Cement industry: Rainy weather affects cement prices and valuations

Investment points: This week P42.5 tons of cement prices: (1) up three areas, Haikou up 20-40 yuan, the increase of 5-10 yuan in Guangzhou, the increase of 20 yuan in Lanzhou, (2) fell two areas: Chongqing fell 30 yuan, Jiangxi Nanchang fell 5-10 yuan; (3) Other 26 regions were flat last week.　　Cement prices compared with the same period last month: (1) Harbin, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Haikou, Lanzhou, Xining Rise 1-10% Unequal, (2) Nanchang, Chongqing, Chengdu declined 1-8% range, (3) Other 21 cities one months since the price of cement has not changed.　　This week Qinhuangdao and 31 coal prices were flat last week: (1) Jinan, Changsha compared to the same period last month about 4-7%; (2) Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing were about turnover higher than the same period last month; (3) Other 26 cities are currently flat on coal prices in the same period last month.　　This week the national "cement-coal price difference" is 0.32% higher than last week: (1) Guangzhou, Haikou, Lanzhou, "price difference" than last week, 2.1%, 12.3%, 5.3%, (2) Nanchang, Chongqing, "price difference" than last week, 2.6%, 8.1%; (3) Other 26 cities were flat last week.　　This week the national "cement-coal price difference" was 0.79% higher than the same period last month: (1) Nanjing, Hangzhou, Changsha, Guangzhou, Lanzhou and other than the same period of high 1-12%, (2) Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Nanchang, Chongqing, Chengdu, Low 1-9% Range, (3) 16 other cities unchanged. This week to track the Valuation Time series: (1) huaxin, Tianshan relative A-share premium of 1.3, 1.2 times times, horse racing industry discount 0.7 times times, Qilian, Jidong Cement and a A-share PE-similar, (2) Ton market value Huaxin 271, Tianshan 343 lowest, pine 1177, horse racing industry 971 highest ... The cement periodical is reflected as the profit annual cycle from the long-term view, and it is also reflected as the seasonal short season.　　The fluctuation of the short-term cement price is the embodiment of the long period supply and demand relation and the cost change in the time, and it is affected and decided by the short-term weather such as high temperature and rainy. South Meiyu and other rainy season caused outdoor construction difficulties, short-term reduction of cement demand. The production and demand of cement in the month of Meiyu season were significantly lower than last month.　　The month cement price has the downward pressure, the ton margin due to the cement price and the construction rate drops the ring last month has the downward pressure. Cyclical industry valuations have been boosted by the start of last year's infrastructure investment policy, which first slashed cement valuations and then expected a recovery. Recent real estate trading activity has greatly increased the real estate valuation, after the real estate construction and materials.　　The most direct beneficiaries affect the first/largest. The above logical cement valuation is determined by the direct factor. The real estate transaction quantity is the indirect factor, the cement price is the direct factor. If the June traditional off-season cement price does not rise or fall, the real estate transaction volume declines, the cement valuation under this background is difficult to obtain the substantial substantial promotion.