Bullish on long-term investment value of a-share

Jin Bin, deputy director of the research Department of Silver China Fund, Yinhua Advantage Enterprise fund manager. He has been engaged in industry research work in Guotai.　　August 2004 joined the Silver China Fund, successive industry researcher, fund manager assistant, research supervisor and so on. "The two-quarter trend in domestic capital markets is broadly in line with our expectations. The first half of the market to valuation uplift, the second half will transition to performance-driven.　　"In the 2009 China letter Taurus Strategy national tour Tianjin station speech," Silver Wah Fund Management Co., Ltd., deputy director of research, Yinhua Advantage Enterprise Mixed fund manager Jin Bin said that the current market valuation is still in a reasonable valuation range, optimistic about its long-term investment value. The turning point of global economic recovery Jin Bin that the global economy is now at a turning point in the recovery from recession, and that most economies are expected to enter the economy's upward trajectory for the next two years. He said U.S. residents need to repair their balance sheets for a long time, and the savings rate is rising and stabilizing at levels higher than before the financial crisis, which will lead to a weak positive growth in the US economy in 2010.　　But because the economic structure problem is relatively small, the domestic demand growth space is big, the BRIC countries represent some emerging market countries ' economic performance will be relatively excellent. "China's economy in 09," The possibility of a huge. Jin Bin pointed out that from the current situation, the expected real estate investment will be launched in the second half, to replace the government infrastructure construction to stimulate economic growth.　　At the same time, the sharp decline in exports will gradually be reversed as a result of a modest recovery in the external economy. In Jin Bin's view, there is little chance of a second dive in China's economy next year. In his view, electricity generation is expected to "positive" in the second half, real estate new start also is expected to rise. Then, if exports shrink by a year, the market's confidence in the economy will be firmer.　　In addition, because food in the CPI is relatively high, in the food harvest, the Government attaches importance to pork prices, the background, food prices will be difficult in the next period of rapid higher, the CPI measurement of the possibility of high inflation is very small. The market still has an upward momentum for liquidity issues, Jin Bin that there are two new forces can contribute to the second half of the share market liquidity: first, the residents of savings deposits, the recent enthusiasm for fund subscriptions heating up, while the decline in household savings deposits, reflecting the savings funds have begun to enter the stock market; There have been signs of hot money flowing into China this March, and this trend has continued to widen in May. "It is expected that the revaluation of the renminbi will rise again later this year, when it is likely to face a new round of hot money inflows, the A-share market to gain further upward momentum." Jin Bin said that with the recovery of terminal demand, the second half will enter the stage of PPI growth, corporate profits appear significantly better. "The market is expected to raise its earnings forecasts for 2009 and 2010 of listed companies," the report said. As profitability rises, the overall valuation level is further reduced, and the market continues to drive upward. "In the industry, Jin Bin bullish on investment opportunities in the banking and real estate sectors. He pointed out that the trend towards a better macroeconomicThe gradual clarity will reassure investors about the quality of bank assets, while bank spreads have bottomed out in the two quarter and will gradually expand in the future. And for the real estate market, the current level of land inventory has been significantly reduced, the real estate developers began a new land, new projects will soon start to grow, so the real estate industry will provide better investment opportunities in the second half.