Capital unfamiliar change weight shares or show "heavy"

Golden Ample liquidity is the main reason to support the rebound of this year's a-share market. But the tightening of the mortgage policy, the central bank to carry out repurchase, IPO, Gem, the non-tradable factors, etc., shows that the most generous time has passed, the capital supply and demand will gradually return to equilibrium.　　Market power or insufficient. Capital face or change "second suite" policy tightened sharply in early July, Zhejiang Banking Regulatory Bureau reiterated the two housing policy, requiring banks to strictly implement the second suite down payment 40% (the current local banks to implement a down payment ratio of 20% to 30%) and the mortgage rate is the central bank's benchmark interest rate of 1.1 times times.　　Since then, media reports, Beijing has also insisted on the implementation of a tight two sets of housing policy, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other place or follow. In response, Goldman Sachs said it was not surprised by the Zhejiang banking regulator's approach, as the Shanghai and Beijing banking regulators had taken similar steps two months ago. Goldman Sachs sees this as a sign that the CBRC has tightened its grip on mortgage lending amid concerns over the rapid rise in house prices over the past few months.　　And given that the two-pack mortgage policy is likely to have a negative impact on the property market (which will slow in the short term), Goldman Sachs believes some investors may be reducing their real estate stocks in the short term. The central bank carried out the positive repurchase July 7, the People's bank carried out the positive repurchase operation by the interest rate tender method. The cumulative return of 170 billion yuan, a significant increase in the previous period.　　In this respect, some analysts pointed out that the central bank open market operating prices are rising, to some extent, reflects the central bank's monetary policy adjustment intentions. In this regard, the National Maritime Securities Macro Research Group, it is likely that the large scale of credit is expected to trigger the bank's excessive credit growth concerns, hope through open market operations to control credit growth too fast. China Sea Securities Macro Research Group also analyzed, the central bank last week to restart a one-year vote, monetary policy fine-tuning, may have some psychological pressure on the market.　　At the same time, credit is expected to fall gradually in the second half of the year, given that bank lending generally presents the rule of "more than half a year, less in the second half" and that the current massive lending has reduced the pressure on banks to lend. Management has warned more than once about the risks of centralizing lending. Wang, secretary of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in a speech entitled "Cooperation and sharing of the development of syndicated loans steadily" on 7th to guard against the risk of rapid credit growth. "In the process of rapid credit expansion, the risk of the concentration of credit assets is becoming more and more prominent, and the new bank loan may appear the trend of industry concentration, customer concentration and medium-term transition." The greater the concentration of bank loans, the more vulnerable to macro-economic fluctuations and business cycle, the more severe the situation may even appear systemic risk.　　"Syndicated lending is a good way to prevent the risk of a concentration of loans," Wang said. Trillions of dollars in the market caused regulators to notice before the market breakthrough 3,000 points, a central think-tank warned that China's asset prices have been bubble, the recent upsurge in the stock market, and the illegal flow of credit funds to the stock market has, more than $1 trillion trillion in the 5.84 trillion-dollar new loan in the first 5 months of this year could flow to the stock market, "which has contributed to the formation of a financial bubble". Weiganing, Vice minister of macroeconomics at the Development Research Center of the State Council June 27, said in the "Beijing International Financial Forum 2009 Summer Report", according to his calculations, the first half, about 20% of the credit flow into the stock market, about 30% of the credit funds into the bill market. That means about half of the bank's money is circulating within the financial system itself.　　The result, he argues, is to push the financial bubble into shape. Weiganing said that to actively guide the credit funds into the real economy, the first is to rectify the bill market, to prevent the bill funds self circulation, not for the real economy services; In addition, the regulatory authorities should strengthen the regulation of the flow of credit funds to guide the flow of capital to small and medium-sized enterprises.　　But the market is more worried that if the investigation of the flow of credit is bound to cause serious impact on the market. IPO, non-tradable, gem direct dilution of liquidity 10th, the new issue of Guilin three gold, million horse cable officially listed transactions. And media reports, continued Chengdu high-speed Chinese construction IPO data has been sealed, super large stocks again airborne.　　Analysts worry that the super market if a short term landing a A-share, will inevitably have a greater pressure on the capital formation. It is noteworthy that the second half of this year, the ban on restricted stocks more than the first half, about 600 billion shares of restricted shares will be lifted, lifting the market value of more than 4 trillion yuan.　　This means that the circulation of the two cities will usher in an unprecedented expansion, as at the end of 2009, a-share market share will reach 74.04%, the circulation market value will be further expanded.　　In addition Gem ready, once listed will also play a role in the diversion of funds. The weight of stocks into the July, the stock index continued to be in the financial, real estate and other weight stocks led by even a new record. It can be said that the first half of the liquidity effect on the market has been played to the extreme, and is therefore the weight of stocks in the market since June, "elephants dance" to the market valuation to new highs. On the other hand, because of the current policy and time sensitive period, the recent operation of the central bank to recycle liquidity so that the market believes that monetary policy will be adjusted, this signal to the bank, real estate led by the weight of the stock is undoubtedly a big impact.　　Market investors worry that if there is a change in capital, the weight of stocks is undoubtedly the first. In fact, we can see from the point of view of the major organizations, and before you sing in unison, what is the difference is that the current institutional analysts in the future judgment, cautious a lot. Some analysts said last week, in addition to insurance stocks, brokerage stocks continue to go higher, real estate, banking, petrochemical, coal, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, such as weight index stocks have varying degrees of selling pressure, which is in the early relative increase (the bank plate after the end of May, the average increase of more than 40%, real estate stocks rose more than 30%) , in the short term, the larger gains lead to a sudden increase in the pressure of profit-taking; on the other hand, the recent market funds face change Bureau, the weight of the high position and follow-upFunding has shown signs of weakness, and the weight of stocks has been weak in the absence of more cash, which has slowed the pace of the index to a large extent. And from last week's market situation, also confirmed the above view. Since the death of property and bank stocks, the most determined bulls in the market seem to have suddenly disappeared. Although the petrochemical, insurance, real estate shares have been active since last week, but the market hot spot has been gradually converted from the weight of stocks to small and medium market stocks, the SME board index sharply higher enough to explain this phenomenon. Some market analysts expect that in the next period of time, the weight of the unit will gradually "retire", while the subject and small and medium-sized stocks are expected to "rise again".