Canchi pharmaceutical industry is subject to production capacity sales increase 30% doubt

Lei Liping a generic, and a total of more than 10 domestic pharmaceutical companies produced by ordinary children Fever Medicine, was designed as a child of innovative drugs, the producer price soared, the actual control of the people leaped into Hainan's richest man. (see this newspaper May 13, "5,000,012-year rise 760 times times Canchi Pharmaceutical flood the mystery of") shrouded in children's pharmaceutical professional manufacturers, the biggest child antipyretic and analgesic drugs--nimesulide preparation--The halo of manufacturers, Canchi Pharmaceutical (300086.SZ) has been determined to 60 yuan issued price,　　Issue 25 million shares, super raise 1.186 billion yuan, corresponding to the issuance of P/e ratio 62.5 times times, more than Yunnan white powder (000538.SZ) currently 50.6 times times the dynamic PE.　　However, this reporter to learn more about the discovery, Canchi pharmaceutical pillar profit variety Rui Zhi Qing (commodity name) is the main component of the Swiss Helsinn company's patented products-nimesulide, while a total of 11 pharmaceutical companies with the same main components of the production of Nimesulide granules, the same are for children special Fever Medicine. A number of pharmaceutical companies, including Canchi Pharmaceutical, also said Rui Zhi Qing and other nimesulide granules in the efficacy of no difference, and after seven or eight years of development, although all pharmaceutical companies, Nimesulide granules are currently sold well, but the drug is no longer a new reiter, due to the higher maturity, the market saturation,　　At present, a number of pharmaceutical companies compete for price, market prices have become chaotic, the number of companies to profit from the main means.　　and Canchi pharmaceutical industry has been emphasizing the advantages-relying on the third terminal to form a sales network, the reporter learned through the investigation, Rui Zhi Qing sales success mainly depends on the clinical, rather than the full sense of the third terminal market.　　According to the prospectus, Canchi's 2009-year production capacity is close to the limit, and capacity constraints are expected to ease in 2011 years, and the annual growth rate of 30% per cent of sales revenue projected on the prospectus is doubtful. What is the core advantage of the prospectus disclosure, Canchi pharmaceutical business for children's pharmaceutical research and development, production and sales. Company is the production and sale of its own children's drug products mainly include Rui Zhi Qing (nimesulide granules), injection of ceftriaxone sodium, cough orange granules (national two-class traditional Chinese medicine protection varieties), cold and heat-clearing granules and other varieties.　　Among them, the treatment of children with antipyretic and analgesic type of Western medicine Rui Zhi Qing is the company's leading products, is its main business income and profit of the major source. In fact, the production and sales situation of Rui Zhi Qing basically determines the company's income and profitability level.　　The product 2007 years, 2008, 2009 sales revenue accounted for the company's main business income ratio of 64.24%, 73.01% and 80.77% respectively, sales of gross profit accounted for the same period sales of gross profit ratio of 72.89%, 84.67% and 89.54% respectively. Canchi pharmaceutical industry stressed that, because of good efficacy and high safety characteristics, Rui Zhi Qing in the doctor and patients with high visibility, reputation and good market base. And from the prospectus and the publicity of the company, Canchi MedicineIndustry has been trying to build the uniqueness and uniqueness of the scale of the company's Seretide particle production in the United States. However, the reporter inquires from the state Food and Drug Administration, currently there are 10 other pharmaceutical companies to produce Nimesulide granules: Suzhou Yu Pharmaceutical, Heilongjiang rui ge Pharmacy (product name: Mao Xin), Nanjing Branch Pharmaceutical (Rui Li), Hainan state Pharmaceutical, Solar Stone (Tangshan) medicine (good doll, racing Tatsu), Shandong Zibo Xinda Pharmaceutical　　(Pufeite), Anhui Province, the pharmaceutical industry (Fu Mei Shu), Anhui refined pharmaceutical industry, Guangzhou Baiyun Mountain Pharmacy General Factory (Yee Tai), and these pharmaceutical companies have sales of drugs on the market. Henan, Jilin and other provincial pharmaceutical companies, Nanjing Department of Pharmacy and Anhui Fine pharmaceutical workers are told reporters, whether it is Rui Li, Fu Mei Shu or Rui Zhi Qing, all with nimesulide as the main component of the child Fever medicine, in the curative effect is the same, and nimesulide raw materials need to import. "Everyone is a quasi-font, adapt to the same standard, flow, the same quality."　　Canchi Pharmaceutical Merchants Department of the Director also confirmed to reporters, Rui Zhi Qing and other pharmaceutical companies in the market to produce the nimesulide particles in effect no difference. But the Canchi pharmaceutical industry in the prospectus and publicity, has been the main competitor transplanted to Merrill Lynch, Tylenol and hundred creak, such as antipyretic analgesic child medicine.　　In its disclosure of China's major children's pharmaceutical production enterprises and the main product catalogue, the aforementioned production of nimesulide particles of other enterprises directly hidden, or to the company's similar products.　　In addition, in the case of major competition for children's drugs listed in the prospectus, although the Sun Stone (Tangshan) pharmaceutical industry, but only with the company's Good doll (child paracetamol and amantadine) in contrast to avoid the company also manufacturer name for the race of the nimesulide particles. And in enumerating the case of Nimesulide granule generic drug manufacturers, Canchi pharmaceutical industry also only stressed that other enterprises have production documents, and Nimesulide granules are "imitation Rui Zhi Qing." In fact, judging from the approval numbers obtained from the 10 pharmaceutical companies mentioned above, Solar stone (Tangshan) pharmaceutical production (Good Doll) (game Tatsu) Nimesulide granule was approved in 1999, Anhui Province, northern Medicine (Fu Mei Shu) and the fine pharmaceutical industry approval time in 2001, far earlier than the Canchi Pharmaceutical 2002, Shandong Zibo Xinda Pharmaceutical (pufeite) and Hainan State Pharmaceutical is also approved in 2002.　　Early or same period of medicine how to imitate late medicine? Canchi pharmaceutical industry also stressed that "in these manufacturers in the seretide particles are not leading products, so the focus of their investment is limited, production and marketing scale and market share is small, in the Seretide particle market in the United States and the company there is a large gap." "In this case, some of the 10 pharmaceutical companies pointed out that there are indeed many kinds of drugs they produce, the company's internal accounting is not obvious, but does not mean that a single drug in the size of the peers, in fact, the Canchi pharmaceutical industry currently has only the ability to mainly produce and sell the medicine," this should be their greatest disadvantage,　　Instead of strengthening the advantages for the peers. ToYukangzhi the pharmaceutical industry repeatedly, Rui Zhi Qing "did a lot of two research and development, including the optimization of product technology, packaging, to meet special needs, improve taste, dosage form, and even the refinement of the medication process, etc., so that products are very suitable for children, especially the product of the bag into a bar, is the national initiative,　　Become one of the important competitiveness of the enterprise. There are medical people said that the effect of nimesulide particles depends on the main components, some other accessories cost is very small, and "like Rui Zhi Qing stressed the taste, appearance, and so on, the current domestic technology can be easily done, such as fruit flavor, these are not the main advantages."　　Reporter from Anhui fine pharmaceutical industry learned that the company produced nimesulide particles have an added taste. Nimesulide Granules No more than Yunnan white powder has an exclusive formula, as long as there are raw materials all over the world can be produced, in fact, has been in production. Canchi pharmaceutical industry will look, taste, packaging as the company's important competitiveness, in fact, "its core value should be the main component of Nimesulide."　　"The Canchi pharmaceutical industry emphasizes its focus and the uniqueness of Rui Zhi Qing, but it is not a Swiss Helsinn company that has the monopoly of Nimesulide. Another number of pharmaceutical sales company responsible for telling reporters, at present, as long as the nimesulide granules, no matter which pharmaceutical production of all good sales, such as Nanjing Branch pharmaceutical production of Rui Li and Anhui province, the pharmaceutical production of the Fu Mei Shu is very good, sometimes broken goods. The contract of Anhui Fine pharmaceutical Products Nimesulide granule sales Changchun A medical company also revealed, "Do this medicine for six or seven years, sales are OK, we are now customers in advance, waiting in line to get the medicine."　　"Because of the good sales situation, Anhui Province, the pharmaceutical industry and other two pharmaceutical companies have emphasized the production of the original medicine." Third terminal "Concept" "Nimesulide granule" This medicine is very good for the fever, but we are not doing this medicine now.　　The head of a pharmaceutical company in Henan told reporters that the company once represented a variety of nimesulide particles including Rui Zhi Qing. "At present, the market is too confusing, the manufacturers are lower prices, the same specifications of the drug, some take the price of 2.5 yuan, some 2 yuan also reported that the cost is very messy, manufacturers on the sale of the costs of control at all do not pay attention to, all rely on the amount to spread low-cost.　　"The person responsible for further explanation, in the effect of the same background, look at marketing strategy, Rui Zhi Qing Sales is better, won in the sales strategy and network, but its price is very high."　　Zhengzhou, a pharmaceutical company revealed that Fu Mei Shu's ex-factory price in 2.3 yuan, and the same specifications of Rui Zhi Qing in 6.5 yuan up and down, the prices are nearly twice times higher. "Rui Zhi Qing specialized to go to the clinic, through the hospital prescription sales, in addition to other places in the hospital can not buy, protection is very strong, do also relatively early, the hospital's drug prices naturally high, time long also has the brand effect." Unlike other manufacturers, hospitals, pharmacies and terminals have gone, the channel is more open, the price does not go.　　The Zhengzhou pharmaceutical company said. And the head of Henan Pharmaceutical company pointed out that Rui Zhi Qing as a new drug to go firstClinical, in the hospital opened the market, but later turned into general medicine, in pharmacies also have sales.　　and Canchi pharmaceutical merchants in the reporter asked whether the agent can be in the pharmacy, a little hesitation to give a positive answer.　　But from the information provided by the industry above, Rui Zhi Qing opened the market depends on the hospital clinic, that is, the second-and medium-sized hospitals in the first terminal market, rather than its prospectus on the third terminal market concept: Rural drug sales market and urban residents community drug sales market.　　Then, why Canchi Pharmaceutical industry stressed its "starting from 2002 into the third terminal market marketing, is the industry's first to find the third terminal market business opportunities and actively intervene in one of the professional manufacturers?" "The third terminal market concept of the Canchi pharmaceutical industry and the sales model claimed to have been set up have made it more and more important for its listing, which has also become one of its core competencies."　　As one investor points out. In addition to the third terminal market concept, Canchi pharmaceutical industry in its prospectus said that Rui Zhi Qing is still in the market incubation period. The actual control of the people in the road show in Hongjiang still stressed, "Nimesulide was invented in 1985, compared to many decades or even hundreds of years of Western medicine, is an innovative medicine." Our company was only cloned in 2002. The drug to the market, there is a broad space, of course, the market incubation period.　　"The implication is that Rui Zhi Qing is still a new drug." In this respect, the head of Henan pharmaceutical companies deliberately explained to reporters, "Rui Zhi Qing has turned to general medicine, and the so-called general medicine is already mature, the market tends to saturated drugs." In the domestic new drugs generally need three years of market incubation period, but five years of the market is basically mature, and Nimesulide granules listed sales for more than 7 years. "Despite the background of the price war, the current sales price is still stable, but the overall market environment of the seretide particles has determined the downward trend of its price," the official said. The Canchi pharmaceutical industry in its prospectus also stressed the risk of drug price reduction: "Although the company's main products Rui Zhi-Qing price in the reporting period to maintain stability, but with the country to promote drug price reduction measures to increase the strength of the company's existing products in some varieties of the risk of price reduction."　　"Capacity constraints and another noteworthy problem is that the output of the Canchi pharmaceutical industry will be subject to the company's capacity constraints. The prospectus shows that 2009, Canchi pharmaceutical industry Rui Zhi Qing production line capacity rate has reached 99.91%, production and sales rate of 101.12%.　　and Rui Zhi Qing price fluctuation is not big, 2007 Rui Zhi clear each bag of average value of 0.3167 Yuan, 2008 fell to 0.2936 Yuan, 2009 slightly up to 0.2968 yuan, or 1.09%. And the Canchi pharmaceutical industry to raise funds to invest in the project, the construction of children's drug production base from the end of 2008 to the end of 2010, the main products Rui Zhi Qing period from 2011 to 2013. This means that in 2010, the output of the Canchi pharmaceutical industry will remain at the 2009 level., if prices are stable, the level of performance this year will remain at 2009 levels.　　Canchi is predicting that its leading product, UBS's sales revenue, will continue to grow by more than 30% per cent over the next 3-5 years, but the achievement of this goal remains questionable under current capacity constraints. On the other hand, although the company's other five types of child drug products such as the cephalosporin products, the production and sales of ammonia Kim Huangmin granules, carboxymethyl carbocisteine granules, Athletes ' music granules, and children's four-dimensional calcium aureus granules are rapidly rising, but they are limited by the company's production capacity, and some of the products put into the market for a short time, The scale has not yet been formed. and market share in the annual increase of cough-orange granules, its 2009-year capacity rate has reached 99.91%, production and marketing rate of up to 123.89%, even the basic consumption of inventory finished. Thus, the risk of a single Canchi pharmaceutical product structure will continue for some time.　　In addition to a possible increase in the sale of drugs, it is less likely this year to rely on the growth of other drugs to guarantee performance gains.　　Canchi drug industry performance growth has been a weak situation has attracted the attention of some brokerage researchers, based on a single product structure, the same drug impact caused by the decline in gross profit margins and drugs due to side effects of the risk of discontinuation, a number of researchers to give a reasonable price of less than 60 yuan. Among them, Li Shuhua, chief analyst of Oriental Securities and medicine industry, believes that the reasonable price range of Canchi medicine is 40.9-46.2 yuan, 31-35 times of the 2010-year forecast P/E ratio. Societe Generale Securities Wang Yu that for the Canchi pharmaceutical Small pharmaceutical enterprises, reference to the high valuation level of the gem, to give the 2010 dynamic P/E 40-45 times PE, the company's valuation level of 50.0-56.3 yuan. Zhang Fei, East China Sea Securities, also believes the company's reasonable price at 52.80 yuan-59.40 yuan, the corresponding company 2010 EPS earnings ratio of 40-45 times respectively. The Yangtze River Securities Shangpeng 2010 EPS30-35 times valuation, the proposed inquiry range at 36.6 yuan to 42.7 yuan.