Cement industry: Concern about the influence of plum rainy season on southeast Central region

Concerned about the negative effects of the plum rainy season on the cement industry in southeast and central China May late to July for the south-east, the central region of the rainy season, rainy and flood, infrastructure construction off-season, the region's cement demand is obviously falling, the next 1-2 months cement price trend cautious attitude. After the July Mei rainy season, the construction volume is normal, the regional cement prices will gradually rebound this week, the national cement prices are basically stable, some areas are mixed with each other this week in most areas of domestic cement prices remain stable. Falling cities: Chongqing-30 yuan/ton, Nanchang -5~10 yuan/ton; the rising city: Haikou +20~40 yuan/ton, Guangzhou +5~10 yuan/ton, Lanzhou + 20 yuan/ton; Zhejiang, April 18 ~4 Month 30th gold, construction, LAN area Limited prices, May 18 ~ May 28 to start the surrounding area of Hangzhou to increase the price, Hangzhou area prices up 10 yuan/ton.　　Another, May 28 ~6 month 10th, Zhejiang Province launched 12 days of the provincial production plan is expected to increase the price of 10 yuan/ton. 09 To date the cement industry sub-regional operation in 09 January-April China's cement production 429 million tons, an increase of 13%, single April output of 147 million tons, the year-on-year growth of 12.9%, the chain growth of 20%. In the subregion, the northwest, northeast, southwest and South Central still maintain high growth, the output growth rate is 24.56%, 22.8%, 28.94%, 27.15%; affected by warmer temperatures and construction season and other factors, east China, north China, South East output growth hit bottom rebound, Output growth rate of 4.27%, 8.59%, 8.27%, respectively, compared to the January-March growth rate increased by 1.01, 2.06, 3.43%; Since 09, China's cement products average price of 321.96 yuan, an increase of 4.56%, compared with March average increase of 10.91 yuan/ton.　　In the subregion, the cement prices in northwest, north China and northeast China increased 24%, 17.06% and 11.07% respectively, and the cement prices in the southwest and East China increased by 3.46% and 2.96% respectively, and in the south and South East cement prices fell year-on-year, respectively, 5.72%, 12.4%;　　The establishment of the cement industry unit price, cost, ton of gross margin changes in 09 January-March Overall profitability of the industry declined month by year, April industry profitability significantly rebounded, is expected to continue the May trend. The cement industry is expected to increase profitability in the two quarter to enter the cement industry traditional sales season, real estate investment warmed up, the real economy has to build a price alliance to maximize profits, the majority of the country's cement prices will be stable in the trend of growth, profitability 2 quarter to upgrade; The subregional view, continue to optimistic about the northwest, Northeast region, for Central-south (08 to the end of the region still need time to absorb new production capacity, the plum rainy season is not conducive to the construction and Flood), Southwest (external cement entry and new production can gradually release) and southeast (rainy season rainy weather is not conducive to construction and lead to flood) area cement price trendMaintain a cautious attitude; real estate investment warmer, east and north China into the construction season, the regional cement prices optimistic attitude, high performance sensitivity.