Can the large data warning earthquake break through the traditional prediction

Earthquake warning is undoubtedly a global problem that will not go out of date. Japan is the world's highest earthquake frequency of the country, in March after the 11 earthquake, there are still some media hype two years ago the earthquake have. And in China, recently came to the south more than 5 consecutive earthquakes, the disaster is serious, causing people's infinite panic, can not help guessing: whether there is a big earthquake to come, whether this unknown disaster should be done to respond to. The gratifying news is that China's first successful early warning of a February 19 Yunnan Qiaojia 10:46 59 Seconds of the 5-magnitude earthquake. So, can we use information or large data technology to solve the world's problems of earthquake prediction and early warning?

Why is it so difficult to predict earthquakes?

It is never too much to say that earthquake prediction is the most important world problem. It is important because its occurrence will involve large areas of human life safety and property security, difficult because of its coverage of the scientific field too much, too complex.

We know that daily weather forecasts are mostly based on temperature data collected by terrestrial weather stations and wind and air humidity to determine the next 24 hours, combined with meteorological satellites and mathematical models for verification. And recently everyone is concerned about the PM2.5 is more simple, the observation point with the instrument to copy data can be, do not do prediction work. But the earthquake prediction is very difficult, because you have to first know what the region belongs to the seismic zone, what the geological structure is like. Because, without this foundation, the data that is collected can be modeled incorrectly. The second is the accuracy of the model, because the mechanism of the earthquake is very complex, so the mathematical model we have built can not be completely real reaction, such as a non-linear change, we mostly through the linear model to respond, which has a great deviation of the results, known as chaos effect in mathematics. Finally, the collection of data is huge. On the seismic data, the collection of many types, project miscellaneous, geographical wide, long time, so the basic data storage needs a large amount of data.

Fortunately, despite this complexity, we are gradually groping out a new way, so that earthquake warning no longer distant.

Using data monitoring to form an early warning network

Because our country is also a region of earthquakes, the last century has many earthquakes, after the founding of the prime Minister in person under the guidance of the famous geologist Siguang, from the plate theory, set up a group of earthquake prediction team. The specific method is this, in the plate more active zone, first form a number of observation points, and then layer to implement the human, the basic parameters of observation. The parameters include geomagnetic, earth-electricity, declination, ground temperature, and groundwater temperature, water level and radon content in water. Observation point every day after the observation of their own data recorded, into a table, as a record, if there is an anomaly, should be up to the level of the county-level Seismological group report reflected. Because the basic equipment of the base observation point is rudimentary and the data is accurate, the county level will make judgment screening and remove the jamming signal. Then the district to the municipal level and provincial reporting, the final report to Bureau.

Visible, this is actually a very large earthquake warning network, if the observation points, the amount of data produced will be very large, light light with a simple hand-drawn trend map is relatively primitive, and if the earthquake occurs soon, it may be the work can only play a record role, and lost the role of early warning. However, this is the original early warning system, in the last century 70 's also accurately predicted the Liaoning Haicheng earthquake, let the world earthquake prediction Circle shocked. And Japan's 3.11 major earthquake before the earthquake 2 minutes ahead of the national release, let the world know that we can through the monitoring of earthquakes in the earthquake, immediately through the radio system to send emergency radio, through television, mobile phone messages and other means to inform the affected areas, which will give everyone time to transfer valuable property and personnel security.

The earthquake early warning system of China this February is based on this principle. According to Wang Yu, director of Chengdu Institute of High-tech disaster mitigation, they developed the principle of earthquake early warning system is this: "Seismic wave is divided into longitudinal and transverse waves, longitudinal wave speed, vertical propagation, transverse wave propagation, but its speed of only about 3.5 kilometers per second." After receiving the longitudinal wave signal of the earthquake, our receiver uses the radio (velocity = speed of light) to rapidly propagate to the early warning system, and to warn the seismic wave where it has not yet arrived.

China Seismological Bureau staff also said that China Seismological Bureau "National earthquake intensity report and early warning project" has now entered the development and Reform Commission project procedures, plans to invest 2 billion yuan, with 5 years to build a nationwide coverage of more than 5,000 stations composed of national earthquake intensity Speed report and early warning system. The project is currently being piloted in Fujian province.

Large data technology protects our lives and property security

By extension, earthquake volcanoes and so on can be used to test the monitoring. Just the more observation points, the more data that needs to be stored and processed, the United States has placed hundreds of observation instruments in the Yellowstone volcano, and data is transmitted to their early warning systems and released via the Internet. So, once the Yellowstone volcano problems, the U.S. government will be the first to know. The observation data is divided into two parts, one is regular data and the other is abnormal burst data. The more unexpected data in an area, the greater the likelihood of earthquakes. So the early warning system is mainly to respond to these data quickly.

When it comes to big data in addition to massive data storage and processing, there is another problem, is the diversity of data, earthquake problems are more obvious. We have just enumerated the parameters of the natural geography characteristic before the big earthquake, but animal anomaly is also an important index. For example, before the Tangshan earthquake, not only is the underground water level rises, the water temperature raises, is the mouse snake as well as the cat frog all has the unusual reaction. These are in fact common people can find if attention. One can imagine that an earthquake of that magnitude would not have any sign of life. The aim of predicting earthquake prediction is to find these clues through various means, and then quickly confirm and convey the message to the masses so as to minimize the loss of disaster.

Now there are many so-called folk scientists in earthquake prediction, they often based on the changes in animals or geomagnetic to judge the earthquake, of course, the error here is also relatively large, but this is an attempt, I think in the face of human life, such an attempt should be allowed. Therefore, I hope that the small earthquake prediction sites in those places can be recorded by most of the mobile phone pictures or text messages on the collection of animal anomalies before the earthquake, at least this can provide the most authentic information for the Professional Seismological Bureau, which is also a large data collection, such acts should be legal.

Reverence for nature and respect for life

We live on this earth, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and floods, like our Mother Earth's cold and cough, we can not completely eliminate, the important thing is that we need to know what happens in this situation, today's technology is changing, we hope that new large data technology can contribute to earthquake prevention and mitigation, Let 3.11 of the tragedy no longer happen! At the same time, pay tribute to all the experts in the world who contribute to earthquake prediction and prediction!