Cai: Singularity near the future of the world and entrepreneurship full of imagination

October 8, the first day after the National Day holiday, by the Angel will host, entrepreneurial State, 3W Innovation Media, 3W Seed Fund, the 3W incubator co-organised by the "Angel will Shenzhen entrepreneur Exchange" in Shenzhen 3W coffee. Angel Council Chairman, the founding partner of the Foundation, New Oriental co-founder Xiaoping, the Angel will be the director of the source of investment chairman Yang Xiangyang, Germany and express investment chairman Zeng Liqing, Huaxing Capital CEO Baofan, the company chairman Cai, today Investment chairman, robust founder Hebo, Qing Ke Group chairman Gavin, such as gathering Shenzhen 3W coffee, and the presence of the entrepreneur had a dry full exchange. Angel in March 2011 by the domestic famous angel investors launched to promote the healthy development of China's angel investment, the establishment of a credible industry benchmark, to help embrace the pursuit of dream entrepreneurs, and actively exchange investment experience, participate in social activities, share a happy life. Conference, Cai delivered a speech, combined with entrepreneurial opportunities to share about the future study of the book "singularity near" read after the sentiment. Dry refining: The "singularity near" is the core idea of the 2045 when the computer beyond the theory. One of the best-known predictions by Ray Kurzweil, author Rey Kuzwer, was a robot thought written in 1990, predicting that computers would defeat humans in chess for 1998 years. His theory seems incredible at first, but if combined with what is now found in society, you will find that it is likely to achieve a probability of 80%. • The overall development of mankind, in fact, around two major axes, one is communication, information development, communication development; The second is energy. From the most primitive face-to-face communication, to the back through the carriage, the invention of the telephone and other aspects, because the continuous development of information, let people's energy constantly improve. • Suppose that 2045 years when the computer goes beyond the theoretical realization, you will find that some of the things that are being done are meaningless, and we may all be half human and half machines No longer need clothes, cars, houses, just a place to recharge. The 3D technology of the future will basically be able to change the organs and limbs of human pathological changes, even can grow body not old. But at that time, it's not about starting a business or making money. Because you may be a steel plate, but the more rich people may be loaded with titanium alloy; You might be able to put a plug in every day, but a rich person may not plug in for 10 years. • Entrepreneurship must be the first direction, the second is the implementation level. The direction of the right also does not mean that the achievement will be very big, also need the geographical and human factors. From the PC Internet to the mobile internet to bring us a lot of changes, our way of communication from chat to QQ, and then microblogging, video, games, and so on, the third stage is e-commerce trading things. But there will be big changes in more traditional industries in the future. • Today's social circulation, do not need to go to Beida, Harvard to find the most cattle teachers can get the best answer, you can go to Baidu, Google, micro-letter can be obtained, and you ask that teacher he may use his 50 years of experience to answer you, there is a limit. In the past, most of our success depended on your classmate relationship and colleague relationship. As social networking develops, social relationships have disrupted your relationship and injected it back into the circle. Therefore, the trading industry must be a great change. The future of medicine is not necessarily by medicine, or by injection surgery, really is to enter a replacement stage. If it is going in this direction, the world will become interesting, do not worry about the money is made away by bat, the future space will be very big. The following is a live record: Cai: In advance, and Zeng Liqing We two did not say well beforehand, invariably to talk about the "singularity near" this book. Because Yang Xiangyang told me to come to share something with you, because I basically in some places to my entrepreneurial experience and entrepreneurial thinking more than finished, and then repeat not much meaning. Better then they talked about the future and what the bubble would be like, so I think we should be more open-minded and think about what will happen in the next 20 or 30 years. If you could think about it ten years ago that bat could be today, we wouldn't have to start a business, and then we'd have more money to buy their stock. Today also send a sigh of emotion, today did not expect Shenzhen 3W Café will come to so many people, just I was thinking, because standing in the back of speech is relatively disadvantage, because some of the previous ideas they will finish, you can not be like them. Just now, I found that our Chairman Xiaoping, as well as after the bread who said, and Zeng Liqing said, to me, there is a proportion of the belly, because their belly is relatively large, to Li to my belly is relatively small, what does this mean? Is that your money is basically proportional to your belly. Unless the internet age, Ma Yun These you will find that the smaller the belly the future value will be even greater. Of course, the sketch or Li, they will soon be challenged, so I believe they will be thinner than me in the future. The core idea of "singularity near" is the 2045-year computer transcendence theory. The next sentence of the phrase once said that our traditional theory of the 2045 will no longer exist. I was amazed when I was in touch with this book three years ago, but if you look at the book and combine what is now socially discovered, you will find that it is probably about 80% probability. The author of this book is a scientist, biologist, thinker, philosopher, you want to name him any home can. One of his best-known predictions was a robot thought written in 1990, predicting that chess would defeat humans in the 1998 computer. So he's basically different from the rest of the scientists, and the other scientists are basically talking like bragging, and he's going to count to a certain point. The second node, he started a number of companies, these companies are more than 100 million dollars to sell, so he is also a successful entrepreneur. He also founded a starting school, then he in 2012, and almost two years ago, Google incorporated him, he entered Google, became Google NowEngineering Director. Google has two good companies, one is the X laboratory, but also for the development of fantasy companies. The other is the engineering department, and the Engineering department is concerned with biological and robotics companies. So we can see the development of this trajectory, why would he mention it? We know that the overall development of mankind, in fact, around two major axes, one is communication, information development communication. The second is energy. Just as Li mentioned, we from the most primitive face-to-face communication, to the back we will develop through the carriage, and then invented to the telephone and other aspects, because the continuous development of information, let people's energy constantly improve. Why are we so smart today? In fact, because we read textbooks, those books are the wisdom of the predecessors, we have integrated it into the experience. Because before the message is inconvenient, so a person in their lifetime you may have to read to 30 years old, but into the internet age, this thing it is accelerating, allowing you to faster access to some information, can accelerate the response of your brain, this energy will form your acceleration. What would happen if we assumed 2045 years of computer transcendence? You will find that some of the things that are being done are meaningless, do we need a car? Maybe we don't need a car. Do we need the traffic? If all that time is half man and half machine, you may not want clothes, you may be a chameleon. Do you need a house? Because you're probably half a man and a half machine, you don't need a room, you just need a place to recharge. Turning back, what is the so-called Half man and half machine? In fact, we are here today, I estimated that 90% of these, such as your teeth broken, you will install a false teeth, in fact, you are half a man and a half machine. Of course, you can say that there are fewer teeth. We saw a blade fighter in South Africa, he broke his two feet, so he wore two prosthetic limbs, and at the 2012 London Olympics there was a dispute that he would not attend because he had been in the Paralympic Games, so that he would have a controversy about the Olympics because he had broken both feet. So in the future, my two hands are broken. Am I a normal person? When we accepted the 2012-year blade to the London Olympics, we also accepted a half man and a half machine. In the future, our 3D technology will basically replace your bladder and kidneys. The reason why people get sick is because you have lesions in the organs of the body, the future can be 3D printed out the corresponding organs you do not change it? South Africa's blade fighter mounted two feet, it is by the strength of the thigh to swing. But now the world's technology can reach your two feet together. There is a 60-year-old old woman in the United States. She had changed her limbs to steel because she was rich, but she was able to control her limbs with her brain, though not very accurate. But the preparation is that the cost is too expensive, if the completion of the words may cost 10 million of dollars. There is also a Russian millionaire who is prepared to spend 300 million dollars at Cambridge University to build aLab, ready to put a system into his brain. We're going to have to put this stuff up for 10 million dollars. But have you ever thought that it would take us 100 million dollars to make a phone like the iphone 30 years ago, but we could have done it by just thousands of yuan today. Just said the Russian millionaire spent hundreds of millions of dollars to complete the system, may be 20 years after 3,000 dollars can be done, so this is very predictable. Then everyone said that at that time may not have to start a business, also need not make money, because at that time everyone is immortal, actually still want to make money, why? Because you may be a steel plate, but the more rich people he may be a titanium alloy, you may have to put a daily plug, but the rich people may not plug in 10 years. So we still have to make money. So we're going to go back to what we should have done in the last ten years, and when we look back on the Internet in 2000, how can you imagine what a great imagination would be like today's Internet? Basically I do not think that, 2000 I entered the Internet, I was the dream I earn a 20 million I can retire, did not think today I found 20 million is a house just. So we start a business in the first direction must be right, the first direction is not how much you have achieved, but your direction to the problem. The number of people who entered the internet industry in the 2000 was largely successful, such as IPOs, where small achievements could make millions of. So the first direction is to be correct, the second is the implementation level. That can be said that the big, of course, also need the geographical and human factors. If we all believe that this thing will come, then the next ten years may be around us a lot of things are very good entrepreneurial opportunities. So I think we don't have to worry about PC Internet, mobile Internet, because you said the mobile internet ten years ago may be very new, but today is not much significance, because the mobile internet has become a standard for everyone. What is the change from PC Internet to mobile Internet? The first is our way of communication, from QQ to chatting, from the network to our microblog, from video, games and so on. The third stage is our e-commerce, trading things. But this change is starting to happen at home, and more traditional industries will change dramatically in the future. This two years is the Jin millet, in fact it is a traditional field to transform, Millet is not finished a full mobile internet, it is a combination of hardware and the original PC Internet and mobile Internet integration, but it is subversive of traditional industries. Like banks, why can't banks change? For example, we are listed to the U.S. IPO, investment bank to take 7%, why to give the bank 7%, why can't we sell our own stocks? Ten years ago, the stock Exchange was open at the most central place, and today they are finished, and now only a woman selling vegetables, Grandma will trade on the stock exchange. and silverLine now still desperately open dot, you say reasonable? The first is that the expensive store rents, second and so expensive staff, why can not change it. What is the biggest purpose of our reading? There are undoubtedly three kinds. First, we go to school to read, the school has the best library. Second, the school has a good teacher, we do not understand what she can help us answer. Third, interpersonal relationship, in fact, this is our university and study after the biggest goal. I remember when I was little, it was impossible to find a dream of red mansions in our village because there were very few books at that time. So you're going to school, school has a small library, read after you have to go to the university to read, because the university's library is very large, after reading, you want to go to Beida, because the library is bigger, and then you want to go to Harvard study, because the Harvard library has the most books. We used to say that a doctor is a slave to a book and spends all day in the library. I remember when I was a small village, primary school every day to go to the entrance to the entrance to listen to an old man, because the old man he has been to Beijing, he said Beijing how good, said Beijing's busy, we will seal him for the village's eldest brother. And today's social circulation, we only to Peking University, Harvard, because Peking University, Harvard has the most cattle teacher, we do not know can he. Today you can go to Baidu, Google, micro-mail, you can get the world's most bull answer, and you ask that teacher he may use his 50 years of experience to give you the answer, there is a limit, if you can get the best answer online. In the near future, with the development of social networks, what has been the success of most of our successes? Depends on your classmate relations, colleagues. In fact, the development of social relationships has disrupted your relationship and injected it into your circle again. So the deal is going to be a huge change. Then how to go back to the trading industry, is worth your thinking. Second, medical, our civilized 5000, the whole medical profession is currently doing just a fix, which means you hang a knife and bleed, and we'll find a way to fix it. You have a stomachache, give you some stomach medicine, and then move the knife, sewing. Now 25% of the U.S. national budget is used for medical treatment, and this way I think is wrong, the future may be entered into another module instead, what to do? Why do you want to eat the stomach medicine? It's not really possible to change one, maybe 3000 for another, and the same function. The heart is broken also change one, the hand does not have the strength to chop swap a steel hand. This thing in a few months ago to help disabled people stand up a company ReWalk on the market, listing 11 yuan three days rose to 43 yuan, now fell back more than 30 dollars. The company has only more than 10 employees and only more than 1 million dollars last year, but why is it so much sought after? It is to help the disabled get back on their feet. Previously disabled we were just helping him with injections and taking medicine, but did not expect to help them stand up, and the company is to help them stand up and walk again. The meaning is also saidI say that the future of medicine is not necessarily by medicine, or by injection surgery, it really entered a replacement stage, or you will see our machine, or the house is assembled. Other people start to imagine, if it will go in this direction, the world will become interesting, you do not have to worry about the money is made away by bat, the future space will be very big. We now see the best company Apple is only more than 500 billion dollars, in the future, even if possible to create a trillion companies are possible. Google has 1 million PCs, 1 million PCs only 1000 dollars, but when it assembles 1 million computers, it makes up a huge network. In fact, there is a bit like avatar inside, we are not just machines, including nature, all the energy of biological systems for you to use, the world will be full of infinite possibilities. So, if you miss the PC Internet, missed the mobile internet, it doesn't matter, the next batch of opportunities will be even greater, I believe we will catch. Now we see Apple, Google and China bat strong, but in the face of the infinite possibility of the future, these may be only a transitional lead, we should dare to dream of daring to try to create a greater product! Thank you.