Cass: Next year the price trend will be first raised and then suppressed

On the morning of 16th, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Finance and Economics Research Institute and Real Estate Economic Research Office released the first housing Green Paper "China Housing Development Report (2009-2010)".　　The Green Paper predicts that next year's housing price trend will be first yang and then suppress. Next year house prices first after the experts believe that the fourth quarter of this year, the housing market may have a drop in sales and price adjustment of a small process.　　Housing sales are likely to slow down in the first quarter of next year, the price is basically stable; second-quarter inflation expectations or the government may introduce new policies, the impact of a rebound in sales, price increases and development investment is more likely to rise, the third to fourth quarter price and sales may be stable or decline, development investment rose or remained stable. Beijing house price 1/5 bubble to high housing prices, experts said the housing market hidden bubble risk, on the one hand, because of domestic capital abundant, and property became one of the few investment options, a large amount of money into the property market, creating a serious housing bubble.　　On the other hand, the trade surplus has grown too fast, and international hot money has hit China's property market, creating false demand and fuelling the real estate bubble. The Green Paper estimates the housing bubble index in 35 cities nationwide, and the results show that Beijing's housing bubble exceeds those in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with real prices up 1/4 of the benchmark price. The price bubble index is equal to the actual price divided by the benchmark price, Beijing this January-August the average price per square meter is 12205 yuan, and based on the evaluation of the benchmark calculated by 9640 yuan, the bubble index of 1.266.　　By this calculation, this part of the "bubble" accounted for about one-fifth of the current price.　　Statistics show that in the survey of the 35 cities, Beijing People's housing capacity to pay the lowest, a reasonable housing capacity index of 1, Beijing residents of the housing Payment index in 2008 only 0.34. (North late)