial market, senior analyst Tan Yaling, and many other professionals in the interview with this newspaper that to stimulate domestic consumption of enterprise inventory, must be done with the help of price lever." Only if the price rises, the enterprise has the profit, then can enlarge the production, enlargeInvestment。 The reason is that the economy faces a deflationary risk in the first quarter.　　So how has the steel price risen to the peril of the development of the steel industry? It is reported that since the November 13 hot-rolled plate prices fell to 2800 yuan, after 2 months of market price rebound, prices rose nearly thousand yuan, after the production capacity release, inventory increase, the market price again into a volatile downward trend. Steel prices have risen sharply again since April.　　At the beginning of May, the domestic steel price index reached 148.51 points, rising 4.36% from the end of March. Zhou Xizhan said: "Downstream demand than last year, the extent of foreign production and iron ore and coal prices fell sharply after stabilisation, is the cause of domestic steel stabilisation."　　He said that under the investment pull, the automobile, the home appliance, the electromechanical and the real estate's walk has increased the steel demand, also promoted the steel price rise. The attitude adjustment of the distributor is also a reason for the stability of steel price. "In the face of the grim steel market situation, put forward by flurried price drop inventory, aggravate market price decline, adjust to control purchase, stabilize market price, use rigid consumption to reduce inventory risk prevention ideas."　　"Mazhongpu, director of China Business Network Huarui Market Research Center, said. "The steel industry after a year of adjustment, the adverse factors have all been digested by the market, the capital market in the steel plate reaction is supporting." This is the rational rebound in steel prices.　　"Zhou Xizhan said. To confirm the macroeconomic expectations after this round of price increases, steel price in the future trend of what?　　Analysts said that based on the macroeconomic situation, the steel market is also full of confidence. In the country to increase investment-driven economic policy support, the first quarter, the whole society fixed assets Investment 2.8129 trillion yuan, an increase of 28.8% year-on-year, faster than the same period of 4.2%. Among them, the urban fixed assets investment 2.3562 trillion yuan, growth 28.6% (March growth 30.3%), accelerate 2.7%.　　In fact, Mazhongpu said, the steel industry is also a basic reflection of macroeconomic trends. In April, China's manufacturing PMI index was 53.5%, up 1.1% from last month, the PMI index rebounded for the 5th consecutive month, according to the latest figures.　　At the same time, economic data show that with the implementation of a series of economic stimulus packages around the world, the worst of the world economy is over, and the global economy is in a recovery period, which will have a strong support for the securities market. Although the production restriction order is the implementation of industrial policy and economic revitalization plan, but in the beginning of the economic recovery, in this regard, Xu Xiangchun that small and medium-sized steel mills related to local employment, tax, etc.　　Once the investment has been fully activated, the consequence of the limited supply is that the steel industry has once again entered the situation.　　The reporter observes the bank limits the loan to hit small and medium-sized steel enterprise seven inches precisely is to the bank credit limit, has hit the medium and Small-sized Steel Enterprise's seven inches. Sun Yong to this reporter said: "Steel limited to the main target will be small enterprises." In the third quarter of last year, most of the small business shutdown, the fourth quarter inThe central stimulus package quickly returned to production, creating a rapid expansion of the current capacity. "In January-February this year, the national steel industry from the same period last year profit of 25.5 billion yuan to a loss of 770 million yuan, the March losses continue to expand." Sun Yong said: "General losses in the first quarter, small and medium-sized enterprises to expand production capacity, mainly from the bank's financial support, if the steel industry to limit the loans, it is cut off the lifeblood of these steel mills." "In the first quarter of this year, the nation's new credit was close to 5 trillion, and 3 months used the central bank's planned new lending target for the whole year."　　Analysts say the bulk of the day's credit flows into areas such as infrastructure and steel, which are directly related to 4 trillion of investment. However, reporters from Baosteel, Angang and other large steel companies in a quarterly report found that short-term borrowing and long-term lending compared to the end of the year significantly reduced. Baosteel's short-term borrowing dropped from 24.1 billion to 21.46 billion, while long-term borrowing dropped from 14.2 billion to 10.31 billion.　　Angang's short-term borrowing dropped from 7.57 billion to 7.45 billion, while long-term borrowing dropped from 1.75 billion to 1.69 billion. In contrast, the first quarter of the steel plate loans from 2.89 billion to 3.92 billion yuan. In the first quarter, the net profit of Benxi steel sheet decreased 89.1%.　　China's Iron and Steel Association has said that the loosening of money, resulting in some steel mills more losses and more expansion. So there was a ministry urging banks to restrict lending.　　Sun Yong that the ministry's documents represent government interests and that banks will be cautious about lending to steel companies. Xu Xiangchun said: "The iron and Steel limited by the executive order to release the place, but the bank can not snub the entire steel industry, bank loans may end up with the relevant ministries to provide a list of restrictions for reference, in different enterprises have maintained pressure." "It is said that June, the central bank, the CBRC, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments of the" continued implementation of the holding of the financing policy ", will be the backward capacity of the financing act to take restrictive measures. (Xia Huawang)