CCTV "Global financial Connection": Tokyo Beijing Real Estate market comparison

Tokyo: 4 million Yuan to buy three in the real estate bubble era, Tokyo, Japan has the world's "most expensive city of housing prices," said. With the end of the bubble economy, Japan's real estate market gradually return to rationality, the price is also approaching reasonable.　　Today, CCTV financial channel, "Global Financial link" reporter recently visited a best-selling property in Tokyo. One of Japan's real estate giants Nomura Real estate development of a large residential project, located in Tokyo 23 area, the equivalent of Beijing within 4 ring. The property has a total of 785 households, the area from 58 square meters of two to 87 square meters of four residential. The most popular home buyers are 70 to 80 square meters of 3 residential hardcover, the current price of about 5-6 million yen, and 3.8043 billion yuan. 325 of the first phase of the project was sold out immediately after the opening day. According to the property owner, the project is only 2 minutes from the city railway station, to the city center traffic convenience, with appreciation potential, while the construction process to introduce environmental protection concepts, the introduction of solar power, rainwater reuse and other environmental protection facilities, saving the cost of living.　　And most importantly, relatively low prices are an important factor in attracting many buyers. Nomura, Japan's real estate sales director said: 50 million-60 million of the price, for the listed companies, and rent compared to the price is very attractive; from the city center so near, about 50 million yuan in the past rarely seen, the subprime crisis, many consumers control spending. Because the price of goods is very suitable for everyone to sell.　　So price setting is also one of the reasons for popularity. The reporter's survey found that, despite the limited land resources in Japan, because of its real estate market in the bubble after the gradual standardization and maturity, Japanese real estate and not too much hype, water is not much. Last year, Japan's top six real estate group average profit margin of 13.1%. Japanese per capita annual income of about 4.5 million yen, about 340,000 yuan, Tokyo, relatively high income.　　Rough calculation, an office worker about 12 years of net income can buy a set of decorated 3 residence in the city of Tokyo. Reporters interviewed Japan's real estate developers understand that this property is very small profit. There is not much profit to be made. Compared with the backlog in the house, they choose to turnover as soon as possible, when the house is covered to sell as much as possible.　　The sales strategy of this property is also in the spirit of small profits but quick turnover, completion can be sold all the purpose to sell. Japan's real estate bubble burst through a "lost decade", Japan experienced an unprecedented real estate bubble in the 80 's.　　After the bubble, Japan's economic stagnation in 10, for many Japanese nationals, these 10 years is just like a long nightmare. The rise in house prices in Japan began in 1985, when the "Plaza Accord", which represents a sharp appreciation of the yen, was signed, and after the depreciation of the dollar, a large amount of international capital entered Japan's real estate industry, which greatly stimulated the rise in house prices. The Japanese government also issued the "Capital transformation Plan", Tokyo Land investment is unprecedented active, land prices soar and quickly spread to the national, thus opening up the golden period of Japanese real estate. To spur economic growth, the central Bank of Japan adopted a very loose financial policy at the time, encouraging money to flow into real estate and the stock market, and in late 1989 the Nikkei index broke the all-time high of 38915 and the stock market was awash with money. The lure of a sudden rise in house prices has led many Japanese to speculate on their savings to make real estate prices soar. By 1991, the commercial land price of 6 big cities in Japan rose 3 times times more than 6 years, and the Osaka area even Rose 8 times times.　　, Killearn, chief researcher at Fujitsu Institute of Integrated Research, said that the bubble economy had raised property prices in Japan by many times, when it was calculated that the entire land of Tokyo, Japan, could be bought from the entire country. 1989, the Japanese Government was aware of the overheated real estate, began to adjust the financial, tax, land management policies such as macro-control, played a series of combination boxing, forced cooling of the real estate market.　　Japan's central bank also began to raise interest rates to regulate the credit market, accumulated interest rate has become the last straw crushed camels, Japan's stock market and property prices plummeted, hit the bottom. Japan's comprehensive Policy Bureau of the Ministry of Land and Transport, Hai Yan, said that the 90 's Japanese land prices soaring, the government believes that must be controlled. The myth that Japan's land price continues to rise must be broken. The government has suppressed exorbitant land prices from financial, tax and land transactions.　　Not too much consideration of adjustment, or the consequences of the bursting of the bubble. 1991 years later, the Japanese real estate bubble, largely driven by foreign capital, was rapidly dashed as international capital profited. The bursting of the bubble has had a huge impact on Japan's economy and society, and many of the Japanese who bought real estate during the bubble economy have been living in a quandary or even bankruptcy.　　By 1993, Japan's real estate industry collapsed, companies have collapsed, the legacy of up to $600 billion trillion of bad debts. Japanese experts: China does not have a Japanese-style collapse the Chinese government has recently issued some draconian policies for soaring property prices, some people are starting to compare China with Japan, fearing that China will thus have a crisis like Japan did at the end of the 90, but in our interview, Japanese economists disagree.　　Think that China will not appear in Japan's past.　　Japan's real estate bubble burst after the "lost decade" so many Japanese still remember, the Japanese real estate finance and Engineering Society president Shikawa in the "Global financial Connection" reporters that the current real estate prices in Japan is still relatively low. Shikawa said that the Japanese real estate prices overall low, there is slow economic growth, population decline, recession and so on. Given that the local economy is in recession, the current low price is still moderate in some areas Cks a Lang believes that China and Japan in the banking, financial embodiment, economic development model and demographic structure are different. China insists that the RMB exchange rate remains basically stable and restricts bank funds flowing into the real estate market, increasing inflation expectationsSituation, the central bank will not lower interest rates, which is completely different from the policies of the Japanese property bubble.　　He also believes that China's rapid economic growth will not lead to a sharp decline in house prices, but because prices are already high, future housing prices will fall. Cks One Lang also believes that there is a difference between China and Japan: first, Japan's 80-year population growth rate is low, the 90 labor force decreased, and the Chinese until 2020, the labor force is on the upward trend. Second, China's GDP growth rate is 10%, as it did in Japan in the 60 's, so prices will not fall sharply. It is predicted that China's GDP will be as high as $123 trillion trillion in 2040, 3 times times that of U.S. GDP, so real estate prices are bound to rise. But now Beijing and other big cities such as housing prices are basically flat or even higher than Tokyo, on the basis of the sharp rise is unlikely.　　So it's not far before the price adjustment starts to fall. Yu Yongda: China's real estate market will not collapse global financial link Host: China's property market will repeat the mistakes of the Japanese property market?　　In China on the one side is constantly climbing the high prices, one side is a considerable amount of rigid demand, then the sharp contradictions in the housing market how to be able to solve, we immediately to connect Tsinghua University School of Public Management International Strategy and Development director Yu Yongda.　　Hello, sir.　　Yu YONGDA Director of International Strategy and Development, Tsinghua University School of Public Management: Hello, moderator. Moderator: Japanese experts believe that China will not have a Japanese-style crash and China's rapid population growth and strong demand for robust, we want to know what is your point of view?　　What are the characteristics of the Chinese model compared to the development models of other countries ' real estate markets? Yu Yongda: We believe that China's real estate property market will not collapse, mainly in the following reasons: First, the Chinese economy to adjust the industrial structure of some of the practice is rational, when the Japanese restructuring of the economic structure is only a bubble. Second, China's economic and social development speed is relatively fast, when Japan did not do so we, our future economic and social development will be very fast. Third, the government's regulation is very strong, China's efforts to regulate the economy is not only the government adjustment, and the bank has many other forces to help the government in the adjustment.　　In the last part, the ability of Chinese enterprises to help the government move towards a new stage of historical development is stronger, that is to say, the ability of the enterprise to change its business direction and adjust its industrial structure is much stronger than that of Japan, so I think the property market in China will not collapse. Moderator: You just talked about the Chinese government regulation is strong, then from the April 14 regulation policy, the implementation of more than half a month, you think the effect?　　The trend of the future housing prices is how to move, is the rise or to stabilize? Yu Yongda: China's property market, China's real estate industry, it must go into a rational stage of development, that is, from the original comparative advantage, towards a positive advantage of the development stage, which in Guangdong Province to doHas been better, Guangdong province has many aspects of the history of the development stage, and then formulated a cluster advantage development strategy, in the coming period of time, China's property market needs to be adjusted, but the mode of adjustment more to imitate the European countries, which means that the city to play a role of agglomeration advantage,　　Can not build so many garbage buildings, to build a agglomeration of building advantages, industrial advantages, talent advantages, development advantages, such as a new development model. In this context, we believe that the price of the property market must be reduced, real estate prices to adjust, this adjustment to a reasonable rational inside, this is not a collapse, I think that the word collapse used improperly, adjusted to a suitable growth situation inside, mainly in housing prices and economic growth, and the improvement of people's living standards, To be consistent with the construction of China's modernization, the standard is that ordinary people with general income and a relatively short time to buy their own more ideal housing, this is the standard. How long? should be 8 to 10 of time, to achieve this standard. Here, I would like to advise some real estate developers in their own speech, it is best to avoid some of the more acute point of view, the real estate market on the one hand should be guided by the Government to develop long-term planning.　　On the other hand by the people to choose, rather than by the real estate owners to do propaganda in a situation. Moderator: OK, thank you very much, Sir, thank you for your suggestion, thank you for sharing your opinion with us.