CCTV talks on economic big plane: opportunities and challenges in China

2010CCTV China Economic Forum--China's opportunities and challenges in endogenous development "dialogue" moderator: Chen Weihong Guests: Yin Cheng, deputy director of the National People's Congress of Finance and Development Commission Wang Yiming, deputy dean of the Macroeconomic Research Institute, the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee member (2010CCTV China economic figures) cloth Laire Chepode Duke University Business school Dean Jiren Neusoft Group Chairman (2010CCTV China Economic figures) Shi Shi Wuxi Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. Chairman (2010CCTV China Economic figures) the past 2010 is an imaginative year. The world's political and economic structure is undergoing profound changes as global vicissitudes and events occur frequently. China and the world are walking through this year in great challenges. Both the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the weakness of the US economy have added to the vagaries of the fragile economy, and the road to recovery is not flat. However, when we look to China as a representative of emerging and developing economies, we find that it is still a lone show in the economic recovery, leading the growth of the global economy. But with the gradual ebb of the international financial crisis, China is also facing challenges from all sides. Under the inertia of the long-term "world factory", can Chinese manufacturing industry break through the resource dilemma and break the low-end chain? Can the Chinese government change the pattern of income distribution in the future?　　How to stimulate domestic demand and make the Chinese economy complete the circulation of blood health in vivo? The challenges facing China's economy are like all sorts of complex weather conditions that have been encountered in the course of a plane's voyage, in order to allow the plane to fly safely. In the 2010CCTV China Economic annual character selection event-The first CCTV China Economic Forum, the dialogue invited four Chinese economic aircraft "Navigator": Yin Cheng, deputy director of the National People's Congress of Financial Affairs, Wang Yiming, deputy dean of the NDRC Macroeconomic Research Institute,　　The member of the central Bank's Monetary policy committee, Blaire Chepode, director of the China economic year, Li, Duke University Business School, and the winner of successive Chinese economic figures, came to the forum to steer the Chinese economic giant plane that was sailing.　　1. How to adjust the course of the weather during the voyage? Chen Weihong: As a driving force in the recovery of the world economy, China is just like a giant aircraft, and in the course of its flight, it is bound to encounter a variety of completely different weather conditions. Our first priority is, of course, to be fully prepared and to make adjustments in a timely manner. Today we are on the scene and have invited four guests to serve as the navigator for our flight. Four navigators in their daily work, must have a very frequent flight every year. But today, they will be accompanied by the Chinese economy of this large aircraft, the beginning of a unique flight.　　Which area of the road map we are flying now is causing you attention, what is the current weather condition and flight status in this area? Yin ChengQing: One concern is the development of manufacturing industry, what is China's biggest development in 32 years? Is that we seize the opportunity of economic globalization and take advantage of China's relatively low labor force, land and resources to participate in this economic globalization. So in China for more than 32 years, we have grown up faster for a manufacturing powerhouse. Become an exporter or a trading power. But this international financial crisis, the biggest one is to show the Chinese manufacturing, low-end manufacturing has been unsustainable.　　So I think if China says such a flight condition, it is China's manufacturing industry, will be subjected to severe cold.　　Chen Weihong: How do you adjust? Yin Cheng: China's manufacturing industry, which has surpassed the United States in 2009, has a total output of 220 million 2.2 trillion dollars, so it is known as the World Factory. Now is our world factory is big but not strong, if use three 10%, we now is this kind of domestic invention, authorization quantity less than 10%, is by our own invention patent. Second, the size of industrial enterprises, engaged in research and the development of such a career costs less than 10%. The third is that we are now in this export of this product and technology in the middle, have independent intellectual property rights, and the holding of the independent brand of less than 10%. Therefore, we should encourage technological innovation, so that our industrial manufacturing industry, from the original big and not strong into big and strong. Turn us from the factory of the world into the mighty factory of the world. Most of all, by improving our core competitiveness in the process of coping with international crises, we have passed this technological transformation and introduced technology to traditional industries. At the same time, focus on the new technology of this technological revolution, the establishment of emerging strategic industries.　　Twelve-Five planning, we will add 10 indicators, 10 of which involve new energy, this energy-saving emission reduction of six, these are our green economy, this Low-carbon technology will create great opportunities. Wang Yiming: I am more concerned about domestic demand this together, now investment, it should be said to have encountered a little rain, a little cooling. But in the area of consumption, I think the sun is shining. Because despite the crisis, our income growth has not slowed down, and the consumption of residents is very active. For example, to give a car, the most typical, last year, we sold more than 18 million cars, I remember 13.645 million years ago, so last year's increase is the biggest. When this stimulus to expand domestic demand is small displacement, the car purchase tax decline, there is a certain correlation. But also is our consumption upgrades, develops to this stage to form an intrinsic demand. I guess this year's words could break 20 million. I remember the tallest in American history is 18 million cars. China this year's retail this together, I estimate is about 15.7 trillion, compared with the government last year, last year 15.7 trillion. I think the biggest feature of China's relative to other countries is that it also has a potential and huge domestic demand market which is not fully developed, and in this market is one of the most important driving forces for us to maintain high growth in the future. If you twoEngine, the investment is still an engine, but the importance of the engine will be more and more prominent in this consumption. Wang Yiming: Investment in consumption of two engines, China's economy, it is characterized by investment in this engine, strength, consumption is relatively weak, so you fly in flight, if two engines, power imbalance what the consequences? It is easy to deviate from the course, so the new correction method is to put the consumption of this engine, power to strengthen. I think that one of the three ways is to promote urbanization, that is to allow more and more people entering the city to change his way of life, is to let him gradually become urban residents, rather than migrant workers. The second one is that we say adjust the income distribution, so that the income of the middle and lower income groups with the economic development, and the corresponding increase in synchronization. I think this common people, the most concerned about the most support, their income increase, consumption of power, is the whole consumer power will be stronger is it. The third amendment should also change the function of our government, how can our government encourage people to consume?　　To provide better public services, education, health care, social security so that people do not have to worry about, including affordable housing, so I corrected this is three. Li: Our big plane is not only a long journey, but, in fact, our flight speed is faster than the developed countries that fly in front of us. So we are an overtaking type of aircraft. So since it's an overtaking aircraft, we must be aware that the planes that run in front of us may give us a variety of streams. Now I see a stream is what, that is, the front of the aircraft can not move, the engine trip force, how to do? Put some air out, hot air out, top of us this plane up, there is this quantitative easing, excess liquidity, engaged in the whole world economic environment are going up, how to do? This time as a pilot, my idea, my advice, must firmly control your driving sense, flying sense, can not let this plane by its hot air up the top. Because of what? You know, when this hot air gets to you, the hot air will suddenly turn cold, and you'll fall off the plane, and by this time, the passengers on this flight will not be able to handle it, and even the plane may have problems. Specifically, we must control our own macro-policy, not because of the global abuse of money, our monetary policy is to follow others run. In this time, raise a little reserve ratio, this, in a special case is completely should.　　Raise the reserve rate is nothing but your foreign hot money temporarily put up, do not interfere with our course, do not let us this plane is your top up, after a while this aircraft planted down, this is very important.　　2. Air supply in the course of Flight Chen Weihong: If we are to keep this momentum going, what are some of the most effective supplies you will find? Yin Cheng: I choose income distribution, System reform. Because I think that's what it says about expanding domestic demand, urbanization and income distribution reform. DoIt's often the order in our files, but I think the root of the two lies in income distribution. I think of it as a metaphor, and I feel like we're going to have a good meal and some good drinks. Say that with good meal, is actually cut the cake, although we subjectively think so, rely on investment from the past, rely on exports to pull, but also to the domestic demand this, but this leg, this wheel, this one is still short. Domestic demand expansion, residents consumption expansion, the root of the income distribution system is unreasonable, the people have no money to spend. Therefore, in our distribution system reform, over the past few decades, more than in the middle of the enterprise, too much to the capital tilt, labor remuneration in the enterprise profits, the middle of the enterprise, the proportion in the gradual decline. In the country, the government and the residents, so much income to the country tilt, we 2010 years, our revenue reached nearly more than 8 trillion, we light 2010 years of over-enrolment income is also nearly 900 billion. Now the gap between our regions is growing, the gap between our urban and rural areas is widening, and the gap between our social strata is growing. So this is not only inconsistent with the nature of our society, and the purpose of our economic development is not consistent. Fundamentally, it's not good for all the passengers in our cabin, but to be able to sit very honestly in our seats. So I feel like I'm going to have to match this to the cake. Then, if the rich can order a drink, he can order red wine, he can order the XO can.　　However, we must pay attention to the basic requirements of the people. Li: I also choose income distribution. Why, I describe our plane, now at a very difficult time, it may be six o'clock in the morning, the passengers began to wake up gradually, the belly is very hungry. This time, everyone wants to eat. Suddenly found that, sitting in the first class of the President of the Blair Duke University, he had a good meal, I sat in economy class, I only gave me a bag of instant noodles, the ordinary people, the economy in the back of the class, ah this is unfair. In fact, the latest figures show that there are signs of a narrowing of the gap in income distribution within our population, at least in the past two years, we have seen data that has increased rural net income faster than city dwellers. The wage growth of migrant workers exceeds the starting salary of university graduates, which is a good sign of development. So the 1th, I do not think that the excessive panic, can not be said that the distribution is now uneven, hurriedly go to first class Rob food. In this case, our plane must be top-heavy, this plane must be an accident. So what's the point? Emphasis should be placed on the adjustment of the large pattern. We should see that the plane, we have warehouses, there are a lot of food in the warehouse. The country is now not short of money, the state's revenue, the annual rate of more than gdp5% to rise. Why is it not possible for our Airbus staff to get a little more food from the warehouse for the time being and give the economy class friends a break from the saddest moment? The belly basically eats full, the big pattern is right, then comes againAdjustment。 When their first class passengers are full, he will also do some charitable action, we encourage him, give him a little applause, he will give our people, right.　　So I said I should catch big and small. 3, the external environment of navigation Chen Weihong: In fact, China and the world today, the relationship between them has become more and more close, so, when we fly in the global airspace, in fact, there are also many large or small aircraft. For such a difficult flight environment, I think we will have some more or less feelings. The so-called hardship, not only from the external environment, flying weather may also have some man-made factors.　　In this respect, our four guests have some experience, and I think Mr. Li will appreciate more. Li: I think there are two main categories, a big class is running in front of us, like the United States such as Air Force, they are still very worried. They worry that Chinese planes are running fast, that they are catching up with him, and that many of their passengers, too, are agitating for their own consideration. The pilot who instigated them threw out a little obligation to hinder our way. The second category, as well as the emerging market countries that are flying parallel to us or that are a bit behind us, are worried.　　They say your Chinese economy, China's aircraft fly too fast, will not produce a number of streams, so that our later routes have been affected. Chen Weihong: So what are they throwing out?　　Like not to let you fly, to give you no-fly, you don't fly to me here, don't you? Li: That sounds very, very much. Most obviously, what impresses me most is the October 9 of 2010 years. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund held annual annual autumn meetings. In addition to the formal agenda, they arranged a small closed-door forum for global opinion leaders, 35 of whom I thought was a relatively academic, comparative, and friendly discussion, and the atmosphere was completely different when I went to see it. The people who spoke were almost unanimous, accusing China. Some people say that China is irresponsible, China does not appreciate now, so other countries do not appreciate, seriously affect the global economic rebalancing process. It has been said that China used to be a free rider, and the U.S. economy was booming, driving China's exports. Now you see the American economy is not right? You need China to be responsible, you should appreciate it, make your market more open and criticize a lot. After going to, I really, tell the truth I am very nervous, at first I was ready to speak can not use, the beginning of the speech is completely useless. This occasion, general my habit to speak first, because afraid behind no time. By this time, I said that the old strategy is not used, we have to talk, let them speak their different opinions.　　Then finally I come in unity, one by one to sterilize you. Blaire Chepode: I think the question you just asked is very important, because in a way, the big partDivided flights are not subject to this technical restrictions, but mainly by artificial restrictions, the following several man-made restrictions must be very careful, because our Chinese aircraft experienced some turbulence, not only for China, but also for the whole world. The first is human nature, usually does not admit their own mistakes, and blaming others, it is human nature. Second, the flight is not smooth, mainly because of poor communication. Third, generally other people than we develop better, we will envy, this is human nature. So the challenges facing China today are the same as in all the rest of the world. Many other economies in the world, they do poorly, and if we ask them why they do poorly, it is actually his own endogenous problem. But he may complain that the US financial system is not good enough, and then the failure of the US financial system leads to a global economic meltdown. So people often complain that it is often difficult to make changes in their own. Poor communication, especially between China and the rest of the world, most of the world does not understand what China is doing, what China's philosophy is, what internal difficulties China faces, they do not understand. So it is the lack of understanding that has led to a deepening of the contradictions between China and other worlds. In addition, it would be great if the whole world could really understand China, and everyone would focus on their own problems rather than envy the development of others, but become part of the whole process of the world. I think in terms of China, the following two aspects are also very important. First, China must now realise that China is already a second-place aircraft, a status that cannot be denied. 2nd, the pilot, he must be in the daily flight schedule, and all the same time with his flight pilots to communicate, tell people what he wants to do. You have to tell people what you want to do, what you intend to do, and what results you want to get. The rest of the world doesn't know what you think, and we want to fly next to the one in the sky. In addition, China will face trade barriers, and will encounter more trade barriers in the future. Trade for China's development is still very important, China also hopes to expand domestic demand, if the internal needs can be more development, more satisfaction, China's economy will grow further.　　and other countries can rely on China's domestic demand for further development, I think this is the difficult task China faces, China has no choice. Chen Weihong: 2011 has started, I think China's giant aircraft will still go through the clouds, continue its flight. I think if we pay attention to the Chinese giant aircraft, in the past flight trajectory, you will find that in fact, inadvertently, history has completed its own unique narrative. In such a space-time flight, we can feel the oscillation of the world economic recovery, or its anxiety. Of course, we can feel the enthusiasm and vitality of China's economic take-off. Into the 2011 years, this is our Twelve-Five plan of a start year, we have reason to believe that China's economy is with its change, open the door to opportunities. We are still soaring in the face of many predictable and unpredictable challenges. (The China opportunities and challenges for endogenous development in this episode of the dialogue) will be aired on January 23, 2011 21:55 on CCTV2 Financial channel)