CCTV: Experts say the price hike is not good enough

CCTV "News 1+1"-How is oil price bullish? International crude oil prices have risen repeatedly, the domestic oil prices began to rise 1st. Since May 8, the issuance of oil price management measures, the first use of oil prices adjustment, linkage pricing mechanism can play an effective role?　　Is it in line with the expectations of the parties? It is entirely up to the market to determine the price of oil, adjust government and business relations, control oil prices, with high taxes to curb oil prices, all kinds of foreign methods in which we can learn from the international oil prices better, we also need in what areas to make efforts?　　"News 1+1" for you to resolve.　　Moderator (Amy Yuexuan Wang Army): Hello, Welcome to today's "News 1+1". The price of refined oil, whether for the people's life or for the production of enterprises, are far-reaching things, today's development and Reform Commission to improve the price of refined oil. But a few days ago, precisely before the Dragon Boat Festival, the NDRC also stated that oil prices would not be adjusted for a certain period of time. In such a short period of time, attitudes and practices have changed so much, we have a lot of talk, some people say that this is an unreasonable, but very helpless approach, but also some people say, this is the NDRC's bluff.　　Yansong, how do you see the oil price rise? BAI (News observer): In fact, in the international crude oil prices continue to rise, the price of refined oil in the rise is not unexpected.　　But look back. In the process of raising the price of refined oil, the play became a kind of smoke and mirrors, the ups and downs of the guessing game, the experience and lessons here are worth summing up, the purpose is to the next time or a rise or drop the price adjustment more smoothly.　　Moderator: Let's take a look at the run-up to the oil price.　　(short film) News Moderator: The National Development and Reform Commission announced yesterday that the domestic steam and diesel prices were adjusted 0 o'clock June 1, with the price of gasoline and diesel up to $400 per ton.　　Explanation: On the first day of June, people who had just finished their holidays received news of the rise in oil prices, but the reaction to this somewhat belated oil price adjustment was much calmer.　　Private car owners: we can understand that crude oil is rising, not only our domestic rise, the international rise.　　Shilibi (The price inspection Department of the Beijing Development and Reform Commission): Crude oil has been adjusted for a long time, you do not follow the disconnection, the gap after a greater disparity, the common people can not accept. Explanation: The price adjustment in the expected, in fact, whether ordinary consumers or executives in charge of the price of government officials, people have already been familiar with the international oil prices at the beginning of this year after experiencing the lowest price of 34 U.S. dollars to go out of the upward trend. Especially after the May, after the international oil price accelerated overall rise, the domestic parties to the eventual potential for domestic oil prices to increase the psychological expectations are constantly strengthening. May 6, the New York market oil prices broke through 56 dollars a barrel, two days later that is May 8, the National Development and Reform Commission released oil price management measures,It appears that when the international market for 22 consecutive working days of crude oil, moving average price changes of more than 40%, you can adjust the specific provisions of domestic oil prices, for the change of oil price adjustment to do a policy and legal matting.　　After the international oil price after several perfunctory small oscillation, May 20, the international oil price rose to 62 U.S. dollars per barrel, reached the highest point of more than half a year. What is the extent of the rise in domestic oil prices? At a time of rising international oil prices, the domestic media and ordinary consumers began to constantly calculate and speculate on the domestic oil price changes. In accordance with the provisions of the oil price management method, if according to starting from May 6, the price of the current round of increase in time, the stipulated 22 working days as the standard basic parameters, then the time of adjustment should be 28th.　　It is at this time, Sinopec Chairman also disclosed at the company's shareholder meeting, the price adjustment will be announced on May 28, the remark, immediately let the media have predicted that the adjustment will be on the 28th day, private owners are more on the imminent increase in oil prices are increasingly strong expectations.　　Even as people speculate on whether oil prices will rise on the 28th of the Dragon Boat Festival, China National Radio's "Chinese Voice", "Yang Guang News", released an express on the afternoon before the Dragon Boat Festival.　　Moderator: To bring you the latest news, a number of media today have predicted that the retail price of refined oil may be up tonight, but the "voice of China" reporters just from the National Development and Reform Commission concerned departments understand that the recent oil prices will not rise. Explanation: But even so, on the night of May 27, there are still a lot of uneasy private car owners began to line up at the gas station refueling, but 0.1, the gas station did not appear any flop price.　　"Oil prices to rise, a false alarm, in the second day of the media page, people not only see the title, but also heard the NDRC's relevant department head of the public said" dragon Boat Festival does not rise, but June is not good to say.　　News Moderator: Domestic steam and diesel prices adjusted 0 o'clock June 1, of which the price of gasoline and diesel are up to 400 yuan per ton. Up？　　Not Rise, Rise! Moderator: Yansong, from the film just now, we can have a feeling, for the oil price rise, because with the international oil prices, we have no special objections. But for the rise and not rise of the various statements are also a lot, first, for example, according to the price of oil-related methods, it seems that should be up, and Sinopec related officials also suggested that May 28 may be up, then the NDRC said a certain period of time does not rise, and 28th reiterated the Dragon Boat Festival　　As for the various statements I found that there are more comments, people think that the person. Bai: In fact, this time the price of refined oil has been raised in such a few background I think we should pay attention to: First, this is on May 8, we have the "oil price price Management method (Trial)" After the first price adjustment, that is, in the past we lack a corresponding regulation, we take whatPlay rules to determine the price of oil is rising and falling. So, every time you find the past no matter the price of oil, as long as the rise, the main complaint is how to increase prices, we compared with the United States when the oil price is cheaper.　　But this time, with the oil price and price management scheme of May 8 (trial), everyone has begun to use the rules of the heart, that is to say, has noticed that the entire May oil price rose close to 30%, a 10-year world single month floating highest, the first time that a feeling, that is, consumers feel, should have risen.　　Moderator: Because it hasn't risen yet. Bai: This is an important background. But in such a context, there are two interesting cases, the first interesting situation is on 22nd, Sinopec's chairman said at the shareholder meeting, we are very worried, the latest can not May 28 will not rise, because we now have to loss and so on, we have a May 28 to increase the expected price. In fact, just a business chairman of the word, but after all, in our side, such a large enterprise with a certain degree of government background. So the May 27 day, petrochemical double-hung in the capital market continued to rise. But that afternoon, exactly as I heard from the audience, through the relevant departments to understand that there are two words, first, will not be up in the near future, second, to reduce the expectations of oil increase, look back at these two words seems to be right, see how you understand the recent and expected, the recent words, two or three days is not up, But I think anyone who hears this sentence will not take two or three days to understand the recent. Second, to reduce the expectations of the price hike, you will understand that when you hear it, it's not going to go up, but in fact, after today's rise, you'll find that it's not as high as everyone thought. So it seems to be true, but it is your understanding that almost everyone around you, if you hear the news of the people, are in accordance with the understanding we have just said, back to the time to ponder, and found that others did not say wrong, so here I think the most important is for the relevant departments, is also the first time in the "trial management measures"　　Then the price of refined oil, he also needs to accumulate experience, there is certainly a lesson here, that is, when you make a sound of how to hair, is not sometimes to keep silent is also a way. Moderator: We can also stand in the development and Reform Commission's perspective to see this problem, because now faced with a series of big economic problems, such as Shahu, summer, on the other hand, and catch the Dragon Boat Festival, we hope to have a peaceful festival, but also stabilize the whole product price of the problem, so at this　　Not willing to raise the price in the Dragon Boat Festival, I think it will have such psychological considerations? Bai: It certainly cannot say may want to increase price, because may want the price rises with immediately must the price increase must carry on simultaneously, otherwise will appear everybody's worry, the hoarding oil and so on, but on the other hand I have the different view, I thought in a market economy behavior, the Chinese refined oil price formulation futureMust slowly go with the international market-oriented, and perhaps one day no longer is the government pricing, I said is no longer too high crude oil prices or low crude oil prices, the normal rate of fluctuations in accordance with the market price. In such a situation, people's psychological endurance is to need a process, you do not think after so many years, everyone began to focus on oil, refined products and our life is getting closer, we have to the oil price may rise or fall have their own judgment?　　Why, for instance, after the oil price has gone up, many people will feel normal, because they know from the news that international crude oil prices from more than 30 dollars, has been to 66 of dollars, has the ability to withstand, I think we sometimes can not look at the market as a child, it also needs a growth process.　　And there's one more thing I'd like to say, in the afternoon of 27th, I noticed that the capital market had been closed, the stock market had been closed, it would not be appropriate to go to the end of the Dragon Boat Festival, when there would be no big fluctuations in the capital market.　　Moderator: Should say about the price of refined oil, we are also very concerned about, in the process, the Government will play a role, and then we look at a short film to understand. (short video) Commentary: Now, when China's "oil price management trial" has begun to implement, it is clear that the future price adjustment will be like the change in food prices, more and more normal, the Sanmao five, the next time may be five cents three.　　In the background of China's oil price to the international market, the pricing mechanism of oil price is more marketable, how can we draw lessons from the practice of some foreign countries? In the United States, oil prices are entirely up to the market, and one of the main reasons for the builders of oil prices is that its cost component is dominated by the cost of crude oil, oil prices are rising, gasoline prices are soaring, and crude oil prices are falling and petrol prices are falling naturally, which is quickly reflected in the pricing of gas stations. So in the United States, even the two gas stations close to the same street, the price of the same type of petrol may be different, sometimes a shop in the morning and afternoon prices have changed. Therefore, with full competition, the government is not involved in too much.　　But when the oil crisis really comes, in addition to the mature market operation, the government and enterprises will also start the crisis management mechanism, from oil reserves, alternative energy, renewable resources and other aspects, to maintain market stability. As we all know, Japan is a world-famous economic power, a small resource, the need for oil almost entirely dependent on imports, and therefore was once dubbed as "fragile flowers." But in fact, in the face of high oil prices, Japan has shown unusually strong resistance, when the past two oil crisis in the last century, the Japanese government found that the attempt to pass subsidies, control of domestic oil prices and other control methods, can not solve the oil crisis, but the overall economy into a vicious circle. Thus, Japan quickly adjusted its thinking, decided to abandon oil price control, adopt inaction policy, JinguoOil prices directly form domestic prices, forcing enterprises to innovate independently, change the mode of production, and realize the fundamental transformation of industrial structure. To this end, the government in the tax system, interest rates, and so actively for the enterprise, to create loose expansion of technical conditions for enterprise technology innovation to provide low-cost financing, at the same time, through the tightening of fiscal control of price increases, to engage in financial and financial reverse policy combination. This kind of price on the inaction, strategic promising to rearrange the position of the government and business.　　The result of this is to not only promote the private enterprise to form the self-discipline technological innovation, but also effectively restrain the price frenzied rise of the oil price rise, take the lead out of the oil crisis, can be called the miracle of the international economic policy history. High taxes make the Netherlands and Belgium the world's highest oil prices, but high taxes are also the most important means of regulating oil prices in these countries, unlike China, the Dutch and Belgian governments are not directly involved in oil price formulation, but let companies and gas stations free competition. But in order to prevent the oil dealers from driving up prices, the government not only closely tracks the import oil prices in the international market, more in the legal form of fixed the dealer's profit level, so it is actually limited the highest oil prices, according to the calculation, the actual price of oil imports in general only accounted for about 30%, and the government's tax revenue accounted for five or six　　, but in order to prevent high oil prices from affecting the normal life of the people, Belgium rules, once the retail price of petrol exceeded 1.5 euros per litre, diesel retail price exceeded 1.1 euros, the Belgian government will be through the reduction of fuel tax and other means to regulate. There has been an analysis that the emerging world's oil demand will soar for a long time to come, especially in China, where more and more cars will be needed, and developing countries, including China, are vulnerable to the impact of rising oil prices.　　Facing the constant adjustment of oil price, what kind of role should the Government and enterprises play and what kind of relationship should be formed between the markets? The price of oil rising and not rising behind the host: on the issue of oil prices, we have just seen from the short film, whether the United States, Japan, the Netherlands, Belgium, Governments have the practice of Governments, our Government has the practice of our government.　　We talk a lot, but curse should say snort does not solve the problem, from the next development point of view, in the oil price, we should grasp from the root, which place? Bai: I think the direction of course is to set prices according to market volatility, not simply the government to set prices, this is the direction, but it does not mean full market, because China still has a special side. I also noticed several times that a few times the oil price rises, everybody is talking about the United States, our oil is more expensive than the United States, yes, I went to the United States to see the city, we are more expensive than his oil, but in the United States, low oil prices contain a very large risk to the world, Regardless of its national strength and global oil production and its petroleum reserves. Its low oil prices have led to an SUV-heavy car that Japanese cars can kill.Car is a very important factor.　　On the other hand, consumption, regardless of cost. For China, I'm afraid it's a dilemma. One is that if China keeps a high oil price, it is unfair to consumers, and it is not good for consumers to stimulate the car, the related etc, including the cost of production of our company, but it is terrible to rely on the government's large subsidy to maintain the low oil price. Does the first Chinese consumer like big cars, we will not be able to produce energy-saving emissions, oil prices so cheap, so here is a very difficult process, but I think no matter how the dilemma, the direction must be established, I think is too high oil prices and low oil prices to be the corresponding mediation by the Government,　　The tendency to fluctuate in the middle is based on fluctuations in the market, which is the direction.　　Moderator: About the price of refined oil, the government has a lot of practice, in this process, we also listen to the voices of many, we will connect the national Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute of the Earth, Mr. Zhou Hello.　　Zhou (Research fellow, national Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute): Hello.　　Moderator: For the development and Reform Commission to improve the price of refined oil, issued such a notice, and at such a time node, how do you comment?　　Zhou Earth: My comment is that it's a little late, but it's a good thing.　　Second, I think the price adjustment is not enough.　　Moderator: Where do you say good deeds are?　　Zhou Earth: Good thing is because we have long-term positive and negative experience of education, we finally decided to and international prices on the price level, which is now being implemented, from this point of view, this price adjustment is very necessary, and can be said to be a little late.　　Moderator: You think the unreasonable place, such as the price range is not high enough, why have such an idea? Zhou Earth: Changes in international prices are significantly higher than the extent of our adjustment, we in the management mechanism after the change, announced the scheme is more than 80 U.S. dollars to begin to reduce the adjustment, we now only from more than 40 U.S. dollars to 60 U.S. dollars so a margin began to reduce the adjustment range,　　I feel that we have not acted according to the rules we have promulgated.　　Moderator: In the long run, what kind of role should the government play in the whole oil price process, what kind of thinking should we take in the long run? Zhou Earth: In the long run, the state should first reflect the scarcity of resources in energy resources, the second to reflect market supply and demand, the third to reflect our environmental, social externalities of these aspects of internal considerations, also called policy guidance, such as promoting energy conservation, promote environmental protection. In these scenarios, the price of oil to the low pressure, which itself and our long-term structural adjustment, building a benign society I do not agree. On the other hand, now the real oil sector, especially the people who drive cars, is part of our rich class, by the state or oil companiesSubsidies are not necessary.　　Moderator: Well, thank you very much, Zhou researcher.　　Should say about the oil price, about the role of the government in the oil price process of the issue, the Parties have views and statements, and then we come to connect China Energy Network Chief information Officer Han Xiaoping, Mr. Han, hello.　　Han Xiaoping (Chief information officer, China Energy Network): Hello.　　Moderator: What do you think about the price of refined oil that is raised by the NDRC today, and notice at such a time node? Han Xiaoping: I think it is a very prudent approach, first of all, the scope of the adjustment should be acceptable to the market. Because we saw your film just now, also heard the speech of some of the previous guests, I think we may be more to consider the comparison is 40,000 U.S. dollars, 30,000 U.S. dollars in GDP, but also more to consider the situation of consumer-oriented countries, we are a manufacturing country, but also a large population, for us, More important is to ensure that our employment, so that more people have to work, this is more important. So if we raise our oil prices, one is that the economy we have just seen is likely to be under great pressure. At the same time, we all know that the Dragon Boat Festival is just the peak of our summer, not only summer but also Shahu, need to consume a lot of oil, so for China, we can not just look at petrol, we have to see more transport, agriculture, see our entire transit link and our industry, this part of the consumption of oil may be greater,　　And more concentrated on diesel.　　Moderator: I think we are talking about more than it seems not to increase the number of less, the key is that the development and Reform Commission in the Dragon Boat Festival said that the short time will not be adjusted, and in accordance with the relevant oil price regulations should be adjusted, how to look at this people feel ambiguous practice? Han Xiaoping: I think the NDRC may also be worried that everyone is stockpiling oil, from the mechanism, we happen to be two cycles, because the total is 65 days without adjustment, this 65-day planing to the weekend, as the working day may have more than 44 days, because we know 22 working days to adjust once,　　So the adjustment did make the international oil price rise by more than 25%, our domestic adjustment is about 7% to 8%. Oil price rise and fall should be cautious moderator: Well, thank you very much for your analysis.　　Just now, two experts have also conducted some of their own analysis of the point of view, may be that some places are not exactly the same. Bai: In fact, from a certain point of view, such as the researcher stressed that, if the oil price is too low, for us to save energy and environmental protection, for enterprise updates and so is disadvantageous, and for many not well-off class, may also be unfair. But just now our Mr. Han talked about the oil price should not be too high, because of all aspects of consumption factors, in fact, there is a certain truth, this is the present dilemma. I'm thinking maybe the NDRC has his dilemma because IPersonal judgment, for a refined oil price hike or downward, I am afraid the final decision is not just the NDRC. I think everyone should be able to do this, which is sometimes it is also difficult place. But on the other hand, there are two points, first, you have the right to remain silent, because you have to know that for a government department, many of your words either early or late will play the opposite role.　　It is very important that the establishment of the mechanism of market behavior is unfavourable to the early and late speaking.　　Moderator: But you may also have such a question, I see online also have such a comment, the international crude oil prices are rising, you react very quickly, but the international crude oil prices are falling, your oil price decline is very slow. Bai: I am precisely facing this topic today, when the May 8 with the "Oil price management measures", everyone's attention on the rise, prices as if we generally do not talk about, because it seems to have benefited, but it is not. I am particularly concerned, if the international oil price continues to decline after the situation, our reaction will not be as fast as the rise, because one example is 5 months before December 19 last year, the international crude oil prices from 147 dollars straight down, but we only five months after the price reduction. But March 24 announced that the start of the 25th rise in the first time when the price of oil has risen only more than 20 days, the rapid rise. It's easy to come to a conclusion that you're slowing down, but it's going to be fast. So I would like to emphasize that the direction must be market-oriented. But please note that I need an explanation for that, why I said that high oil prices and low oil prices can not rely solely on market prices, because when the international crude oil prices, if you builders, China's manufacturing, consumption and so is a very big blow, This is why this time dare not raise so large oil prices, in our economy in a fragile recovery, it is certainly not good to rise, according to the international crude oil prices rise directly to increase our market prices.　　When the crude oil price is too low, I feel that can not builders, because it will lead to the opposite of some enterprises waste, is not aware of their own energy-saving emission reduction, consumer upgrades and so on, so this is also a problem. Moderator: Our oil price itself is controllable from the principle of formulation, and is indirectly connected with the international standards.　　What aspects of controllable art should be mastered in controllable time? Bai: Yes, this is the most critical, just now we said the highest, especially high, I am afraid can not builders, especially low when also can not builders, but the middle has the largest range, I have been emphasizing market behavior. This is also on May 8, after we debated for a long time, we finally saw a kind of, we finally no longer only depend on people to decide, and have a kind of institutional construction, that isMay 8, the introduction of the pilot management of oil prices, clearly said that the average mobile price in excess of 4% can adjust the price, this "can" word so that everyone suddenly understand today, and some say "no". What is the biggest blow to oil prices today?　　It is a big problem that the confidence of everyone in this approach has plummeted.　　Moderator: Now the price adjustment has a big time or a big background, for example, now the economy is facing a big recovery, including the current shortage of jobs, at this time to raise prices, is not reflected in the perspective of the ills. Moderator: I think in fact, after the May 8 "Oil price management measures", should be roughly according to the range of this approach, of course, before I noticed that the relevant officials of the NDRC said such a word, because of market hoarding and other factors, we can not Codin, Is strictly according to these 22 days, as long as the average price of more than 4%, we will increase, I think it is difficult to do, but at least you have this system, how in a certain space in accordance with this system, otherwise you this system, May 8 just came out, only this time the price adjustment, You don't trust the way you manage. I also noticed that this comment today, the price of the refined oil prices so that we have the "price management measures" in the "trial" of confusion, what to do in the future? Yes, I also have this confusion, just produced a happy point, that we can finally use the system to look forward to the rise and fall of oil prices, but now suddenly found that the system is not necessarily strictly follow it, this time you are confused. So I think this is a tough challenge for the NDRC, I would like to say that it is also the first time that it is the first time after the trial management method, I feel that with the first experience and lessons, it is time to go on the second or rise or down, not just floating, sometimes also downward,　　How to better let the management approach within controllable and enforceable scope.　　Moderator: I think we're going to return to our initial focus. We feel like this main point of argument is because the attitude in the past few days has undergone a great change in the future of the refined oil prices whether you are up or down such a process, before and after what kind of work should be done, we can be satisfied? Bai: I also noticed that day, it is not in the way of the press spokesperson, but the responsible department, in fact, in the last two years we have heard similar sources of news, I think for the NDRC, I do not know whether he is also very painful these days, who is in the end who is saying this sentence You will also see the chairman of Sinopec as a kind of government background, and we need a unified government information disclosure. (Source: CCTV "News 1+1")