Can the group purchase website stick to the scale of profitability that day?

The intermediary transaction SEO diagnoses Taobao guest stationmaster buys the Cloud host technology Hall

Just recently, each group purchase website almost unprecedented unanimously played "the lowest price of the whole network" slogan, set off a new round of price war. This makes me think that has developed more than 5 years of group buying sites, it seems in the calm did not be able to gasp for too long, but also need non-stop to enter a new round of competition. Although this round of competition will determine the final survival, but this round of competition is bound to be more "brutal" than before.

"One will work millions bone withered" may be worthwhile, after all, someone stood in the end, and achieved a career. And if the bone withered, not one will work, the end is how miserable. Lenovo to the group buying industry, although now only 5 of the remaining purchase site, who is able to adhere to the profit of that day? And who can really "one will work"?

Domestic and International Freemasonry group buying industry

Group buying industry was once hailed as "Ponzi scheme", more said is the group purchase mode itself, the single function, that is, buy for offline businesses, in addition to pull the function of the new guest, for the day-to-day marketing contribution of businesses are few-Jos Ferrare in the article said Groupon model does not create value, Instead, it creates a balance and argues that "this is not a stable equilibrium, but a self-destructive equilibrium." ”

Can not say Jos Ferrare the comments of the year in the verse, but from the recent period of time group buying industry performance, the late development of a weak posture is revealed no doubt. Groupon's Q2 earnings showed a total revenue of 750 million dollars, up 23% from a year earlier, but a net loss of $22.9 million trillion. Groupon's shares plunged 17% after the earnings.

Groupon's performance is similar to the domestic group buying market--in the United States, the public comments, Baidu glutinous Rice Group Three strong pattern and competition in the case, buy data all the way forward, but no mention of profit--according to group 800 release of the group buy report data display, July Domestic group buying industry has reached 6.95 billion yuan, the chain net increase of 17%, and the same period last year, the year-on-year growth of 16%. In accordance with the growth rate of each group buying site in January-July this year, Baidu Glutinous rice, full network, Litters Regiment, the United States Group Network of these 4 last year have been upgraded, of which Baidu glutinous rice up to 4.34%, full net up 3.85%, litters group growth of 3.69%, the United States Group Network growth 3.8%--This means that The domestic group buying industry compared to last year, the growth rate has been improved.

To debunk the illusion of group buying scale profit

The internet has an "industry consensus", that is, a new business model or the company's judgment, the business growth rate is far greater than the business profit itself. Almost all entrepreneurs believe that, as long as there are users, there will be no shortage of profit models. If you apply this theory to the group buying industry, we seem to be able to infer: the group buying industry, although so far, the profit way is temporarily unclear (5~8% sales less than can be ignored, to the local life service industry horizontal expansion of the online booking mode is not yet system, the mode of delivery is at a very early stage), But at present the overall growth is gratifying enough to support it to get a high financing, or even listed.

This reason is understandable, high growth led to high financing, high financing continues to drive high growth, and there are a lot of stories to be talked about-Amazon, Jingdong, Amazon, 14 years of unprofitable but very high valuations, Jingdong is still a successful IPO after years of loss, and valuations have soared after the IPO. But if we simply apply this logic to group buying, we will find that it is not that simple.

Both Amazon and Jingdong have a relatively complete and tempting capital story, and in the group buying industry there is a lack of this story, which we usually interpret as a business model. We can say that the problem solved by Amazon and Jingdong is to help users cultivate online consumption habits, this can make the traditional business model as far as possible to achieve "to intermediary", so that users enjoy the cheap (please note that this cheap is not for the brand business), but also through logistics to save everyone out shopping time.

What about group buying? Group purchase can be said to solve the online payment online consumption problem (the so-called Life service class O2O), but this is actually a pseudo proposition. On the one hand, the payment problem is not actually solved by the group buying website, or rely on Alipay, micro-letter payment, Baidu Wallet, group buying is just one of the use of the scene, and did not allow users to solve problems such as change; In addition to the price advantage, and did not help businesses solve the actual problem-that is, many people advocated in the fittest, the rest of the site by raising the profit margin to solve the problem of profitability can not go through, because this way of profit and group purchase itself, "price advantage" is very contradictory, Buying a higher price also means losing the leverage that attracts users.

Therefore, for group buying industry, the future development in fact, there is still a road, that is, rely on group buying business accumulated enough number of users, will buy business horizontal expansion, to the online booking, online ordering function expansion, and thus through these "value-added services" to achieve profitability. But this for the current group buying industry, means that in the current single group buying business has not been divided into absolute victory, temporarily difficult to achieve large-scale profit. and taking into account the bat led by the internet giants jumped the league to buy personal hand-to-hand combat, in a growing competition, the purchase of profit is even more difficult.

The three main thresholds for group purchase profitability

In summary, the issue of whether group buying can be profitable, the need depends on two premises--1) group buying officially, so that group buying site will have enough energy to carry out business deep; 2 group buying to the local life service industry to expand smoothly, that is, can really change the existing business model of the transformation of business, by stimulating marketing methods (group purchase) Become a full range of marketing (La Nieu, back, members), for the real value of the merchant.

In other words, the development of group buying industry is a protracted war, a single group buying line of business is only a small battle in this protracted war. But from the current development of group buying, it seems not so optimistic, or even the existing group buying site can really adhere to the scale of the profit of that day, it remains to be discussed. Analysis from three aspects:

First, the group buying industry has not been the winner.

Although the United States, public comments, Baidu Glutinous Rice has basically established a three-strong group buying situation, and have a certain gap between each other, but from the development of three, it seems that there is no cuikulaxiu of the situation, and these three are not showing any weakness, the opposite stamina full.

From the point of view of resources, the public comments back to Tencent, Baidu Sticky Rice backed by Baidu, the United States Regiment recently took 300 million U.S. dollars in financing, which provides enough ammunition support for three. And from the current role of resources, Baidu Sticky rice rely on Baidu map, navigation diversion, the current growth of 3 home; The public comments rely on Tencent's entrance, has not yet shown the "killer" force, growth is flat; The United States to rely on its own some advantages continue its "Matthew effect" growth, performance eye-catching, However, given the choice of independent development, the resources can rely on a slightly less than the top two, so the follow-up strength remains to be seen.

In terms of growth, at present, group purchase business mobile end accounted for 70%, so the development of mobile end to a large extent represents the development of group buying site, according to the current situation, three can be said to be equal: According to the Cnit released the two-quarter group buy app download rankings, Baidu glutinous rice downloads fastest growth rate, Monthly growth as high as 30.1%--can be seen in Baidu glutinous rice with Baidu Fusion deepened, gradually reflect its follow-up strength; public comment Although there is no similar to Baidu glutinous rice, such as capital and flow support, but rely on its long-term accumulation of UGC in the field of the app also has a certain advantage; the American Regiment relies on an earlier layout, and a cat's eye , the United States Group hotel and other fine classification of the dash, in the overall volume is still not backward.

The so-called victory, more often refers to the destruction of their effective strength, but not a city of the gains and losses. Therefore, the current ranking of the top three of the group purchase site of the decisive battle officially started, the current leading U.S. regiment and no absolute advantage can rest assured that the remaining two still have enough strength to fight or even complete beyond.

Second, the consumption of war with the Chinese forces.

So far, the group buying industry has experienced a war of attrition (at the end of 2011-2013), a number of group buying sites because of the capital market Duanliang and sweet. According to statistics, at that time even for nearly 2 years, the monthly purchase of group buying has remained around 40 million. And in that war of attrition, the American regiment is undoubtedly the leader. But as the capital markets once again approve of group buying, BAT's entry allows the industry to change the pattern of competition, and these changes, the final result is that group buying began to enter a new round of "three hegemony" of the consumption war-in this war, the winner will be the real male local life service areas.

Different from the first consumption war in the fine operation of the princes tapping, this war of attrition is more will be the Big Legion battle-the two sides will coordinate all the relevant resources, desperate. For group-buying sites, most will use the two most tested and fastest way to solve the war: 1 fight price war, rely on the price war to rob users, 2 to dig line merchants to complete the ground expansion.

From the current development point of view, these two methods have been more obvious embodiment. Some time ago, Baidu glutinous Rice has been the first to launch a war against rivals, playing "the lowest price" slogan, online a large number of groups, and said that Baidu Sticky rice will continue to maintain a high level of subsidy investment, set off the industry's strongest price war. If not mistaken, Jing Dong was the gun to pick Su Ning is also used in this recruit, now the Baidu glutinous Rice has been under the tactics, from the competitor standpoint, the challenge means to start to spell consumption, the fight is very likely to be eaten a large part of the market share.

On the other hand, the online expansion of the city, the group purchase site has already begun the action. The group announced that the offline cities would expand to 200-300 by the end of the year, and even has been very low-key "Forrest Gump" are frequently interviewed, visible to the line of the Battle of the Merchant's attention to the extent; the public comments announced that the city to reach 100, and repeatedly to the media to mention its concessions to businesses, but also prepared to do enough. and Baidu glutinous rice more direct, as early as the end of last year, Baidu and glutinous rice net just fusion, on the burst of Baidu glutinous Rice North Nord team news. Around the line of businesses, especially the three or four-line city, there is bound to be a round of digging the corner of the war, perhaps this is the second group of purchase site City Manager "" Wealth opportunities.

Like the choice of life, for the second round of the consumption war, more time means a gamble-not lose win, win-take-all, and lose all, in this war, there is no so-called surrender, only the death of life, there is no choice. And this for the profit, like Phoenix Nirvana, in the Bath fire before rebirth, is bound to experience a fire baptism, can really live, now is not good to jump off the theory.

Third, the group can achieve a smooth transformation.

In the previous article, said that the group purchase site to achieve profitability, it must wait until the transformation of the day-rely on simple group purchase line is difficult to achieve sustainable development, from the case of Groupon can be seen, simple group buying line of business cannot even let the capital market to pay. However, because of the local life services involved in group buying, the content involved will be so much that it is probably not one that can be completely hold, give a few examples:

Quality control-The local life area will involve the user's basic necessities, especially for the catering industry, a food safety problem is likely to let the brand collapse. Group purchase as offline Business online marketing, has the responsibility of the Merchant's qualification to check, otherwise similar to the recent media burst out of the United States to sell in Hangzhou contracted "Black Workshop" event will likely make group buying fall.

Merchant CRM system--at present, although there are some group buying site in the effort of the monthly merchant CRM docking, but based on the current domestic online merchants have a few CRM system and the use of different CRM supplier interface, and other reasons, group purchase website want in a short period of time to get through the merchant CRM docking, realize the whole set of online marketing, Difficult to imagine.

Custom Marketing-There are many areas of local life services that are similar to seasonal, light season factors, almost every merchant will have different marketing strategies, including promotional methods, there will be group buying, coupons and other different ways, but the current domestic business overall marketing awareness has not fully reached the level of online marketing can freely use , this requires the city managers of the group buying site to develop customized marketing according to their strategy, which will cost a lot of manpower and energy.

Not long ago, Baidu launched the so-called "direct number", from a certain degree of understanding, can be said to be tailored for the Baidu glutinous Rice service, although the future effect is not good to jump off the theory, but we can see it as a combination of Baidu and glutinous Rice network after a milestone, and enough to let the United States, comments, Even penguins far south of Antarctica will be shocked. So, in the present form, the so-called group purchase site is far from the end of the battlefield, just another form into a more lasting battle-group purchase in the transformation of local life service areas, face a variety of problems, and for the current mess of local life services, whether to achieve a smooth transition, and then profit, It's not easy.

Group buying mode of the establishment, the biggest credit is to achieve the line to the online closed-loop verification system, so that online merchants in the online marketing, can be settled through the effect, so that merchants can know the specific online marketing effect. But this is just a run through the settlement process, the process can truly achieve a great innovative business model, really unpredictable.

Author Micro-trust public account: Yang Junjun Miscellaneous Pool